Mafia

AHEM.

I am officially declaring my suspicion of Yeano. My arguments:



What I find odd about this is how easily he attributed the mafia kills from last round to being random, and decided it was worth mentioning. I've played games with Yeano before and he should know that something I end up saying a lot in mafia games is that "you shouldn't use the mafia's kill targets as evidence of anything." The implication being that early in the game, mafia kills will typically be random, and you shouldn't put too much bearing on who the mafia decides to kill. Therefore, what he said could be true, but his statement that the kills were "randomly decided" is redundant and kind of unfitting, because that should naturally be the conclusion you make at first, and it didn't seem like it needed to be pointed out. Later on, though, we began theorizing the possibility that Feral could be a power role. If Feral did end up getting a power role, then the mafia knew exactly who they wanted to kill with their Assassin, even if Feral wasn't the Assassin target. In this case, bringing up the idea that the kills were "randomly decided" seems like it would just be intended to draw attention away from the fact that they might have known something about their kill targets. Regardless of his intentions, I find what he said out of character for him.

I also think Yeano is playing a very passive game compared to usual. He's doing too little thinking on his own and is waiting for other people to point fingers for him to bandwagon on.



This pretty much sums up exactly what I mean. He's waiting for other people to come up with ideas, and even after they present their ideas, he's waiting for them to get the bandwagon rolling before joining on. I know in the past when Yeano was a town-sided role, he'd be vocal and point out his suspicions. This seems out of character for him. While he did vote for Castrael last round, it took him until a bandwagon had already started for him to do so.

He also mentioned to me during Day 2 in private how he thought Hindenburg was likely the Vigilante. Night 2, Hindenburg and Count Dooku die. Granted, I can understand why he would come to a conclusion like that, and I assume other players might have come to a similar one, but I found it odd none the less.

I will however hold my vote for now in case we get any news from the Cop or Sensor, but this is my current lead right now.

Okay, so since Castrael turned out to be Mafia, I'm feeling less suspicious of Redack now. It's always possible that he used her as a sacrificial lamb to make himself appear more innocent, but since she turned out to be the Janitor and not just a simple Mafia member, that seems less likely to me and I'm not going to worry about him for now. I'm also less concerned about Kyon, since he was the first one to cast a vote for Castrael.

It was kind of the Mafia to take out Hindenburg, since I had absolutely no read on him either way. Also didn't really have a good idea of Dooku's alignment, so I guess that works as well. I'm still a little wary of Yeano, especially if it turns out the Sensor is dead, and I'm also a little curious about chief's continued survival given that he claimed Townie on the first round--you'd think the Assassin would have taken him out by now. Speed's attempted deflection of the vote away from Castrael and onto CtR had me raising an eyebrow as well, although I can understand why he did it.

At this point, I'm not confident that Feral was just a normal Townie, and it seems more likely to me that he was the Sensor than the Cop. The question is whether we want to continue killing aggressively when we know there's a chance the Sensor isn't even around anymore. Aggressive play has worked out well for us so far, so it may be worth it to continue (and losing two players each night means our numbers are going to fall very quickly), but it'll evaporate even faster if we make wrong decisions. I have a relatively small number of people that I'd be willing to vote for today, but I'm not confident that any of them are guilty.

Ninja'd by MM9. We seem to be on the same page with some of our suspicions this game. {:P} I agree that Yeano is the most suspicious player, for the reasons that I stated last round. There is a brief question in my mind as to why Yeano would even mention his thoughts on Hindenburg to you if the Mafia were going to target him anyway, but I'd be perfectly fine with taking Yeano out today based on his posts thus far.

I'm not seeing the Yeano thing right now and you've (Majora) been seriously wrong about him in previous games by basing it on how he plays elsewhere... Like that game no one believed he was mafia >.<

The reason is simple. Based on what people said in Day 1, I found some people who could potentially be town power roles. True, there's not much to go on, but if I were mafia, I would have taken out one of those players with some sort of possibility instead of Trever or Feral. Those players have not yet been killed, and so that's why I was surprised by the random nature of things.



I believe in past games, you've stated it's "impossible to read" me. Funny that you would know my play style perfectly now when it has been "impossible to read" me in the past.

The reason I haven't been vocal yet? I don't have much to go on. I've been cleaning my apartment this week and have been pretty busy, so I may not have read some of the things posted in Day 1 and Day 2 carefully enough, but my initial read didn't have too much which struck me as mafia.



I just wanted to see Kyon's reaction. Which is the same reason I questioned him yesterday after saying, "DIE" and voting for Castrael with no other reason. True, I don't have much to go on, but I am intrigued by the deductions of white lancer. It seems we have similar thought processes.





That's how I will respond to that one. It's very easy to see why Hindenburg would be targeted. He's a generally loose cannon player, and it seems like the vigilante is ready to kill without much information at all. It fits his playing style quite well, and I'm sure several of us must have considered him too.

On a slightly different note, here's an interesting strategy that I just thought of which the mafia could be using.

Suppose that Feral was just a regular townie, but the mafia wants to make it seem like Feral was the Sensor. They hide Feral's body, spread doubt about the likely outcome that Feral was just a Townie, and then lure out the actual Sensor using this.

If everyone thinks the Sensor is dead, then the town will be less likely to kill someone without strong evidence. Losing potentially four people in a single day/night round combination without any gain is horrible. So with the town less likely to kill, the Mafia doesn't have to worry about the Sensor as much.

Additionally, if the Sensor were still alive when the town questions whether he's alive or not, the Sensor would likely drop subtle hints, such as saying something like, "It's possible that the Sensor is still alive, so we should kill someone anyway." This would enable the mafia to locate the Sensor more easily and take out the potentially biggest threat without too much effort.

Now, sure, this may not be what happened. But who is the first person that pointed out Feral could have been the Sensor? Speed Bike Pro, so that's a little suspicious. Also, who was the person to convince white lancer not to have faith in Feral being just a townie? Why, that was you, Majora. Again, this theory may not be the strategy the Mafia is using, but it's a strong possibility, and, to be quite honest, fits you like a glove.

So did Cas, and look where that ended up. I'm starting to see something wrong with the way Chief's playing -- usually when you claim Townie on Day 1, if you're not Mafia-fodder that night, you're lynched that day, and Chief has avoided that thus far.

I still feel like CtR has been playing too under-the-radar even for him, and usually that only happens when he's Mafia. Holding my vote pending further discussion.

Chief didn't backtrack and attempt to claim to be "anything" after already making a safe claim on townie.

I'm not seeing the Yeano thing right now and you've (Majora) been seriously wrong about him in previous games by basing it on how he plays elsewhere... Like that game no one believed he was mafia >.<

That's not quite how I remember that game going. As I recall, MM9 was initially very suspicious of Yeano but backed down after talking to him on AIM. I wouldn't write his suspicions off so easily.

Suppose that Feral was just a regular townie, but the mafia wants to make it seem like Feral was the Sensor. They hide Feral's body, spread doubt about the likely outcome that Feral was just a Townie, and then lure out the actual Sensor using this.

Interesting theory, and one that would make sense. After all, it would effectively neutralize the Sensor role without them even having to kill him. And yes, Speed and MM9 were the ones that convinced me to reconsider my initial certainty that Feral was a Townie. Redack also mentioned to me that he thought Feral was the Sensor. I take it you favor an aggressive approach, then?

Chief didn't backtrack and attempt to claim to be "anything" after already making a safe claim on townie.

No, but it is still curious to me that he wouldn't be targeted by the Assassin after making that safe claim. Even if the Mafia thought he was lying, it would seem to make sense for them to use their regular nightkill on him. I mean, I'm not overly suspicious of chief, because I think it's very possible they just felt like they had higher-priority targets (e.g. if they felt Hindenburg might have been the Vigilante), but it was curious enough that I felt it warranted mentioning.

My my my.... Interesting... Most interesting indeed.... Hah...

Rest in peace, Hindenburg... You'll never be forgotten... *salutes your grave (cry)

Well, with the way my mind has been trained to think deductively, I admit that there is a possibility that Feral was the Sensor. However, I feel it is much more likely that Feral was just a Townie. The fact that the Assassin most certainly killed either Trever or Feral, and the fact that Trever was the Governor despite no indication that he was the Governor, leads me to believe that Feral is likely a Townie and was likely the Assassin target.

As was pointed out earlier in the game, there's a very high chance for the Assassin to target a Townie and get it right. For the Assassin to target Feral as the Sensor or Cop, based on what little we knew from Day 1, would be extremely reckless.

I guess Majora's theory from last round that Feral could have been the cop, checked the Godfather, and then contacted the Godfather is also a possibility, but again, it's very unlikely.

Just based on the likelihood of how things went down, Feral was probably a Townie, and we should still try to get Sensor information.

So, I guess, in some aspect, I do want to play an aggressive game at this point. In all likelihood, the Sensor is gathering information from our kills, so it would be helpful, provided that the Sensor reveals at the right time.



Well, since the possibility exists, though, I would like to hear why. If it is compelling enough, it could change my mind on things.

I don't feel like going back over previous threads at this very moment but these are my thoughts just from reading over this thread:

The mafia likely used their team kill on Hindy and the Assassin kill on Dooku.

Feral was 100% the sensor.

On my 1-10 scale of being mafia, CtR Black is a 9, Yeano is an 8, and chiefsonny is a 5.

I was hoping to do this at the end of the game so as not to ruin the game. But here goes.

The way I handled my concerns about game related things in Game 17 was wrong. It was the wrong venue.
I have since apologized to white lancer and both Host.
Was going to apologize to all the player's before this game started but got busy with irl stuff and forgot.
So I will do that now.
I apologize to everyone that played in for Game 17 for screwing it up. I'm very sorry.

I was not going to play in this game because I figured there would be a target on my back from day one. But I didn't want to break my streak of playing in every game. So I signed up.

What I decided to do was if I got the one role that had no impact on the game other than a number (i.e. townie) I was going to role claim even though anyone that knows how I play, I'm usually against that.
I wanted to do this so that if anyone was pissed enough to want to take me out (And I understand why they would) by role claiming it would let them know that they could be safe in doing so because none of our Town Power Roles would be affected.

Had I gotten a Mafia Role or 3rd Party Role, then I would not have been able to role claim and would just play it out and hope for the best.

If you guys want to lynch me. that's fine. I understand and have no problem with it.
As I said at this point for me it's not about game points, it's about playing the game. Which I enjoy doing.

And I hope by next game, this is all behind us and I can play my normal dumb play.{:P}

Sorry about the long rant.

K

Hold on, Bandit. If chief is a townie, then it wouldn't be worth it to waste a lynch on him. If we keep losing 2 people a night, we need to be as smart as possible. And it wouldn't be smart to lynch someone who has given up unless they flat-out say they are mafia.

It's not a matter of giving up. It's telling you guy's if you think you need to lynch me, it's not going to hurt the town other than losing a number, but no power role.

I want the town to win and I'd love to be alive at the end as would all of you.

I agree with Speed re: chief. Best to let him soak up a Mafia kill than waste a town vote taking him out. @chief: I think that was an appropriate post, so no need to worry about it. It makes sense to me.

Well, with the way my mind has been trained to think deductively, I admit that there is a possibility that Feral was the Sensor. However, I feel it is much more likely that Feral was just a Townie. The fact that the Assassin most certainly killed either Trever or Feral, and the fact that Trever was the Governor despite no indication that he was the Governor, leads me to believe that Feral is likely a Townie and was likely the Assassin target.

Yep, that was my initial assessment as well. It makes sense, though I've backed off from considering it to be 100% true.

Well, since the possibility exists, though, I would like to hear why. If it is compelling enough, it could change my mind on things.

Redack will probably have to speak for himself, but I suspect it has to do with the post Speed brought up as well as the possibility of out-of-game communication.

Feral was 100% the sensor.

100%? Why are you so confident? I agree that there's definitely a chance, but I'm not certain of it by any means.

No worries, chief. Given the situation from Game 17.1, I can completely understand. I won't vote for you, though, as I feel that would be a waste of my vote, even in the name of Sensor information. After all, if we lynch a Townie and then we lose two a night (Mafia kill, Assassin kill), we'll hand this game to the Mafia by Night 5/Day 6, if my calculations are correct.

Thanks for understanding.

The reason I wanted to wait until the end of the game to make that post was because I didn't want anyone to think I was just trying to avoid a lynch.
But it looked like it need to be cleared up before that.

I just hope our Cop is a active player. If so he has had a chance to check at least to people. And maybe he can give a report before the ratio comes even. Don't even want to think about that.

And to say Feral is 100% Sensor without saying how you know that, gives me a lot of concern.

I imagine Hindy's last words were "This is good, isn't it....?"


also fyi I lead the charge on Cas, I'll start making preparations of the parade.

Sorry, I should have said 99% if that'd make you feel better. The point being that I am absolutely certain of it and we should operate under the assumption that we have lost the Sensor.

Sorry, I should have said 99% if that'd make you feel better. The point being that I am absolutely certain of it and we should operate under the assumption that we have lost the Sensor.

But what if he was the cop? It doesn't seem as though the cop or the sensor have dropped any real hints, so it could be safe to assume that there's a good chance he was one of them, maybe the sensor but maybe the cop. But wouldn't the sensor/cop risk a lot by coming out on just Day 3? Assuming Feral was one of the two, it's much more dangerous for the remaining cop/sensor to come out now, because there's no other roles that can get us explicit information about the Mafia members. I guess the point I was trying to make from the beginning is that it's very likely Feral was either the sensor OR the cop, in contrast to being 99% sure he was the sensor.

Well, he could be the cop, yeah, but I am just going off of his comments before he died and assuming that he was the sensor. It's 50/50 for whether he is the sensor or cop but in my mind, I am leaning towards sensor and would bet my life on that.

Oh right! I forgot specifically what he had said. Well, yeah, I suppose it is more likely he was the sensor.

I'd hope the sensor's still alive, but I agree that we shouldn't rely on that being true. Gonna have to look things over once I get back home this afternoon.

Will there be sacrifice? Yes, and not just mafia, but innocent townspeople as well. Even so...no, because of that, we cannot stop. Even if we need to lynch and kill others, we must persevere. To that end we must become carnage incarnate. We must spill yet more blood, so that the blood already spilt will not be in vain.

I've never said that you're impossible to read. My biggest problem when you play in mafia games is that I want to go out of my way to trust you even when the evidence that you're mafia is staring me in the face. This was my problem last game. I had a very strong feeling that you were mafia (and you were) but I convinced myself that you were innocent just because I felt like I should trust you, simply because of the fact we talk a lot outside of mafia. So I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss my intuition in this situation based on the past, because in the past I've usually been right until a last second change of heart.



I'm going to stop you right here. I do know that you've been busy IRL for the past week, but it's not taking up all of your time, and certainly not enough to distract you from mafia. You did this exact thing last game you were mafia as well. You claimed that you were "less vocal" because of being busy, even though you were clearly active enough to be on AIM and chat, watch videos, etc. You claim that you haven't been able to read too in-depth this game, but your entire reply suggests otherwise. To me it sounds like you have a fairly good grasp on the goings on of this game.



Or you could be mafia and looking for a reason to get people lynched, or protect your Janitor.

As for Hindenburg, the reason I brought up our private conversation was because it was very reminiscent of the time you contacted me in private last game when you were mafia about white lancer. When you said "if I die tonight, white lancer is mafia," and then white lancer ended up dead, and you acted all surprised. At the time you passed it off as "if I was mafia I wouldn't draw attention to myself like that," even though that's exactly what you did at the time. While this is a different situation, it still reminded me of that, and while you can deny any connection, it's still suspicious to me personally, because of the fact that something similar happened just a few games ago when you were mafia.



I'm just bringing up the possibility. If the Janitor never hid Feral's body, or hell, if Trever was just a vanilla townie even, I wouldn't even consider the possibility of Feral being a power role. To assume that he's 100% townie or 100% sensor or 100% cop is being a little too closed-minded considering the Janitor pick for Night 1, IMO. I think it's likely that Feral was a townie, but I'm simply aware of the fact that he could be something else. You also seem to forget that I also concluded that Feral could potentially be the cop.

Not to mention, as white lancer said:



Are you saying you suspect Redack as well? Because while still possible, I find it hard to believe he's mafia after leading the lynch against Castrael.

And it fits me like a glove? How so? If I were mafia, and if we assume Feral was the Assassin target, I wouldn't have suggested the Janitor hide Feral's body. As I said in Day 2, the mafia benefit from hiding Power Roles. Hiding a townie's body is ridiculously pointless, because if the mafia hide a power role they can actually use that to their advantage. To me this shouldn't be a question, because you should know I'm not one to take huge risks like that this early. With the lack of a doctor this game, if Feral was a townie, I would never expect the cop or sensor to come out and prove me wrong.

I'm not dropping my suspicions of you so easily, but nice job trying to turn this on me.

Regarding chiefsonny: The Bandit, you should remove your vote for chiefsonny. There's no point in wasting a lynch on him; let the mafia waste one of their kills on him. He's only hurting the mafia at this point, not the town. We should focus on other people right now.

Your initial comment was in response to my passiveness during days 1 and 2. I pretty much finished up cleaning my apartment right in line with the end of Day 2. Some minor cleaning things still remain, but yes, I've been much more available since the ending of Day 2, so it's not so surprising that I would have a more in-depth understanding of the game at this point than I did in the previous day rounds. So no, my understanding at this point does not reflect that I understood what's been going on the entire game.



Surprisingly enough, the Mafia thread from that game is available to read right now. I went to check up on the "impossible" thing - and you did use the word impossible, but I can see how I misinterpreted it - and I noticed that the role threads were all available. So here, go check it out:

[p:69176]

Search for white lancer's name. Eventually you'll find where I, at the last minute, flipped the gtx0 coin to decide on killing white lancer, essentially breaking the tie of the votes on whom to kill. This was several hours after I told you, "If I die tonight, white lancer is mafia." So it was definitely not a strategy I had employed. Things legitimately happened unexpectedly, and I seriously would not draw attention to myself by doing that.

Of course, maybe you think that now I would do that since the idea was planted in my head, or whatever. But seriously, why would I do something like that now, especially when it caused me so many problems the first time?

But it is kind of interesting that I would tell you I thought Hindenburg was the Vigilante, then he dies, then you try to use that fact to pin it on me.



Why not? If Trever were a Townie and Feral were killed and hidden by the Janitor, I think most of us would assume that Trever was the Assassin target and Feral was the regular mafia kill, making it more likely for him to be a power role than how things have currently gone (since it seems we're all fairly certain Feral was the assassin kill - afterall, who could perceive that Trever was the Governor?)



I did not forget that. It's, in my estimation, a more likely conclusion for Feral to be the Cop than the Sensor, so obviously that's what you went with. What possible way would you be able to make a convincing argument that Feral could have been the Sensor? Saying something like, "Feral mentioned the Sensor in Day 1, so he was probably the Sensor!" wouldn't really be very convincing, even though that is probably what both Speed Bike Pro and Redack are latching onto. In the end, you claiming that Feral could have been the Cop served to (effectively) cast doubt on the likely conclusion that Feral was a regular Townie. The logic flows much more easily along the path "he could have been the cop → he could have been a power role → he could have been the Sensor" than simply stating, "He was 100% the Sensor" or even "He could have been the Sensor."



I never said that you would expect the Sensor to come out and be like, "I AM THE SESNOR. I'M STILL ALIVE, SO GIVE ME INFORMATION."

Rather, I said the person would probably drop subtle hints to their role. And for that matter, they probably wouldn't even realize they were doing it, unless they were very, very careful. For some advanced players, it wouldn't be too much of a stretch to pick up on those subtle, unintended hints.



All right. I guess I am more inclined to agree with you there. But that being said, if you do turn out to be Mafia, it will make it far, far more likely that Feral really is the Sensor or the Cop, so I guess Speed and Redack would be right in that situation, most likely. But I don't know. It all depends on whether you're mafia or not and who else is mafia.



Completely agreed with this.

Damn. I feel like the ugly step child.(cry)

Interesting back-and-forth we've got here. I would like to hear other people's thoughts on this. Anyone (especially our quieter players) care to weigh in?

I do have thoughts, but I'd like to keep them to myself for at least another IRL day.

I'm pretty sure I remember you being fairly active during Day 2. That was during the time you mentioned Hindenburg possibly being the Vigilante. But whatever.



Got my thoughts mixed up. Basically I just meant to reiterate what I said about the Janitor pick from Day 2. Can you honestly say you don't find it odd that, if Feral was a townie Assassin Target, that they would hide his body? I see what you said earlier, trying to turn this around on me and Speed, but as I said, that would be out of character even for me.



If this is the case, then I wouldn't expect Dooku and Hindenburg to have been killed in Night 2. I'd probably expect someone who was talking about Sensor results to be killed, but neither Dooku or Hindenburg mentioned anything about the sensor. In fact, they both only made like 2 posts last round. If I was mafia and hiding Feral was some gambit to lure out the sensor, I did a really terrible job at picking nightkill targets.

I'm still mulling things over in my head. I'll post my vote sometime tomorrow probably.

Having reread the previous two threads, I find myself slightly suspicious of Speed and CtR Black.

First off, Speed's claim that



strikes some wrong notes in me. How could he be so sure Feral was the Sensor unless he's Mafia? Not to mention his claim that his claim about Feral was just his



Reading over this thread, I don't gather such a definite thought; rather, I see that most everyone here feels that Feral was a power role and most likely teh Sensor, but equally likely the Cop or a mere Townie.

And then there's CtR Black. All he posted in Day 1 was



and that's it. He came back in Day 2 attempting to explain why he doesn't play so actively in the first few day rounds:



That's all fine and good, but then, after we all turned on Cas (who turned out to be Mafia), he said



My purile mind sees this as a backdoor claim of Mafia -- firstly because he's apologizing to Castrael about not taking the fall, and secondly because he's certain he'll die this round (if that's what "glob world" actually means).

And let's not forget Kaotic, who hasn't said a damned thing this whole game (at least not in the main threads -- he could be Mafia or a power role and posting madly in those threads)...

And then there's Majora. If I recall correctly, there was one game when he was Mafia and he and Lancer were going at it in much the same way as he and Yeano are going at it now, even after he had revealed he was Mafia, as if in an attempt to downplay his claim as a joke. Many of his posts near the end of that game were exactly the kind of long, winded-out posts he used above, which in that game were full of erroneous claims and intentional misquotes and misinterpretations of lancer's posts. I can't remember what game that was, or I'd link to it for evidence.

For now, though, CtR has my highest suspicion.

I, too, am highly suspicious of CtR Black but he is the safe vote in my mind. I was going to wait until the end of the round before perhaps deciding on voting for someone else but I am all for getting CtR Black out of the way today.

http://168.144.87.33/~alestan/view.php?post=73360

Since I finally got a chance to read that:

I think one of the biggest differences, after being able to read that from an outside perspective now that the game is long over, is that I seemed way too over-the-top with my reasoning, and my arguments made little sense in retrospect. At the time I was in a defensive position and grasping at straws; the rest of the town knew that the last mafia member was either me or white lancer, and I didn't have much to go on to attack white lancer, so I pretty much made stuff up.

Here I have legitimate concerns about Yeano, and I'm not "sensationalizing" any part of it. While I know previous games could make me seem like an untrustworthy guy in situations when I'm posting walls of text, there have been just as many other games when I've posted lengthy replies and have been correct in my suspicions; most notably when I was going after Yeano several games back (for reference, at the bottom of this page: http://168.144.87.33/~alestan/view.php?post=69283 ). I'd like to think that you guys can understand my plight in this case.

That is true.

I agree with Black Yoshi on some of his points, but especially with his suspicions of CtR, which Speed also seems to share. But, I'd like to hear more of what Speed has to say about CtR since he said he had more thoughts to share. So I'll wait for that.

I expect to be home from my travels this evening, at which point I will have some thoughts to share. I've been keeping up with the events in this game and there are a couple things that don't sit well with me.

Just in case no one else moves to stop Bandit's vote on chief...

My my... A most peculiar turn of events...

Day 3 ends tomorrow morning so it'd be best to decide on our lynch vote by tonight. I'm fine with CtR Black but this MM/Yeano/Redack love triangle is certainly making for some dramatic entertainment.

Redack is a rude butt that keeps harassing me off-site :(.

I'm debating whether I still want to vote for Yeano or not. I still think he's mafia, but he's brought up some valid points I guess. I just really don't want this game to end up in the exact same situation as Game 10.

CtR... I don't particularly find him suspicious, if only because of the fact that he hasn't posted all that much. It's too hard to get any kind of read on him, as well as a few other people that haven't said much.

EH...

Yay, finally back home after a grueling drive back from down south and having to attend two weddings this weekend.

With the round ending pretty soon, I'm not sure if I want to risk making one of my trademark blunders. I had a theory, but I want to see what the next round of night actions will yield before I delve into it further.

Also congrats to Redack for surviving three Day rounds. (duck)

I would like to hear your theory, Jo. Best to get it out before the Night round, I think. Also, I believe I'll be risking making a blunder of my own very soon. {:P}

Welp, long post incoming. I'll go into detail on my reasoning within, but the gist of it is as follows: if the Sensor is dead, then Yeano seems more suspicious to me. If he/she is alive, then my suspicions lean towards CtR Black. As of right now, I'm leaning towards the Sensor being dead for reasons that I will explain, and so I'm voting for Yeano.

I think one of the biggest differences, after being able to read that from an outside perspective now that the game is long over, is that I seemed way too over-the-top with my reasoning, and my arguments made little sense in retrospect.

Your arguments made little sense at the time. Unfortunately, I was the only one who realized it. :(

Anyway, I guess we're not going to get much more input than what we already have on this--I was hoping for more before I posted (more of) my thoughts, but I suppose we'll have to make do with what we have. Ironically, I don't find Majora nearly as suspicious this game as I did that other game. The only thing that makes me a bit wary about him is that he's almost seemed to poach a couple of my own ideas and pass them off as his own, but I think there's a decent enough chance that we came to the same conclusion independently. The other thing is that it's typically a very risky strategy for a Mafia member to pit themselves willingly up against a strong debater, because the longer your post is, the more likely you are to slip up. MM9 has targeted two strong debaters (Redack and Yeano), and if he's Mafia this time he's done a good job at avoiding making any of the mistakes that just scream Mafia. Based on his posts thus far, I could believe that he's simply trying to figure this game out.

I do, however, remain suspicious of Yeano. Something about the way that he's talking just seems odd (maybe calculated?) to me, and if anything my suspicions of him have only grown this day round. It doesn't help that I remember one of his strategies from last game being to encourage an aggressive approach so that we would kill off a lot of our own, and I could see him pulling that here especially if Feral was the Sensor. For me, the biggest question mark about him is that I haven't ever seen him play as a Townie--I don't know if his playing style/typing style would be significantly different if he were innocent. Really, my biggest hangup with voting Yeano is, well, Redack. I'm trusting him more after the Castrael vote, and his instincts are usually better than mine. But if Yeano turns up Guilty...I'm not sure what I'd think about Red.

I do think CtR Black would be an acceptable target, but like MM9 said, it's hard to feel very strongly about him either way. I wouldn't be surprised in the least if he were Guilty, but I don't have a strong read on him either. That being said, I wouldn't complain if that's the direction the Town decided to go--I just feel more strongly about Yeano. {:P}

About the Sensor: in games with the Sensor active, the threat of the Sensor can be almost as effective a weapon as the Sensor's information itself. The Mafia have to react to the Sensor, placing their votes in such a way as to avoid implicating a large number of their own while also not allowing the Sensor's data to clear large numbers of innocents. Because of this, I imagine it's probably possible to predict the Sensor's results pretty close to reality even if the Sensor themself doesn't speak up.

Take this scenario, for instance: there were 12 votes for Castrael last round (well, 13, but Apollo Justice's vote came after the round-ending 12th). For the Sensor data, that essentially splits up the players into two separate groups and gives info on both, and the Mafia would have to apportion their votes accordingly. In this case, that would probably mean 2 surviving Mafia members + Castrael in the first group (because it is larger and leaves more room to hide) and 1 in the smaller group (the Godfather, which I believe is immune--if you could clarify that, Roxas, that would be great). With this in mind, I find the breakdown of the groups to be very interesting:

Kyon
Redack
white lancer
Hindenburg
Black Yoshi
The Bandit
FAW
Yeano
MM9
Speed Bike Pro
chiefsonny
Castrael

Apollo Justice
Count Dooku
Pirate_Ninja
CtR Black
Kaotic
Jo Nathan

You'll notice that the second group contains no surprises--they are all people who are busy or otherwise and who have been posting a couple of times a day at most (and I wouldn't take Apollo being in that group as anything--odds are good she expected her vote to count for Sensor data). That could indicate nothing, but it's interesting to me that the votes seem laid out more or less, which could indicate that the Mafia didn't have to scramble if they wanted to do the logical 2-1 split (again, Godfather could be anywhere).

Where it gets even more interesting to me is that the Mafia then went and targeted a player in the smaller group (Count Dooku). If they did follow the 2-1 split, this would be a very risky play for them, as it helps us narrow down the potential Mafia member in that group further. It's almost akin to sacrificing that member when they're already two members down, since it likely wouldn't take us long to narrow that group down. If the Sensor was dead, however, they wouldn't have to worry about splitting the vote 2-1 or about taking out a member of the smaller group, and that's the direction I'm leaning right now. Although, as I type this I'm growing more suspicious of CtR, since I'm remembering that he did have a chance to vote for Cas last round and chose not to (which could be him playing as the one Mafia member to stick with the smaller group).

To me, the first point I made (about how naturally the voting lines seem to be drawn) is really more secondary to the second one (about how Dooku was killed despite being in the smaller group). Those two taken together lead me to lean more towards the Mafia being unconcerned about the Sensor because I feel like there's a good chance the Mafia have ignored the potential results the Sensor would have gotten. CtR is suspicious, but since I believe the Sensor is more likely dead, I'm following Xhin's advice from the last time Yeano played:

Moral of the story: Always vote for Yeano

{:P}

When does this round end?

should be a little over eleven hours from now, I believe. Which is why I'm looking at voting now and then sleeping on it a bit to see if it needs reconsidering.

Given a lack of experience on which to draw conclusions about "normal" behavior, this has been kinda like picking a needle out of a haystack. With chopsticks. My suspicions have been pretty flexible and vague for the most part. but I think I feel enough to put a tentative vote out there.


ha, it was actually fairly recently that I watched it. The thread title looked familiar at first glance and after thinking about it for a bit the reason hit me like a spinkick in the face. I might disagree with some of his decisions but thumbs-up on the title choice, lol.

In case I fail to get on before the deadline tomorrow morning,

Calculated? Well, I am a mathematician. Ba dum tss.

I think very carefully about what I write, especially when it is likely to be analyzed by others. This is because I want to make my point very clearly, so my statements will not be misconstrued in any way.

That's just how I am. I've always struggled with finding the perfect word to fit the situation. This way, I can accurately represent my thoughts.



Yeah, you're right. I could see myself using that tactic if I were mafia too. And I also see myself using that tactic as a Townie believing that the Sensor is still alive, or even if I am a Townie and believe that the Sensor is dead, depending on if we've got a good lead. No killing, in my opinion, is a stupid route to take unless it strategically helps.

If we've got legitimate suspicions or if we could gain information, I say we should. Usually the information we gain is useful enough to convince us of the innocence or guilt of certain players.



I think I play pretty similarly as Mafia-sided and Town-sided, at least, when I'm on the defensive. I reread an old post of mine in which I was a town-sided role in a game on a different website. My style was very different, but in that post, I was on the offensive, accusing someone else of guilt. That site's players weren't nearly as good as they are here, so it was much easier to pinpoint a member of the Mafia. Here, it's much more difficult.



Let's look at who's still alive, shall we?

Kyon
Redack
white lancer
Hindenburg
Black Yoshi
The Bandit
FAW
Yeano
MM9
Speed Bike Pro
chiefsonny
Castrael

Apollo Justice
Count Dooku
Pirate_Ninja
CtR Black
Kaotic
Jo Nathan

Okay, so out of the first group, how many people were alive going into the night round? 11. Of the second group, how many people were alive going into the night round? 6.

1 was killed from each group, making the current remaining totals from each group at 10 and 5, respectively.

If you are correct in how the Mafia chose to split up their votes, then 2 would be in the group of 10, and 1 would be in the group of 5. That is still a 20% in either group of killing a Mafia member at random. It's equal in both cases.

If the Mafia had chosen to kill two in the first group, there would be 2/9 mafia members in that group, giving an approximately 22% chance of hitting a Mafia member. With 1/6 in the second group, there would be an approximately 17% chance of hitting a Mafia member in that group.

While, yes, statistically it would be safer for the Mafia to have killed two people in the first group, we're only talking about 3% difference. That doesn't have a very significant impact. And yes, I know, events with a 3% likelihood of occurring do occur, but I still don't think this is as significant of a swing as you are portraying it.

That's my mathematical analysis anyway.

It's entirely possible that the Sensor is dead, and with the points that have been brought up, I do find myself agreeing more, even though I would be quite surprised to see the Mafia target either Trever or Feral with the assassin on Night 1, if Feral was indeed the Sensor.

The willingness to take such a risk or the possibility that they had outside information could probably narrow down potential Mafia members, if we want to assume that the Sensor is dead.



Xhin also found me suspicious in that game because I used the word "guys." Just thought I'd like to point that out.

Also, I would like to drive this home again.

The thing that makes white lancer most suspicious of me is the fact that if the Sensor is alive, then we have a 3% greater chance of killing a Mafia member from the second group based on the Mafia kills last night (but have a 2% smaller chance of killing a Mafia member from the first group). Apparently this 3% chance is so big that the Sensor is obviously dead, and I am obviously trying to hide that fact.

I have to say that, I do think Yeano or MM are liekly in the Mafia, but after reading their back-and-forth, I have no idea which one is. But, I don't want to vote Yeano just because everyone seems to be hopping that bandwagon.

So, for now, I'll stick with my original suspicions. Because even if it's one of them, there's still 2/3 other people in the Mafia. And either of them can be lynched later, when we're more sure who it is. Hopefully by that point, the cop/sensor can come out and reveal their findings.

*LIKELY

I'm in a similar boat as Apollo. I'm keeping my eyes on MM/Yeano but I don't want to rush a vote for one of them like I did with my last reply. Instead, I'll take the safe option and vote CtR and I'd strongly suggest others follow suit so we can for-sure lynch him. Besides, that gives more time for MM and Yeano to make out while we watch, which means more time for both of them to continue providing evidence towards their roles.

Therefore,

Hmmm...some of the things Speed has said in this round especially have raised some red flags with me. However, CtR is probably the best option. His playing style this game seems to scream Mafia. Majora and lancer claimed last round that they could not get a good read off of CtR since he hasn't posted all that much, but I feel that it's because of his inactivity, and because of what he's said when he has posted, that he is so suspicious.

I was considering holding my vote for now, but seeing as we've got little less than three hours left in this round and I have a 9:15 class and probably won't be on until nearly the last second...

Went back and read through all the threads and a lot of people made some very good points.
My thoughts.

It's very hard for me to read anything in to what Yeano has said because I have nothing to base his playing style on. If I'm right, I think this is only his 2nd game playing.

CtR Black is normally quiet the first day or two, but not this quiet.

Another thing that gives me some concern is if Kaotic is our Cop, we could be in a world of hurt.

I have a gut feeling Yeano is a power role. But which side? I'm going to play it safe. Or at least I hope it's a safe vote and he's not a townie.

Hmmm...some of the things Speed has said in this round especially have raised some red flags with me.

Bah hah hah... Quite amusing, really...

This looks like a no brainer to me.

I just woke up and don't feel like typing a bunch, and the round is almost over with anyway, but just to give a few quick reasons:

1. He's acted like a weirdo the entire game.

2. Everytime someone have voted for him, he's turned it around and accused the other person of being suspicious (first Majora, now Lancer).

I think CtR might be mafia as well, and I'll probably go ahead and vote for him next round. But this seems like a sure bet to me.

I think CtR might be mafia as well, and I'll probably go ahead and vote for him next round. But this seems like a sure bet to me.

The sure bet is voting for CtR Black today. By voting for Yeano, if you truly are town-based, your vote is a detriment to us because it increases the probability of a tie in votes (aka, a no kill) or perhaps even Yeano dying, whereas killing CtR can only serve to benefit the town. I would strongly suggest aligning yourself with this vote and we can move on to others, such as possibly Yeano, in Day 4.

k watever

Well, with my vote, Yeano will only need one more vote. I see Pirate_Ninja is online, so maybe he could join in with me and Yeano could be lynched?

I'm still suspicious of Yeano. CtR Black, as I said, hasn't really done anything to warrant me voting for him just yet. I kind of agree with what lancer said earlier, regarding Xhin's quote from last game, despite its humorous intentions. I can't really say I trust Yeano at all.

this is the main reason I've been floating around before the deadline. I'm not especially set on voting for one person over another right now, but I definitely don't think it'll be of much use to let things end up a draw. I can't say for sure whether this is the right choice, but I do feel a draw would be a wrong one.

Probably meaningless at this point, but what the hell.

Well, with my vote, Yeano will only need one more vote. I see Pirate_Ninja is online, so maybe he could join in with me and Yeano could be lynched?

My point, though, is that I am unsure of Yeano's role. I'd like more time before I come to that kind of conclusion, and a night round + another day round should suffice. But for now, I am content with my decision to vote CtR Black.

Err, forgot to put in the vote. But I guess it doesn't matter now?

I still think this is a bad idea. I'm actually much more suspicious of Black Yoshi than CtR Black honestly. I can't say I have time to go into my reasoning now, I might try to spit it out in the final minutes of the round or go into detail next round. Curious what the mafia's reaction to me saying that would be..