Mafia

Well, this has been an absolutely terrible round. If we kill a townie today it's over, unless the Mafia hits the FBI Agent tonight. I suggest the cop reveal and give us any results he has, even if it's only innocent verdicts.

I'm still highly suspicious of Zanic, and the death of Feral only furthers my belief that Majora might be Mafia.

Well, I was hoping I did not have to do this so soon, but this game is just about over.

Night 0 checked out:
MM9
MM9 is innocent.

Night 1 checked out:
hezekiah
hezekiah was innocent but he's dead now.

Night 2 checked out:
white lancer
white lancer was innocent, but he's dead now also.

Last Night checked out:
Jo Nathan
Jo Nathan is innocent.

Keep in mind that the Godfather shows up innocent to me.

Also make sure no one person gets anymore then 3 votes or it's game over tonight.

See you in the Dead Thread.(cry)

Also announcement at top says "Night" 4 should be Day 4.

Yeah, so JN or MM9 could be Godfather but since that role is only one out of 4 Mafia we should avoid those two for now. I am prepared to vote for Zanic with some backup.

Oh, forgot. I will be at State College all day tomorrow 7AM-9PM at the Penn State v Ohio State game. May vote later tonight.

I'm fairly convinced that WT is just a townie and has confused me with mafia, but I'm also confident that MM9 is mafia. The fact that he's posted as little times as he normally does doesn't at up at all. Plus Feral was killed last night. Basically the one person who suspected him.

At this point, MM9 does look the most suspicious. The past two days, both white lancer and Feral died, and both had specifically pointed out MM9. It could be the Mafia playing their cards well to make him a red herring, but both Redack and I pointed out Yeano a few games ago in a similar manner, and we both ended up dead in consecutive rounds.

Well, this has been an absolutely terrible round. If we kill a townie today it's over, unless the Mafia hits the FBI Agent tonight. I suggest the cop reveal and give us any results he has, even if it's only innocent verdicts.

This was also suspicious. In one sentence, White Thunder simultaneously points out that if we hit a townie today and the Mafia hits anyone but the FBI agent tonight, the town loses, and also asks that the cop reveal himself and his information - whether or not he got any guilty verdicts. Which then prompted chiefsonny to reveal. That guaranteed that the Mafia would not hit the FBI agent, because they know to hit chiefsonny now. {:?} So if we don't lynch the right person today, we're screwed.

What? He never said he was suspicious of me (in a serious manner, anyway?). Additionally, chiefsonny already stated that I'm innocent (or the godfather).

I'm more likely to think that Zanic is mafia at this point. You stated that you're "confident that [I'm] mafia," yet chiefsonny (cop claim) says that I'm innocent. The only relevant evidence you're basing it on is my inactivity, which is partly due to gtx0.com being down, and school. Regardless, I find it impossible to believe you'd be "confident" of my guilt based on this.

We're at a point in the game where if we mislynch, we'll lose unless I'm the FBI Agent or the mafia kills the FBI Agent. I'm sure the mafia are aware of this, as all they need to do is get the town to lynch one more innocent player to win.

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I'm more than likely going to vote for Zanic, but other people I'm suspicious of are Jo Nathan and Trever. I'll think things over and read the posts again before I vote though.

Obviously you have yet to read day three where Feral clearly stated that he was suspicious of you at least twice. I have also been busy with school. I'm not saying you're mafia so much based on activity, but more on the deaths of Lancer and Feral. You have remained somewhat more quiet this game. More than usual.

The fact that MM9 just got super defensive and turned back on the people pointing him out looks even more suspicious, especially how flawed his reasoning is. He is saying Zanic went against chiefsonny's innocent verdict (even though the Godfather also appears innocent) and is going off only his lack of activity, while Zanic clearly stated it was also Feral's death after Feral singled him out:

Reply #827390

"OK, I went back through the last two days. My suspicions of Thunder are reversed. He is pretty much leading the town right now.

My suspicions of Majora, on the other hand, have skyrocketted. His comment about my dream admittedly made me look closer at him. Fact is, I do NOT like what I see. His playing has been very inconsistant and not as strong as usual. He was trying very hard to get the Cop to reveal last round, guilty verdict or not. Also, is it any coincidence that Lancer, his biggest detractor, would up with a crowbar in his head?

On a seperate topic, I believe I have narrowed down the FBI agent to three people. Don't want to say who yet, though, for fear of hepling the Mafia."

Zanic's confidence is somewhat reasonable following that. MM9's innocent verdict does not write him off as a townie. MM9's pointing out of Zanic, Jo Nathan and myself are completely without viable evidence other than we fact we pointed him out (for reasons that are clearly suspicious). If you are going to point a finger at us, at least give some evidence other than the fact we pointed you out.

However, things are looking weird. MM9 was originally the one pushing for a cop reveal and now WT was the one who called for it (and achieved it) today - and WT was no longer on Feral's list. WT also has suspicions of Zanic and MM9.

So what is exactly is going here?

For the moment the only one that I don't find suspicious among those three is Zanic, because he's been singled out and yet, no one has actually brought forth good evidence against him. So if you want to change my mind on that, bring forth something on him at least.

All I can say now to you all is this: If you state suspicions, put some evidence into it. I for one will not be jumping any bandwagons based on a gut feeling. The town is at a critical point and we cannot afford to be pointing fingers at the wrong man.

For now, even though my suspicions are clear, I'm not comfortable voting for any of them. I want to see some explains to clear things up and possibly write them off as innocent or still looking guilty.

Damn, the sparks sure are flying today. Looks like this game turned out to be a live one after all.

It seems to me that Majora and I are being suspected as the Godfather because we were investigated and shown as "innocent"? That doesn't make sense to me because there are other innocents in the pool of uninvestigated people... And I'm reluctant to jump on the Majora bandwagon right now anyway.



I don't recall pointing anyone out throughout the whole game with the exception of Serpe... (shifty)

Sorry, I was assuming you did because he was suspicious of you, and the only reason he seemed to be suspicious of Zanic and me was because we pointed him - so I thought his reasoning against you was the same. My bad...

Well shit

That guaranteed that the Mafia would not hit the FBI agent, because they know to hit chiefsonny now.

Yeah, I realized that right after I posted. But I also think it's still in our best interest, and obviously chief who's a good player, agreed. We did get at least some useful information.

I also agree that MM's response was way too defensive. I'm just not sure that voting for him with an innocent verdict is the best idea. I know he could be the Godfather but the odds of that are slim. If we hadn't gotten that result I probably would vote for him, but we need to be very certain before lynching someone checked innocent.

As for "evidence" of my suspicions of Zanic I posted them last round and I still think he's the most likely to be Mafia. I'd like to hear from some more of the inactives before we make a decision.

I know it might have come across as being overly defensive, but I was a bit in a hurry and was suspicious of Trever, Jo Nathan, and Zanic as of the last day round--didn't have time to go into why. I haven't been too active this game due to school-related stuff, and the time I was able to get on nothing happened due to the domain issue. It's very difficult to get back on track in a game after missing so much without seeming to come across overly agressive or defensive; I've barely said anything, missed questions and accusations, and need to get it all out in a short amount of time near the end of the game.

Basically I wasn't trying to so much defend myself as I was showing how suspicious I was of Zanic et al!

@ Trever: I must have missed Feral's replies. I honestly haven't been on gtx0 much at all since domain issues. I do not recall ever stating that I wanted the cop to reveal prior to Day 3, and even on Day 3 I said it would be up to the cop, but Day 4 should be the latest they claim.

Either way, I'll always find anyone that starts the round saying "the mafia killed [Person A], [Person A] was suspicious of [Person B], therefore, [Person B] is most likely mafia." That line of thinking rarely ever works out, and pointing it out first thing is just an all-around shady thing to do.

Uhm, I was probably going to say something else as well but I forgot what it was, so I'll just post this and maybe post what else I was going to say some other time?

And for what it's worth, there has been barely anything to go on, so most of my suspicions against Jo Nathan, Trever, and Zanic were simply "gut instinct" suspicions.

Trever hasn't talked much except for pointing out how the FBI Agent is helping the mafia. Was also suspicious of the way he jumped on the Serpe bandwagon at the end. Honestly though I'm probably not as suspicious of you as Zanic. I always seem to be naturally suspicious of you for some reason.. !!

Zanic, I've found most suspicious. White Thunder already brought up points that I agree with, and his response to accusations:



Seems like something someone that was mafia would say. The "If you want to vote for me with little evidence, be my guest" line. It's another thing I'm always suspicious of when I see it in a mafia game.

Jo Nathan I'm not all that suspicious of considering the innocent verdict he got from chief, but I was admittedly a little suspicious of him for voting Serpe last round. I remember in at least one or more of the previous games, someone that was mafia suggested going after an inactive player in the day round because they knew chiefsonny would be more than willing to go after them as well. Once a bandwagon starts going with vote locking on, it's pretty hard to turn it around.

Something I've also been trying to consider is that in the end of a game, if the mafia has an upper hand as they do now, they tend to not worry as much about working together in the main thread. All the mafia needs right now is for two townies to slip up and vote for someone who's innocent and the game is theirs. It kind of showed between Zanic and Trever this round, which added on to my suspicions from last round.

Yeah, voting off Serpe was a dumb move on my part. I realized after the fact that lynching him was probably a waste of a round, but I guess I wasn't expecting it to turn into the bandwagon that it did.

Ugh, damn it, I've been trying for the past 50 minutes to get this response posted but real life is getting in the way. I have more to say so I'll try to come back tonight or tomorrow morning.

... Bueller?

Made a list of the amount of posts made by people in each of the first three threads:

Day 1
-----
white lancer - 8 (Dead/Town)
chiefsonny - 8 (Town)
White Thunder - 8
Feral - 7 (Dead/Town)
Jo Nathan - 5 (Innocent?)
Zanic - 4
CtR Black - 4
Trever - 4
hezekiah - 3 (Dead/Town)
Count Dooku - 3 (Dead/Town)
Helius - 2 (Dead/Town)
FAW - 2
Frustro - 2
#85 - 1
Majora - 1 (Innocent?)
Kassie - 1
Serpe - 0 (Dead/Town)

Day 2
-----
white lancer - 6 (Dead/Town)
chiefsonny - 2 (Town)
Feral - 2 (Dead/Town)
Majora - 2 (Innocent?)
White Thunder - 2
#85 - 1
Jo Nathan - 1 (Innocent?)
Helius - 1 (Dead/Town)
Trever - 1
Frustro - 1
Zanic - 1
FAW - 0
CtR Black - 0
Kassie - 0
Serpe - 0 (Dead/Town)
Count Dooku - n/a (Dead/Town)
hezekiah - n/a (Dead/Town)

Day 3
-----
Feral - 9 (Dead/Town)
Jo Nathan - 8 (Innocent?)
White Thunder - 7
chiefsonny - 7 (Town)
Zanic - 5
Trever - 4
Majora - 1 (Innocent?)
Frustro - 1
CtR Black - 1
Kassie - 1
FAW - 0
#85 - 0
Serpe - 0 (Dead/Town)
white lancer - n/a (Dead/Town)
Helius - n/a (Dead/Town)
Count Dooku - n/a (Dead/Town)
hezekiah - n/a (Dead/Town)

Total
-----
white lancer - 14 [avg: 7] (Dead/Town)
Feral - 18 [avg: 6] (Dead/Town)
chiefsonny - 17 [avg: 6] (Town)
White Thunder - 17 [avg: 6]
Jo Nathan - 14 [avg: 5] (Innocent?)
Zanic - 10 [avg: 4]
Count Dooku - 3 [avg: 3] (Dead/Town)
hezekiah - 3 [avg: 3] (Dead/Town)
Trever - 9 [avg: 3]
CtR Black - 5 [avg: 2]
Helius - 3 [avg: 2] (Dead/Town)
Frustro - 4 [avg: 2]
Majora - 4 [avg: 1] (Innocent?)
FAW - 2 [avg: 1]
#85 - 2 [avg: 1]
Kassie - 2 [avg: 1]
Serpe - 0 [avg: 0] (Dead/Town)

Typically the mafia will hang out more toward the middle of the spectrum in post count. The people who post a whole lot (white lancer, Feral, chief) typically end up innocent, as do the people that rarely post (Serpe, Helius).

Each night has ended at the 24 hour mark, and there unfortunately hasn't been much activity this game compared to past ones, so it's hard to tell if its the same night actions that are inactive, whether or not they're mafia, whether or not they're pretending to be inactive, etc.

My bet thought would be on the middle of that list (Zanic, Trever, CtR, and Frustro) being mafia.

I'm pretty confident that White Thunder is innocent. He's in general been helpful and has provided input. Jo Nathan I'm leaning toward being innocent as well. #85 seems a bit suspicious, but he's also someone I've always found suspicious, and I think it's more likely he's a townie this game. FAW and Kassie have missed a lot (both only posting twice), so I can't say I find them suspicious either. I'm a townie but I know you guys won't take my word for that!

I'm leaning very heavily toward voting Zanic right now.

I must admit that Majora's looking highly suspicious to me right now. The excuses for absence aren't that believable. The alestan link for gtx0 was working just fine for me when the site was acting wonky, and he must've had that available. From the past two games I've been in, he's either been a power player or an active host, regardless of the school season, sooo...

Yet again, I'm afraid to throw in a vote given the thin wire we're on, but there's virtually nothing else to go on.

I was here while the domain issues was happening, my problem with it was the lack of posts. There were only 20 posts (6 of which were from white lancer, 6 of which were from people who only posted once). There was no way to gauge suspicions with the lack of activity, which has been a major problem this entire game.

At this point I'm 100% certain that either Zanic or MM9 is Mafia, and the more I think about it the more I think it's Zanic. I think if he turns out Mafia it's almost certain that MM9 is not- can't be 100% sure but it certainly seems that way.

Hard for me to say for the others, but Frustro at least is one person I don't find suspicious at all. He's been innocent for the previous two games and nothing about him strikes me as out of place this time around. Trever just seems suspicious every game so I don't know what to make of him. Personally I want to hear from some of the others who have been laying low, especially Kassie since she has been back since the URL was restored.

But I'll hold those thoughts for the next round. I agree it definitely seems like either Majora or Zanic are Mafia. But we still have time before the round ends so I intend to use it to think carefully about this before I vote.

Alright, looking back over the evidence and the other days, plus WT's excuse for why he mentioned the cop reveal make him look fairly innocent. So I will write him off as town-sided, 95% sure of that.

White Thunder's evidence against Zanic Day 3 was slightly worrisome, having a look back at it. I haven't really paid a lot of attention to Zanic throughout the game history, because he is usually pretty quiet and doesn't say a whole lot. But his reaction white lancer's death did seem a bit flat and like... just oddly done.

However, none of Zanic's accusers have ended up dead. Two of MM9's have, and in addition to that, his excuses and defenses make him look guilty.

But obviously, as White Thunder said, it just wouldn't add up if both were guilty since they are pointing to each other.

I am actually curious as to why I always seem suspicious o_O I hear that every game, and I basically get lynched every game, and yet I always turn out to be innocent. And the reasons for me being suspicious never make much sense to me.

If there are at least 4 names voted for, then it might be interesting to see who pushes one name ahead of the others.

If I could vote twice I would also vote for CtR Black

Who exactly counts as Zanic's accusers and who counts as someone that accused me?

Feral was the only person that outright called me suspicious. To quote white lancer:



This doesn't sound like him calling me out at all. The only other person that said they were suspicious of me is White Thunder, who is still alive. Frustro also mentioned my name, but it sounds far from him calling me suspicious:



The only person that voiced suspicion in the threads about Zanic was White Thunder last round. However, I find it very hard to believe this is a legitimate case of the mafia killing someone that's gunning for them.

-----

Look at things from a different perspective: Temporarily consider that Zanic is mafia, White Thunder is a townie that finds both Zanic and myself suspicious, and I am a townie. The events at the beginning of this round make just as much sense, if not more sense, than if you look at it as if I am mafia and Zanic is innocent:








Then, at the begining of this round (Day 4):



Note how Zanic goes out of his way to mention that White Thunder is most likely just a confused townie, which emphasizes the fact that he's well aware of WT's suspicions of him and wants to try to clear his name, which he didn't even bother doing in Day 3. Seeing as White Thunder voiced strong suspicions against Zanic, and Feral voiced strong suspicions against me, killing Feral and then pointing the finger of suspicion toward me seems like a very viable way of turning the tables and getting White Thunder to lynch me.

He also, in his first Day 4 reply, stated that he was suspicious of me because of my absence. Later, he says:



I can't be the only person that sees this as a contradictory statement in more than one way.

I haven't been all that active the past few days obviously, so I'm sure the mafia probably thought I'd be an easy lynch candidate if they played the "inactivity" card. But clearly, I am active this round, which the mafia might not have expected. If they didn't expect it--and if we still hypothetically assume Zanic is mafia--then it makes sense for him to have made a contradictory statement. They could have entirely expected me to be just as inactive this round, and not put up a fight. But I did, and now Zanic's reasons for wanting me lynched seem to contradict his past statements.

-----

Also, I'm putting in my vote for Zanic now.

As much as I hate bandwagoning.... this is the strongest case we've had against anyone so far this game so what the hell.

Well, since we're voting. I've already explained why I find MM9 suspicious.

At first you said it was because of my inactivity. I explained it, giving a similar explanation as you yourself have given previously in this game (school). You later retract that reason and said that your reason of suspicion for me was because white lancer and Feral died (who both supposedly were gunning for me). White lancer was NOT gunning for me, and honestly if I had seen Feral's accusations, I could have easily shot down his arguments:



Attributed to school and the domain issue, as I've already brought up. This game has had very little activity, and it has been nigh impossible to get a good read on people.



Which is false. This is the only comment I made about the cop on Day 2:





Again, I'd hardly call what white lancer said as him gunning for me. He even said he WASN'T going to vote for me.

You all should know by now I love getting in arguments in mafia, so why would I pass up the opportunity to argue with Feral with all those aces up my sleeve? If I legitimately was mafia and wanted to get rid of a threat, I'd go after White Thunder, who voiced suspicions of me as well. But White Thunder is alive, Feral is dead, and Zanic was the one that started the day round straight away playing the "Feral is dead so Majora is mafia" card, even after chiefsonny said he got an innocent result (thus considerably lowering the odds of me being mafia).

This isn't really directed toward Zanic as much as it is the people who haven't voted. Consider this: If both Zanic and I are town, then the mafia have already won, based on the votes that have been cast. Zanic says that he wants evidence, but the "evidence" he has provided doesn't hold much water at all. The worst-but-still-good way I see this round ending is if it ends in a tie, as it should be very apparent who the mafia are to the FBI Agent in a situation like that.

And for clarification regarding my "Day 2 Cop quote" I made:



It's a bit hard to tell in the segment I cut out, but this was referring to me posting my suspicions later in the day round, NOT the cop revealing later in the day round.

Okay. Really? You're getting seriously defensive and it just makes me more on-edge. I'm not sure how you play in a normal game, but all this that you're doing just seems out of character for you.

Defending myself in a Mislynch or Lose situation in which I already have 2 votes is hardly suspicious. What do you find suspicious about it?

Mislynch and Lose*

Well, I didn't even accuse you of anything else and you just go off. I'm sorry if I offended you at all, but I'm just trying to play the game. You're getting too into into it dude.

I'm not sure why you would think you offended me when I simply provided a counterpoint to your reasons for voting for me. If you didn't expect to have your arguments scrutinized, I'm not sure what you expected when you voted for me.

Well, things have definitely changed since I last peeked in. MM9's case certainly has grown, and that piled with what White Thunder pointed out, makes Zanic seem pretty guilty. There is just something artificially cool about Zanic when he is Mafia and I'm sorry to say, he is currently demonstrating that kind of attitude this game.

Yet at the same time, MM9 is really really defensive and some parts of his case seem a bit slanted. Like some evidence he brings up goes against his case actually serves as a counter to his case, despite he is saying it supports it. Yeano actually did the same thing two games ago to get me lynched.

I dunno, I am really torn on this still and I am not sure what to do.

Such as? I'm pretty sure I haven't contradicted myself at all this entire game..

I know I probably appear as overly defensive considering I'm arguing a case for myself, but this is how I am every game. If someone says "I have evidence that points to you being mafia," I'm going to point out the flaws of the argument and provide alternatives, rather than just sit back. You yourself did the same thing in the game when Yeano was gunning for you.

That's the thing though. There is no real evidence this game and people haven't really taken into effect that we're down 6 people already.

Well, regardless, the round already reached the 72 hour mark, ending with 3 votes on Zanic, 2 on me, 1 on FAW.