Mafia

I can already tell that this game is weighted towards the Mafia. Maybe it's a little bit of justice since the Mafia deserved to win last game, but I hope the Town can put up a fight about it.

They'll need to hit a Mafia member early, though, within the next couple of rounds. The Ballot Forger especially is dangerous (more dangerous than I initially realized).

Welcome to deadness, Roxas. Sorry you didn't get to play much. :(

Heh, no suspicion for Jo anymore, Roxas?

I will say that some of the Town-sided players are acting especially suspicious this game. Much more so than some of the Mafia players.

Ah, haha. I thought it seemed rather random. And then Yoshi jumped on you for it. :P

I wonder how well I'd be doing at reading people if I were in the game right now. There are a couple of things that Mafia members have done (or not done) that seem like dead giveaways to me, but no one has picked up on them so far. Then again, as I said a couple of Townies are looking pretty iffy right about now as well. The Town might have to rely on their special roles if they want to stand a chance in this game; I think they're pretty much toast if the Mafia manage to kill the Lovers or the Dreamer.

MM9 hasnt really been helping the Townies at all this round really.

This is a good observation on Castrael's part and I'm fairly confident I would be worried about that as well if I were playing. It's just uncharacteristic of him to be so quiet and I always worry about MM9 when I'm playing, so I think I'd pick up on it.

Welcome to the graveyard, Thunder! Sorry to see you go...but, well, I do have to say you were acting a tad bit suspicious, heh.

The Town's killing themselves this game so far. They'd better shape up if they don't want to get shut out.

Nope, Jo is not Mafia! Also, things seem to be going from bad to worse for the Town--unless the Mafia change their minds, it looks like the Dreamer is the next to go (though they actually came *this* close to taking out the Traitor).

Welcome, FAW! I was disappointed when the Mafia (randomly) decided to target you last night; I had hopes that your dreaming abilities might help to turn the tide a little bit. The last three that you would have dreamed were Castrael, Xhin, and Black Yoshi.

hezekiah
Castrael
White Thunder

Jo Nathan
Black Yoshi
chiefsonny

The other two that FAW dreamed. There are some interesting implications as to what probably would have happened had you survived and relayed this info to the Town next round. I think you would have caught one, maybe two of the Mafia based on this alone.

Something's going to have to change soon in the day round, because otherwise this game is over. And if the game ends today I don't know how I'm going to award player points, because the Town has played poorly but the Mafia haven't really done anything special.

That's been the problem for the Town this game--people haven't really been engaged, and so it's been easy for the Mafia to coast by without contributing anything to discussion. They're also missing a lot of hints that should be pretty big ones.

Haha, I tend to second-guess myself too much in this game to feel that way too often. Even when I'm about as confident as I can be without outright proof (like with MM9 for...most of the last game or Serpe at the end of the Halloween game), I get nervous that somehow I'm missing something. Makes for some nerve-wracking moments when I finally manage to convince myself to go with my instincts.

You played the Dreamer role right, FAW. If you had survived to today (and really, the Mafia decision to kill you came completely out of the blue), you could have turned the game around.

At this point, the only chance the Town has is a roleclaim, which is risky because of the presence of the Lovers. Still, that's better than having a special role go down, especially since the Lovers have a shot at saving themselves with the Bulletproof vest (and I'd only reveal one Lover--there's no need to reveal both). There's also still a chance the Mafia could hit the Traitor, which would suddenly give the Town a little bit of breathing room.

Of course, the Mafia can only hit the Traitor if the Town somehow manages to survive this round, which isn't looking likely at the moment. Unless they roleclaim, I don't see the votes shifting, but they actually stand a better chance in the night round if the votes tie (because the Mafia could hit a Traitor or a Lover with the Bulletproof vest).

There's one way I see that can change the game at this point, and that's if one specific person roleclaims. And the fact that they haven't is driving me crazy. <OO

The Town debated its options back and forth, but while there were many active in discussion, it took only a few scattered votes to seal the deal. Castrael fought her hardest, but she was unable to rouse the apathetic Town members to save her, and so she was wrestled to the Town Square where her execution awaited. There, with her head on the chopping block and the Town screaming (or, rather, a few scattered members of the Town vaguely muttering) for her blood, she locked eyes with the man who stood on the deck across from her, and she suddenly knew.

"Wait! It's him! I know it's him!" she screamed at the crowd, but most of them didn't bother even to acknowledge her words. As the guillotine blade came down and her nemesis smiled, Castrael had just one final thought:

I should...have told them...I was the Oracle..

Standing above the fray and observing it all, Black Yoshi, the Godfather, knew the end was nigh. His Mafiosos had managed to turn the Town against each other with mere rumors of their presence--accusation after accusation flew, but almost none of them even struck a single Mafia member. On top of it all, he knew he had an ally in their midst, and with that ally came the numbers he needed to take over this Town. It was all too easy--the Town had done all the work for them.

Heads turned as Black Yoshi fired a flare gun into the air, but while half of the Town scratched their heads in confusion, the other half sprang into action. Jo Nathan, who had chosen to abstain from the vote in order to ensure someone was lynched, suddenly found himself with a knife to his throat. "Thanks for whittling them down for us," his assailant, hezekiah the Traitor, murmured smugly, just before he slit the poor Townie's throat. Screaming filled the air as the Town, finally and too late, showed signs of life, fleeing to the hills...and leaving the rest of them to hunt them down.

CtR Black, Townie, rushed down a nearby alleyway, but he quickly discovered he wasn't alone. There, the dreaded Town Hooker awaited, and it took just one sharpened stiletto to the throat to bring him down. MajorasMask9, proud of his handiwork and happy to get the win he was denied last game, stepped lightly over the corpse and followed the sounds of gunshots coming from near the fountain. It was lucky, he surmised, that so few noticed his relative absence from this game--otherwise they might have actually stood a chance at taking the Mafia down.

Black Yoshi stalked his prey with a smile on his face as the last two remaining members of the Town fled from his imposing presence (or, more likely, the very very large submachine gun he held in his hands). They seemed to be escaping, but Yoshi knew something they didn't, and his smirk turned into a cackle as Count Dooku, the Mafioso, came out of the Town Hall building wielding dual pistols. The two Town members collapsed in despair at the base of the fountain, holding hands one last time; the two Mafia members nodded to one another and opened fire; and Xhin and chiefsonny, the Lovers and the last members of the Town, fell together in a hail of bullets.


1. Black Yoshi -- Godfather
2. MajorasMask9 -- Ballot Forger Hooker
3. chiefsonny -- Lover
4. Jo Nathan -- Townie
5. White Thunder -- Townie
6. 'Roxas' -- Townie
7. Female Alpha Wolf -- Dreamer
8. hezekiah -- Traitor
9. Castrael -- Oracle
10. Count Dooku -- Mafioso
11. CtR Black -- Townie
12. Xhin -- Lover

---

Well, that didn't exactly go how I'd hoped. It's true that the game slanted towards the Mafia, but it was far from unwinnable for the Town (at least not after I removed the Ballot Forger). Here's what happened that killed the Town's chances:

1. The Mafia's nightkill of FAW--This one really hurt for you guys, because the Dreamer is a powerful role and would have had three nights to gather information if FAW had survived the night. If the Mafia had gone with what appeared to be their second choice, they would have accidentally offed one of their own (leaving you guys with a 6-3 ratio), and if FAW had come forward that day, Castrael's innocence would have been confirmed and Black Yoshi would have been highly suspect. If you had voted out Yoshi that day based on the Dreamer report, Xhin, chief, and Jo would have been confirmed innocent and the Mafia would have had a hard time winning the game. A lot wound up hinging on that decision and I'm still not even sure why FAW was chosen as a target--did you Mafia members have even an inkling that FAW was a power role?

2. The general lack of investment--I think this was a big one that really helped the Mafia. My philosophy about setting up Mafia games is that when in doubt, you should lean the games a little toward the Mafia. The reason for this, and the reason the Town wins more often, is because it's harder to lie convincingly and consistently than it is to figure out when other people are lying or playing inconsistently. That's why you see so many Mafia players going for an under-the-radar game--it's a lot less work and it's harder to slip up. When people aren't active or engaged in the game, though, this part doesn't apply because it's a lot easier for the Mafia to slip through the game without saying or doing much of consequence--they don't have to post as often, and people aren't looking as closely for signs. I remember noting more than one post of Yoshi's that seemed super sketch and I was surprised no one jumped on him for them; even worse than that, though, is the fact that NO ONE other than Castrael picked up on MM9's inactivity. That just blew my mind.

3. The Town was too single-minded--This kinda ties into the Town's not being engaged, but this game was reminiscent of the one waaaaay back when LLight was the Cop and half the Town was 100% confident he was guilty. The main problem with that isn't that it can lead to a single mislynch, it's that by focusing on one target you tend to pay less attention to others and so you miss the more subtle cues in others' posts. This also leads to you interpreting other's actions in light of your false suspicion, giving you more wrong suspicions (I've fallen into this trap before, so I understand it).

4. Castrael didn't roleclaim on Day 3--I really don't understand why she didn't come out as the Oracle when the Town was turning against her. There is literally no reason not to roleclaim if you're about to be voted off anyway, and it might have saved the Town or at least forced one of the Mafia members to put themselves in the spotlight by counter-claiming. My guess is that they would have instead tried to get chief lynched, but chief would have been able to claim as well (the Bulletproof Vest makes this feasible) and maybe Yoshi (or Jo) would have gotten the axe.

So, yeah. In hindsight, I probably should have anticipated quieter early rounds based on Thunder's game and made the ratio a little less demanding (although 9-3 is a pretty steep hill for a Mafia to climb anyway). I think the setup (sans Ballot Forger) could have worked had everyone been engaged in the game, but as it was it took people too long to get into it for the Town to do much. Player scores will be up soon, and I'll be frank: I wouldn't expect there to be many 'good player' points. Neither side was particularly committed to the game and so brilliant play was a rarity (at least it'll balance out my last game of hosting, where I was far too generous with the points :P).

You know what would be awesome right about now? If the Mafia hit the Lover with the bulletproof vest. The game's not completely over--there's still a 20% chance that the Town could survive the night (and then they'd know who to kill).

Still think it was a good move by hezy, though. Better to do that than to risk Castrael actually being a Mafia member, from his perspective.

At least now I have one person who will be getting a good player point for sure (most of the rest are pretty debatable).

BTW, shouldn't the title of the thread say Night Three instead of Night Four?

...it does. Can't you read?



{:P}

Also, if the Mafia have been paying attention, they'll just target JN. He claimed Townie earlier in the game and is probably the safest choice because of it.

By the way, I kinda want to post my original ending post here, but I won't do it if you guys don't want to be spoiled. I wrote it up last night when it looked like things weren't going to change at all (but now they have a little bit, so I'll have to make some adjustments).

Alright, imma post it. I may keep some parts of it the same, but more likely most of it will need to be reworked now that Castrael didn't get lynched.

---


The Town debated its options back and forth, but while there were many active in discussion, it took only a few scattered votes to seal the deal. Castrael fought her hardest, but she was unable to rouse the apathetic Town members to save her, and so she was wrestled to the Town Square where her execution awaited. There, with her head on the chopping block and the Town screaming (or, rather, a few scattered members of the Town vaguely muttering) for her blood, she locked eyes with the man who stood on the deck across from her, and she suddenly knew.

"Wait! It's him! I know it's him!" she screamed at the crowd, but most of them didn't bother even to acknowledge her words. As the guillotine blade came down and her nemesis smiled, Castrael had just one final thought:

I should...have told them...I was the Oracle..

Standing above the fray and observing it all, Black Yoshi, the Godfather, knew the end was nigh. His Mafiosos had managed to turn the Town against each other with mere rumors of their presence--accusation after accusation flew, but almost none of them even struck a single Mafia member. On top of it all, he knew he had an ally in their midst, and with that ally came the numbers he needed to take over this Town. It was all too easy--the Town had done all the work for them.

Heads turned as Black Yoshi fired a flare gun into the air, but while half of the Town scratched their heads in confusion, the other half sprang into action. Jo Nathan, who had chosen to abstain from the vote in order to ensure someone was lynched, suddenly found himself with a knife to his throat. "Thanks for whittling them down for us," his assailant, hezekiah the Traitor, murmured smugly, just before he slit the poor Townie's throat. Screaming filled the air as the Town, finally and too late, showed signs of life, fleeing to the hills...and leaving the rest of them to hunt them down.

CtR Black, Townie, rushed down a nearby alleyway, but he quickly discovered he wasn't alone. There, the dreaded Town Hooker awaited, and it took just one sharpened stiletto to the throat to bring him down. MajorasMask9, proud of his handiwork and happy to get the win he was denied last game, stepped lightly over the corpse and followed the sounds of gunshots coming from near the fountain. It was lucky, he surmised, that so few noticed his relative absence from this game--otherwise they might have actually stood a chance at taking the Mafia down.

Black Yoshi stalked his prey with a smile on his face as the last two remaining members of the Town fled from his imposing presence (or, more likely, the very very large submachine gun he held in his hands). They seemed to be escaping, but Yoshi knew something they didn't, and his smirk turned into a cackle as Count Dooku, the Mafioso, came out of the Town Hall building wielding dual pistols. The two Town members collapsed in despair at the base of the fountain, holding hands one last time; the two Mafia members nodded to one another and opened fire; and Xhin and chiefsonny, the Lovers and the last members of the Town, fell together in a hail of bullets.

---

I spent enough time on that that I didn't want it not to see the light of day. :P After that, the post would have contained the list of players and an analysis as to why the game played out the way it did--I'm keeping most of the analysis for the actual ending post, but one point will probably be left out since it didn't quite end the game for the Town (although I still think it was a bad play):

4. Castrael didn't roleclaim on Day 3--I really don't understand why she didn't come out as the Oracle when the Town was turning against her. There is literally no reason not to roleclaim if you're about to be voted off anyway, and it might have saved the Town or at least forced one of the Mafia members to put themselves in the spotlight by counter-claiming. My guess is that they would have instead tried to get chief lynched, but chief would have been able to claim as well (the Bulletproof Vest makes this feasible) and maybe Yoshi (or Jo) would have gotten the axe.

And of course I forget to italicize Cas's final thoughts. :P I originally attempted to move the reply directly from the Host thread here, but I guess I can't do that. The post vanished and I have no idea where it is now.

Thank you, Roxas! I was hoping it would be suitably epic. :)

Also, here's a bit of a sneak peek (DO NOT SHARE THIS WITH ANYONE IN THE GAME): the Mafia have selected one of the Lovers as their target. Unless they change their vote, there's a 50% chance the Town will survive to another day.

Yes, I didn't figure I could outdo you in terms of gore. :P