Mafia

Figured as much with chief. I'm now thinking that maybe we should have waited another day. But it's also entirely possible that they had already discovered who the cop was anyway. So at least we got that info.

So I'm now 99.99% sure that MM9 isn't Mafia. Of course it could all have been a big ploy so that the Mafia would be guaranteed to win but that is highly unlikely.

JN was cop-checked innocent and I'm fairly confident he is as well. So, for argument's sake, let's assume us 3 are innocent. That leaves FAW, Kassie, Frustro, CtR, Trever, and 85. Based simply on actions yesterday I'd guess Frustro and 85 are Mafia- they only made one post each though so it's hard to tell. I think CtR might be the FBI Agent, even with the URL issues it's unlike him to be so inactive, so it would make sense. That leaves FAW, Kassie, and Trever. Still on the fence about Trever but I bet there's at least one inactive Mafia- whether it's FAW or Kassie might come down to dumb luck.

Those are just my preliminary thoughts, anyway. Geez, I wish the FBI and Arsonist hadn't been so rash- this would be a completely different game. Remember, it's still mislynch and lose, unless we hit the FBI Agent.

Well, it's most likely that the FBI Agent is one of the people that was inactive last round.

I'm leaning heavily toward voting Trever this round. He seemed to be very hesitant to vote for Zanic last round, and easily jumped aboard the Majora bandwagon and was very hesitant to get off it. Maybe if this was Day 1 or 2, I wouldn't find that suspicious, but remember that we were at a Mislynch and Lose scenario, where the town only needed to convince a couple of townies to vote for an innocent person to get a flawless win. Obviously they'd unintentionally be a little less careful in order to convince the town to vote in their favor.

On the flip-side, I'm (personally, other people may disagree) considering White Thunder and Jo Nathan as pretty much confirmed innocent. I had 2 votes at the end. White Thunder and Jo Nathan could have easily voted for me and not only would I have been lynched, I'd have been eligible for an Execution, resulting in a win.

I know I saw CtR Black online multiple times during the night round, so I don't think he was the FBI Agent. FAW and Kassie have been inactive, so I think it's likely one of those two are the FBI Agent. No real proof though, since activity as a whole has been wonky for everyone.

"but remember that we were at a Mislynch and Lose scenario, where the mafia only needed to convince a couple of townies to vote for an innocent person to get a flawless win"

Fixed.

and easily jumped aboard the Majora bandwagon and was very hesitant to get off it.

Sure, but 85 voted for you very early in the round with little to go on, and Frustro ignored suspicions of Zanic entirely. Trever was just trying to be cautious, and I don't see this as different from his normal playing style. Not that I'm convinced that he's innocent, I just think it's a little bit less likely that he's guilty than the others.

I'm honestly not all that suspicious of #85 right now. He stated Day 1 that he was a vanilla townie, and that matches his inactivity in some of the previous day rounds. I know in past games when he was mafia he was open to falsley roleclaiming in order to drag out certain roles, and doing something like a roleclaim on Day 1 would defeat that.

I'm actually on the fence with #85. Assuming you are innocent (which I think is most likely the case after witnessing the struggle between you and Zanic), #85's vote for you could have been an honest mistake, but it doesn't sit well with me.

My biggest fear is that one of the inactive players that never came back after the URL trouble is Mafia. But I'm not suggesting we pursue that in this round.

I'm waiting for these deaths to get on Saw-levels of gruesome.

And yeeeah, yesterday's actions left a great big "LYNCH ME, STUPIDS!!" mark on me. I ignored Zanic because I was originally so suspicious of Majora that when he turned accusations onto Zanic, I was like, "Yeeeah riiight (shifty)" Then it started making enough sense for me to be completely undecided between him and Majora. So it went from me about to hit the "Lynch Majora" button to just keeping silent altogether and letting the players who actually knew what they were doing decide. Turns out that was the right thing to do on my part.

I envision the final showdown going something like this:

I'll accept that. I was suspicious of Majora as well.

Well, as much as I'd like to accept it, I'm hesitant to. We need to remember that a minimum of one person in the mafia was active in the night, meaning whoever is mafia should be one of the people that's been posting. I'm still leaning toward voting Trever this round.

Trever is definitely one of the more suspicious ones, but he's not top of my list. I'd have to say I'm on the fence with him too just because I know firsthand how you can screw yourself hard by defending the crap out of someone who turns out to be guilty. And it's friggen embarrassing, to say the least. (no)

I will keep him in mind along with a few others, but I can't say there's anyone I'm comfortable voting for yet. I'm on several fences with several people and not sure what to do, so when I get a chance I'll go back and review things again and see if I pick up on anything interesting now that we know Zanic was Mafia.

Jumping the bandwagon would insinuate that I voted for you, when I didn't. I was leaning more towards you, simply because the evidence against you was a bit more damning than the evidence against Zanic, much like how Frustro thought:



I was more outspoken than Frustro, but I took the same path in withholding my vote, which worked out a few games back when Xhin was pushing to take White Thunder, who didn't seem very suspicious to me - and proved to be innocent upon his death. Admittedly, I can see how it is a bit suspicious, but it is quite clearly my style to play the game very cautiously and go for the more obviously suspicious person. I wasn't entirely convinced of Zanic's innocence, but at the same time some of Majora's convictions just weren't adding up.



If anyone was quick to jump the Majora bandwagon, it was 85. He said very little the whole game, yet he quickly moved to vote you off. It's also pretty suspicious to claim a townie role in the first round, as though trying to knock the fact you're innocent into everyone's heads from the very start.

The thought does occur to me that Majora is in fact the Godfather, and the only reason he moved to gun down Zanic was because he was fairly White Thunder would lead the charge against him anyway. Merely a theory, and not nearly evidence is available for me to be anywhere near confident enough to vote for Majora.

#85 has done this in previous games. Whether it's because he doesn't like having a townie role or whatever, he has been known to roleclaim as townie in the first round, as have some other players (like chiefsonny). I'm not ruling him out entirely, I just think it's unlikely at the moment.



Well at this point that wouldn't really make much sense. It was Mislynch and Lose as has been pointed out, the last thing the mafia would think about in that case is causing a huge controversial scene so that maybe one of their group could win. The thing about being mafia is that you're a team and not just one player; if you say "Hey, can you go sacrifice yourself in a flashy way so that I can pull off a win" to one of your team members when you're one day away from a flawless victory... I don't know anyone here who would agree to go along with that.

I'm definitely going to be voting for either Trever or Frustro this round, but I haven't decided who. I've been getting mafia vibes from both of them, and considering the ratio and the fact that mafia members are active, I think it's just too unlikely that both or even one of them are innocent.

But I'm also sure I'm biased due to the fact that Trever and Frustro are the ONLY active players that I haven't considered "confirmed innocent." #85, CtR, FAW, and Kassie haven't said much or anything for the past day, and at least one, two, or three of them have to be mafia as well.

That would've been an extremely risky, and in all probability unnecessary, gambit for the Mafia to pull. Like Majora said, they were on the verge of winning last round. Assuming Majora is innocent, they probably would've just pushed for his lynching and won the game in a blaze of glory.


So after going over all previous rounds now that there's been on verified Mafia...

White Thunder is almost certainly innocent. His charge against Zanic not only last round, but the round before that (before everyone swayed the votes towards Serpe) all but confirms that. The only thing I can fathom to be odd on his end is how Zanic agreed with him on Day 1 that a mass role reveal would be dumb, which it would've been anyway.

CtR Black's been low-key for all rounds sans Day 1. What sends up red flags for me on this is that he did the same thing in the first game I played, and he turned out to be Mafia.

Kassie's made like.. two or three replies. On Day 1 she showed some suspicion on #85 for claiming Townie right off the bat. Then she replies again when people were being called out for being inactive, just to comment that school's taking up her time. Also, Feral's witch dreams said that she was Mafia... Just sayin'. {duck}

#85 promised to be more active in Day 2. He made one more reply later on to just up and vote for Majora. The end.

Trever made a comment to Jo early on that he would rather not vote at all rather than take a risk when we were so close to losing horribly. And yeeet he both was all for jumping the Serpe bandwagon, and fully agreed with Zanic ten times over that Majora should be the next up for the noose (I conceded my suspicions as well, I won't deny that). What I think is so odd is, besides the contradictions in his supposed plan of action, he ignored the idea of Zanic being suspicious altogether. And if my oft-terrible memory serves right, he's voiced in the past that he would rather avoid joining bandwagons for lynching.

The only strange action from Jo is that he suddenly started dropping in activity during the back-and-forth between Majora and Zanic, but I did the same exact thing, probably for similar reasons. During that time, I think members of the Mafia would have wanted to get accusations away from Zanic and back onto Majora, because, again, they were so close to winning. Which seems like Trever was doing exactly that.

Oh, and Aira/Female Alpha Wolf hasn't even been on MSN for the longest time, so I really doubt her inactivity is Mafia-related.

Hmm. Lots of good ideas here.

I also did a review of the previous rounds and picked out a few more interesting things.

Frustro already pointed one of them out:



Also, in my opinion his townie role claim doesn't indicate innocence or guilt as it would be a safe move for him either way. If he's really a townie (OR a power role), claiming townie would bump him down the Mafia's priority list. If he's Mafia, townie is a good role to hide behind anyway, especially since he's the only one who claimed. I think it's possible he's either Mafia or the FBI Agent.

I hate to say it but I'm a bit more weary of Frustro now, because of two posts in particular from Day 1 and Day 3:





These could be legitimate concerns, as I'm sure everyone was worried about the cop's life being cut short, but this almost seems like it could be coming from a Mafia trying to scare a role reveal out of the cop.

Seeing how Frustro pointed out #85, I think the odds of both of them being Mafia are slim.

Day 4 definitely was interesting. It definitely looks like it was a group effort with Zanic to take out Majora. As much as I wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt, Trever is definitely a likely candidate. And of course #85 voted for Majora and Frustro voiced suspicions of him. I'm really leaning toward #85 and Trever at this point.

I only see evidence of innocence for WT and Majora, and I just plain don't know what to make of FAW, CtR and Kassie.

Perhaps you conceded to the fact Zanic just wasn't going to survive the day? Plus it would put you in a good position to survive the entire game, having put down one of your own Mafia members and completely taking you off the suspect list for the rest of the game. Again, as I said, merely a theory. It's not enough to make me vote for you at all.



I didn't ever fully jump the bandwagon for MM9 (never voted for him officially, check the charts). I also did not ignore suspicions against Zanic (although you yourself actually admitted to doing the same because it just seemed MM9 was trying to divert attention from himself), but the evidence seemed a good deal less convincing than the evidence against MM9. I think everyone can at least concede to the fact that MM9's smaller activity earlier on - coupled with the deaths of Feral and white lancer who kinda sorta singled him out - and then becoming very defensive when Zanic pointed him out did seem pretty suspicious. Though in hindsight you can see where MM9 was coming from.

The only reason I jumped on for Serpe was because it seemed possible that an inactive member was Mafia, as proved in previous games (I gave reasons when I voted for Serpe).

Frankly I don't find anyone suspicious enough to vote right now. I made a mistake voting for Serpe offhandedly last time, then being torn between Zanic and MM9, and I don't feel comfortable jumping any bandwagon today either.

Thanks for the update, Roxas. Yeah, we're more than halfway through and there are no votes. We're going through this round awfully slow. I guess you could almost say we're..... bumbling through this round. Wouldn't you say so, Roxas? We're bumbling through this round? (look)

I'm not really sure what to think of #85, but I'm not entirely willing to risk a lynch on him at this point. It seems like a toss-up in his case. His inactivity actually makes me think he isn't mafia, because in games when he has been mafia he's typically contributed more than games where he was a townie.

So... my plan was to sit back and see if someone tried to lynch me again, i feel like i'm always the perfect scapegoat, but that didnt happen.

I'm not sure if one of the inactive players is the agent, since some of you told the agent not to randomly use their power.

I'm sure some of the active players are mafia. Those that strike me as suspicious are trever and frusto.

and that's my ten cents

How do you think I feel? {:P} I'm always innocent, yet people find me suspicious in every game for whatever reason, even if other people should be considered suspicious for doing similar or worse things.

Last time I second guessed myself I was wrong and pretty much blew the town's chances at a win, so I'm definitely thinking this over a lot.

Right now we can assume that the FBI Agent is one of the more inactive players, unless stated otherwise. I'm pretty convinced at White Thunder and Jo Nathan's innocence. We can split the remaining players into three groups:

1)#85, FAW, Kassie
2)White Thunder, Jo Nathan, Majora
3)Trever, Frustro, CtR Black

If the FBI Agent is inactive, they're in Group 1. Group 2 is assumed to be all innocent, and it seems like we're all vanilla Townies. If this is all true, then there can only be at most 2 mafia in Group 1, meaning that out of Trever, Frustro, and CtR Black, at least one of them has to be mafia, if not more.

I'm still thinking of voting for Trever, but he did bring up a good point in that he never actually voted for me. He mentioned he was suspicious of White Thunder as well at the start of the round, and I'd think if the mafia were going to go all in and lynch someone, they'd try to focus their effort. The fact that he didn't actually vote for me could suggest he's a townie and didn't want to commit himself to a vote, or it could be that he was unsure of what the outcome of the day round was going to be and wanted to play his cards well for the next day round. Reasons for that could include that the mafia does consist of inactive players, and there was no way to force the day round votes in their favor at the time. Either way, I'm still uncertain for now, and I'll probably actually vote sometime tomorrow morning.

We're going have to scope out our next two lynches carefully and hope the FBI agent actually wakes up and arrests the right person to secure a win. Obviously whatever vote we all make today will once again decide the game's outcome. If I make a vote today, it won't be bandwagon-jumping. I am going to look back through the old threads and try to figure out who's playing the most like Mafia and make a decision off that. And if I can't decide, then I guess I will withhold my vote once again. I'd rather stay neutral than to take part in screwing us over.

Fair enough. Can't blame a guy for trying. {duck}

Not sure if anyone else thought anything of it, but I was thinking, and Zanic died from only three votes. Majora had two. With four Mafia members alive at the time you'd think it could have been turned around in their favor. I'm now wondering if two or three of them have been inactive?

Well, it wasn't three since the mafia killed someone in the last night round.

Yeah, but as long as there was at least one vote they could kill, it would just go the full 24 hours... did it?

If the FBI Agent is inactive, then the round would have gone on for the full 24 hours regardless. I'm almost positive the FBI Agent is inactive (most likely FAW, IMO), because they really have no reason to not kill anyone at night. They don't get punished for guessing wrong, and as long as they're still alive at the game's end they'll at least get a survival point.

FAW seemed like she would have been a bit suspicious of hezekiah on Day 1 after he suggested a mass roleclaim, and that could be the reason why she arrested him if she is the FBI Agent. She's also only posted in Day 1, which could also explain why the FBI Agent hasn't killed anyone since then.

I'm voting for Trever.

If I had to make a guess as to who the remaining mafia are, it'd be Trever, Frustro, and Kassie.

I've had a bad feeling about Trever for a while now, and I'm not just going to turn a blind eye to it so easily right now. Keep in mind I only have around 2-5 posts (most of which are generic "sorry for being inactive" messages) to go on for a lot of people, so it's definitely hard to get anything valuable about anyone.

Some things CtR Black said strike me as him being a townie. He initially did provide some forms of input on Day 1, and his posts don't look all that suspicious, almost like a helpful townie. On Day 3, he made a post saying he'd look over the posts and post any suspicions he had when he got the chance but never did. It seems like something similar to what I imagine #85 has been doing, where activity has been so low on the site since the start of Day 2 that people have (however unintentionally) moved on from the current game. That's also kind of what I assumed the reason behind #85's spur of the moment vote toward me last round was for. CtR Black and #85 have both been active on other parts of the site, which just reinforces this idea.

FAW seemed to have dropped off the planet, and I've already listed why I think she's the FBI Agent. Kassie mentioned she hasn't even had the chance to get online more than two times since the start of the game in general. Trever and Frustro have been moderately active the entire game, similar to Zanic.

The mafia will be the least likely to go inactive for personal reasons, because of the whole "team aspect" as well as being the "informed minority." It really beats out being a Townie that knows nothing and does nothing. Trever and Frustro have been moderately active the whole game, and, at least from my perspective during the last round, seemed to be working as a group with Zanic, despite never actually voting. This would leave FAW and Kassie as the two people that have been inactive for reasons that are out of their presumably hands, and if I had to bet on which one of them was mafia, I'd say it was Kassie, considering my reasons for thinking FAW is the FBI Agent. I'm definitely willing to base my vote on this.

We definitely need to vote this round, and I think the safest options are for Trever, Frustro, CtR Black, and #85. One of those four is guaranteed mafia, and I still think it's more than just one that's mafia. So, although this might end the game in a horribly anticlimactic manner, we do need to vote and this seems to be the safest bet in my opinion.

Nah, that was me scaring me enough to voice my paranoia. And in the end, it seems like chiefsonny agreed (rest his soul).

And yes, yes, me getting on Majora's case when he turns out to be for all intents and purposes innocent did, like I said, put a "LYNCH ME!!" label on my forehead. But, if I was Mafia, I think I would've quickly changed my viewpoint when it was clear that the Zanic votes were piling up to avoid this exact situation. But who knows, maybe I anticipated you all anticipating that! {duck} But remember, as some guy once said, don't attribute to malice what can easily be explained by stupidity (on my part).

And I'd say my activity for this game has admittedly been at an all-time low rather than moderate. Ironically, that's because of my aggravation that others are being so inactive.

In any case, because I'm so hellbent on living to win a game, I'd suggest that the FBI Agent (if they're actually active) hold off on arresting me. If Trever turns out to be innocent, then by all means, prepare the cuffs.

I agree. Nothing else.

If the FBI Agent is reading: If Trev turns out innocent YOU MUST ARREST SOMEONE TONIGHT OR THE GAME ENDS. And then you will have no more chances to arrest. So there.

So basically Frustro's reasons for suspecting me are the same reasons MM9 was suspecting him? Okay... And now he's jumping MM9's bandwagon to lynch me.

That, coupled with evidence/suspicions posted by Jo Nathan, White Thunder, and generally looking at his posting history, I am betting he's the Mafia here. Nothing left to say to defend myself, I said everything I could already.

I know it's probably going to be a wasted vote and the town will sadly meet its end tonight most likely, but here's my vote.

Frustro does seem like a crafty one, I'll give you that, but it just looked too much like you and Zanic had a common agenda.

... I'm going to take that as a compliment regardless of the context.

Sigh. Okay fine. Time for me to go.

*hammers the nails in his coffin and has a suit readied for himself*

Farewell cruel world...

That feeling when I wake up and suddenly understand the implications of what I did the night before.

Just something I want to reiterate before the Night round starts, is that I'd take what Trever and Frustro said this round with a grain of salt. I'm still suspicious of them, and they know that, so they'll do what they can to disassociate themselves from one another. It's not a 100% guarantee they're both mafia, but just because they say stuff like "I think Frustro is mafia" before dying doesn't mean it's the case. Stating the obvious here but just wanting to throw that out their in case I die!

I think it's very likely that Frustro is mafia, unless by some stroke of luck Trever turns out to be the only active mafia member left. At which case, we have a group of three suspects (#85, Kassie, FAW).

Doesn't mean the opposite is true* is what I meant to say.

Hey, no worries. If he turns out to be innocent, we can all find solace in the fact that you cast the first stone and not us. {duck}

Things definitely got interesting though. Regardless of what happens next, I'm glad Roxas didn't reset.

I'm getting the notion that no matter what justifications I have over my own goof-ups, Majora's going to be on my case for the rest of the game. I can't say enough how bad of a mistake it was thinking you were guilty, Majora, but I have an idea. If nothing else, save me for when there's one last Mafia. I think by then we can afford a mislynching (sorry for making it sound so pretentious, but... welp. :I ). If I can't prove that I'm innocent and derped rather than a grand evil mastermind you're painting me to be by then, then vote me off.

I'm probably going to be dead by next round anyway, which is why I wanted to get my thoughts out now. You and CtR are the only active players left that can be mafia, so it'll be a toss-up between him and you. It would be in the town's best interest to lynch the active mafia members first, because when it's down to inactive ones it'll really come down to luck due to the lack of evidence.

You're just in his way, Frustro :| If you pointed a finger at MM9 and didn't vote for Zanic, you MUST be Mafia. That's why I'm about to die, basically.

Are you guys fo' real?

I've pointed out my reasons why I think you guys are suspicious, but every time you go back to the fact that you all pointed out that I was suspicious in Day 4, as if that act blinded me from anything else. This isn't true. I've already said at the start of Day 4 that I was suspicious of Zanic, Trever, and Jo Nathan prior to the round even starting.

White Thunder also said he was suspicious of me, but am I going after him? No. I've never even said I was suspicious of him. #85 even voted for me last round, but am I suspicious of him? No, I've even defended him. You can twist this any way you want to make it seem like I'm fixated on people that didn't vote for Zanic (or, if you're mafia, that I was simply "lucky" for guessing properly and not changing my mind, as I've seen brought up on other sites), but in the end I've thought things over a lot. You say that you wanted my reasons, I've given them in previous posts, and have also taken into account reactions that came after those post. But you guys seem to be ignoring that (shifty).

Just the same as how my defenses were ignored. It's just how the game works.

Ok first: Trever, stop trying to make it seem like we're agreeing on things and furthering my alleged guilt or what have you. >:0

Anyway, the only reason for suspicion you've provided against me is that I appeared to ignore Zanic while going after you. But I've already explained why that was the case: I realized that I didn't have a clear idea of who was guilty, so I did the best thing I could do and shut myself up to prevent screwing things up. Basically, I'm not wanting a repeat of my performance in the first game where I flaunted my dedication to being active and in doing so doing more harm than good. And again, activity-wise, I haven't been on the active side, yet again having explained why that's the case. And if there is a next round, inb4 everyone starts going "Oh Majora was killed and he suspected Frustro so that means Frustro must be Mafia!" because I can guarantee the Mafia will just love that outcome.

If Trever's innocent I think we can pretty much bank on Frustro being Mafia. So again, if the FBI is reading this, arrest Frustro tonight.

^ That is, only do that if Trev turns out innocent.

I never ignored your defenses. I even quoted them and mentioned that you brought up a good point at one time. And I never just stopped paying any mind to them; I waited more than 24 hours into the round before feeling confident enough to vote for you, because at one point I was starting to doubt that you and Frustro were mafia at all, and regretted saying that I'd "definitely vote" for one of the two of you.

But after looking over the past rounds, I feel that a vote for you is a lot safer than a vote for Kassie, or a vote for FAW who haven't shown any signs of being online. I won't vote for White Thunder or Jo Nathan, and I feel that CtR Black and #85's actions have been the most genuinely town-like.

It's nowhere near as black and white as you make it out to be, where you're simply getting ignored and voted for because you pointed a finger at me.