Starting to think that someone is not who they say they are...........

Well, we can afford a mislynch, who do you fancy putting your money down on? I'm inclined to believe Xhin's doctor claim since no one has came forward with a counterclaim yet. Also, who did you watch last night Speed? I'm thinking it's EvilGuy, but I think we should let Lancer use his kill before we decide.

I've now put in the kill request (for the record, I would have gone with this even if Kyon hadn't been hostkilled). I expect that will probably end the game, so no point in saying anything else until the hit is carried out.

The one time I think I had everything figured out too...Guess it's not my day to shine today. (cry)

Well, by that comment I'm worried that it's me...and if it's true then I'll just post before either the game ends or I die.

I know who the lair is.

I.....can't resist speaking. I just want to correct a mistake I made. I said last Day round that it was clear which role the janitor hid which was a passenger correct? Turns out I was wrong about that. No passengers were hidden in the making of this game.

Okay now I'll shut up.

Alright Lancer, who shall it be? Xhin or SBP? I'm going to go ahead and say speed because if he were the doctor he would have counter claimed xhin by now.

I watched lancer last night.

Out of all the roleclaims, the one I doubt the most would be Ghowilo but the only thing making me second guess myself is his "roll of the dice" comment from Day 1 before the Gambler could have even died. Buuut white lancer is almost 100% the second Lover and no one has counterclaimed Doctor, so...

Interesting twist of fate here...we definitely need to lynch someone today because then we'll have a 50-50 shot of winning via Doctor save even if we're wrong. Here's how it breaks down:

1. Xhin and myself are 100% innocent. We know that both the Doctor and the Lover are still alive since they've both acted this game, and there have been no counterclaims (not to mention Feral cleared my name before he died).

2. Ghowilo has been off my radar as Mafia for a while...but there's been pretty good reason for that as he had both an early roleclaim and, more importantly, every single member of the Mafia save Chaos has attempted to get him lynched. That was part of why we were able to figure them out in the first place (although I did have other reasons for suspecting Jo and chief). This would be quite an unorthodox strategy for the Mafia, since it was pretty relentless and wound up getting most of them killed--I suppose there's a chance they simply expected Ghow to get lynched and were hoping to look innocent by 'catching' him, only to have it backfire. If that was the plan, it seems to have worked in some fashion, at least getting them to 50-50. Ghow also attempted to get Xhin voted off, but he was very adamant about voting off Hindenburg before that.

3. Speed Bike Pro is the one who stands out to me here. Before EvilGuy attempted to tie the votes between Jo Nathan and Xhin with no reasoning given (at least at first), I had Speed third on my suspect list behind chief and Jo. Part of this was based on his attempt to cast suspicion on Ghowilo--very similar to what Hindenburg, Jo Nathan, and chief all did--but obviously that's not a great barometer for choosing between him and Ghow. The more relevant parts of my suspicion for him were (a) his relative inactivity and (b) his suspicions throughout the game, which have been (as I recall) almost universally wrong (he listed myself, EvilGuy, Xhin, and Ghow as Mafia on Day 4, and we know for a fact that 75% of those are incorrect).

Speed was first to vote for Chaos after me, but Ghowilo was immediately after him, and Ghow has voted for every single Mafia member (+Xhin). I also feel like Speed's roleclaim was the more 'convenient' of claims, especially since I already had a strong feeling that the Watcher was dead...it's also interesting to note that he's given us no information other than the one on chief, when we were already planning on voting chief out that day anyway. I'm going to hold my vote for now and double-check a few things, but my vote is probably going to go to Speed.

Sorry, EG--I thought it was strange that you would take out Feral since he was the one willing to give you another day to survive, but I figured it was better to go with the obvious choice and tackle the less-obvious second. I almost posted something very like the above before you died, but figured I might not need to. :(

That's interesting.. It may be too early to jump on a bandwagon though so I'm going to look at speed's actions in more detail tonight.

I know I'm innocent, and I know white lancer is innocent. I could have *sworn* Ghowilo was the other lover... I'd like to vote for him because it seems like the best option but he played way too aggressively in the beginning of the game for him to really be mafia.

Okay okay, so Ghowilo claimed the gambler. That makes sense. Either he's lying or Speed is lying, and hezekiah was whoever the real one was.

I'm leaning towards voting speed.. but I'm going to look at both of them when I get home tonight.

-Me: Day 1

~Faulty Percentages Day 2~



-Me: Day 2



-Me: Day 3


-Me: Day 3


-Me: Day 3


-Me: Day 3


-Me: Day 4

Then chief finally figured it out and I openly role claimed.

Hoping this helps.

Alright, let us know what you see, Xhin, just in case it's different than what I see. I went through the threads and the following jumped out at me:

Day 2 (CtR Black voted out - Innocent)

You know who else used math, probability, and numbers? Prohibition kingpins, AKA mafia. Hindenburg voted for Ghowilo

Probably not super relevant, because it's hard to tell how serious it was, but it was the first time a Mafia member targeted Ghowilo.

I am a little leery of Ghowilo, to be quite honest, as there are several things he said that don't sit well with me.

First, he immediately went off of the assumption that PN is innocent, almost as if he knows it to be a fact. Of course I could be reading too much into this.

But other things aren't jiving with me either. We're only on Day 2 and he's pushing to get the watcher to reveal their identity, putting them at risk. I realize though that this could be a legitimate strategy as long as the doctor protects them (unless hez was the doctor... and the odds of that are slim).

And honestly I don't think a Day 1 joke vote is solid grounds for lynching Xhin.

So I guess I'm on the fence regarding Ghowilo because I could see him going either way, but I'm probably 55% in favor of voting for him at this point.

That's Jo Nathan, shortly thereafter, and it's one of the strongest reasons for thinking Ghow is innocent IMO.

-I also disagree with Jo Nathan about Ghowilo. Although his analysis was not correct, the fact that he gave such a detailed post at all at this point in the game leads me to believe that he's more likely to be innocent. It just usually isn't in the mafia MO to make a post of that kind this early.

That's Bandit, obviously innocent. It's part of sort of a theme I've noticed where the confirmed innocent players had an 'innocent' read on Ghow while the Mafia players said he was suspicious (although CtR did seem vaguely suspicious of Ghow during this day round). Obviously Bandit couldn't know 100% any more than we can, but his analysis makes sense to me.

Following this, Bandit starts a bandwagon against CtR. Ghow is the second vote on this bandwagon, tying the votes at 2-2-2. After Feral votes for CtR, Speed votes for Flare (so he didn't jump on the bandwagon, but he also voted for another innocent player). After a few back-and-forth posts, Ghowilo jumps off the CtR bandwagon and attempts to vote off Hindenburg...not sure what we can take from that. It could be that he was legitimately trying to figure things out at this point, but you could also make a case for either Speed or Ghow that they refrained from voting for CtR (who looked likely to die anyway) to make themselves look more innocent.

At this point I don't think Lady Flare, Hindenburg or The Bandit are Mafia, but I do have some suspension about Feral, Ghowilo. And that's because they spend most of their time trying to convince us they are townie.

That's chiefsonny, making the third Mafia member who pointed out Ghowilo as suspicious in the same day round. Day 2 does seem a little early for the Mafia to try to throw one of their own under the bus.

Day 3 (Chaos Incarnate voted out - Guilty

Ghowilo votes for Hindenburg in the very first post. Chief then comments:

You know what amazes me is that the first post from Ghowilo is a kill post. We have 72 hours to get to do this.

Seems to me a real townie would be concerned about other things first.

Another attempt to cast Ghowilo as suspicious.

The problem I have with using Hindy as a litmus test for the Novelist is that, even if he IS mafia, there's nothing stopping the Novelist from being an epic memelord the rest of the game. Remember, their goal is to provoke lynches, not side with any one team (and any one who plays it that way is doing it incorrectly).

That's Speed, on the subject of voting off Hindenburg. I'm not sure how strongly I would rate this as evidence, though--I was thinking largely along the same lines, and it's not unusual for Speed to try to prevent the 'default' lynches on Hindenburg.

Perhaps hezekiah was the Doc. Either that or they just wanted to protect someone they deemed a higher priority. There were a couple people bringing up the possibility of the mafia silencing one of their own, after all.

One of the posts that I think is in Speed's favor, as if he was the Watcher he would certainly be concerned with the Doctor still being alive. I don't think this is particularly strong evidence either, however.

I'm not going to lie, I just want to kill hindenburg {look}

So you're only playing this game to kill Hindenburg without knowing his role or the effect it would have on the town if his is a Townie?

Ghowilo and chief again.

Ghow then votes for Bandit and Feral, and continues to throw out more Gambler references (I haven't been recording those because Ghow just did, but I do think they're relevant).

I've been out of the loop for the past couple days so I'll have to catch up on this round and the end of round 2, but there definitely seems to be some funny business going on here.

For one thing, I find Ghowilo's behavior this round strikingly similar to his behavior in the last game when he was Mafia and voted off. Did he ever act like this previously when he was innocent? I'm having a hell of a time recollecting and I'm only in my 20s... Of course my previous suspicions of him might be affecting my judgement so idk.

All he wants to do is kill hindenburg and stretch the page and screw things up for everyone else.

Jo, then chief, both seeming to attempt to throw suspicion on Ghowilo. If this is an attempt to distance themselves from a fellow Mafia member, they are very, very dedicated to this plan.

I am about 90% sure that Ghowilo isn't Mafia. Although killing him may not hurt the Town, we have bigger fish to fry.

Lady Flare, in a similar vein to Bandit, saw Ghowilo as likely innocent (though to be fair, I believe she thought he was the Journalist, which Feral and I were also discussing).

I then start the vote for Chaos, and Speed and Ghowilo both jump on immediately. At this point, I recall thinking both of them were probably innocent.

Day 4 (Hindenburg lynched - Guilty)

Ghowilo starts off the day voting for Xhin, citing his statistics. Speed then says this:

Or we could, like... not rely on irrelevant number mumbo jumbo to decide who we kill...

That's a point in Speed's favor, I believe.

Ghowilo, white lancer, EvilGuy, and Xhin are mafia. I'll eat a shoe if I'm wrong.

This is the post from Speed that I mentioned before...obviously he was incorrect about at least 75% of those. It's also strange to me that he picked both Ghowilo and Xhin despite Ghow spending most of the game trying to vote Xhin out.

Anyway, Ghowilo's bizarre insistence on buttfuck numbers may be a ploy to confuse the fuck out of everyone, therefore aiding the Mafia. Or maybe it's just me who is utterly dumbfounded by everything he says. Just food for thought.

Hindenburg again.

At first, I was dismissing Ghowilo as just being Ghowilo but I actually wouldn't be very surprised if he was putting on a massive shitshow while the rest of the mafia just creep from under the bleachers.

And a remarkably similar point made by Speed. Ghow responds by referencing the 'code' he was laying out for us (obviously the Gambler references).

I don't want to kill Speed at this time. My reason being, he was the second person to vote for Chaos. This doesn't mean he's innocent but I'm loath to vote for him. White lancer was first to vote for Chaos, so unless he was throwing a teammate under the bus, I think he's probably innocent as well. And we have Ghowilo as the third vote. I skimmed over all the math stuff. But I think he is honestly trying to narrow down the field. Btw, I thought he was the Journalist.

Flare didn't see either of them as suspicious, which obviously doesn't help much at all.

Bandit then starts the vote for Hindenburg, and Ghowilo jumps on as the fourth vote.

For what it's worth my gut and all the reading I've done leads me to believe that 3 of the 4 remaing Mafia are:

Xhin
Feral
Ghowilo

I think Speed might have it right about Ghowilo. First he post all this Math crap.
The he makes a post about only wanting to play so he can kill Hindenburg

And now he wants us to believe he's been sending us code

And now he wants to kill Xhin

Is this just another attempt to take attention away from other mafia members.

Well if it is. I'm not buying it anymore.

Chief again, casting a vote for Xhin but throwing yet more suspicion on Ghowilo in the process. Ghowilo then references his code again and chief figures out that Ghow is claiming Gambler.

I don't have time to finish the read-through now, but more will come.

Real quick wrap-up, since the rest of the rounds were very quick (also Speed barely posted at all on Day 5)

Day 5 - No Kill

Ghow starts this day round off by voting for Xhin, which is troubling (as is his switch after chief comes in to vote for Xhin), but it is consistent with how he had been playing thus far. He did switch to EG and then immediately to Jo Nathan to avoid the tie, but moved back to Xhin when it became apparent that that lynch was a possibility.

Why didn't our Doc protect The Bandit. You have to think that he would be considered a Mafia target with all the posting he was doing.

Now the Doc may be hezy. But I'm more inclined to think the Doc has just been protecting his self.

And we are now into day 5 and no report from the Watcher. Was the Watcher hezy. I'm more inclined to believe it is someone that's not active and was not used his power or doesn't want to put a target on his back.

Anyway, I'm vote I made last round before I changed it to No Kill after Ghowilo role claimed still stands.

chiefsonny Voted for Xhin

This post is interesting to me...it looks like chief was trying to set it up so that we might believe that the Watcher and Doctor might still be alive, setting up for a Mafia member to claim one or the other. This in the same day round where I said I was assuming the Watcher was dead and that I probably wouldn't believe a Watcher claim at this late date.

The next day round Ghow votes very quickly for chief and Speed votes after him, saying that he saw chief visit me that night. I find this strange as well, just because usually a late power role claim like that will come with all of the information that they've gotten over the course of the game, even if it's not particularly useful by that point. I also don't really know why it took Speed so long to roleclaim to begin with and it's a little strange to me that he would be so relatively inactive with such a powerful role. Obviously, the Mafia would know that chief silenced me that round, so this isn't proof of Speed's Watcher claim at all.

Eh. Given everything that I've seen, I think it makes much more sense that Speed is the last Mafia member. For Ghow to be the last Mafia, we would have had to have had almost the entire Mafia trying to throw him under the bus as early as Round 2, and he would have had to have concocted a scheme to make himself LOOK like the Gambler from Day 1. Those two together don't make up a very coherent Mafia strategy. For Xhin to be Mafia, the Mafia would have had to have chosen to not kill anyone two rounds ago, and the way FAW worded that main thread really, really made it sound like a Doctor kill (not to mention that chief attempted to save Jo by getting Xhin lynched). Neither seem very likely given that they both involve very counterintuitive strategies by the Mafia this game. Hope I'm not screwing this up (and those in the Dead thread clearly know who's Guilty by this point, so sorry if I'm wrong! (cry) ), but this seems to make the most sense of it all.

Let's win this thing xhin

Okay, finally here. Yeah I think white lancer makes the best points here really.. I'm sold more on the basis of two things:

Ghowilo claimed gambler early on when he didn't have to

Speed meanwhile claimed watcher really late when it was important to "blend in".

Ghowilo played too aggressively in the early game

Speed played very close to the chest

But the final thing that did it really:

If Speed Bike Pro was the watcher, why didn't he come forward earlier?

If I'm wrong and SBP is innocent, I'm literally going to flip a coin to decide who to save. If ghow does it too then we will live out his gambler fantasy~

GG. The Doctor save on white lancer was the single definitive moment that won the game for the town. But since he lived, there was just no way for me to outplay this. 100% chance in my mind that the mafia would've won if he died that night.

This game was very close for sure. You'll see in the Lovers thread that I had you as my third suspicion after Jo and chief after the first day I was Silenced, but EvilGuy saying that Jo was suspicious and then voting for Xhin instead without explanation (at least until I pressed him for one) and your quick vote for Chaos earlier led me to put him above you. I was still worried about you even after the Watcher claim but I figured EvilGuy had made himself seem suspicious, so I wanted to go with the obvious route first...and I really didn't want to waste a kill on Kyon as I felt him being Mafia was quite unlikely and I wanted to have a chance to make sure of you...and the Doctor stage gave us a cushion we could really leverage.

Doctor save*

gg

after the Hindenburg kill I went back and tried to find something that made me suspicious of SBP, but he seemed to be playing normally so I didn't say anything although I had suspected him somewhat. In fact, there was a good moment where he had me convinced that he was town, were this not between Lancer and Xhin and SBP at this point idk what I would have done, but once Lancer killed Evilguy, I knew without a doubt it was Speed. It was just Lancer and Xhin unanimously deciding that I was to be trusted that gave us the game.

Lots of fun! Good game mafia, and everyone else who played :)