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Mafia

Moderated by: Speed Bike Pro

game 2 day 2 lets see those accusations

Posted March 15, 2012 by Yeano

DAY 1

Good morning, everyone! Let's survey the wonderful town and see who is with us!


1. MajorasMask9
2. #85
3. Shadowwalked
4. `Roxas`
5. Feral
6. Black Yoshi
7. white lancer
8. Knukles2000
9. BCB
10. Helius
11. Xhin
12. chiefsonny
13. LLight
14. CtR Black
15. hezekiah

What a lovely cast of characters!

But it appears there is some danger in this town...

The Mafia-Town ratio is 4-11.

Using our wonderful tracking powers, we were able to determine that the following roles are in play: Godfather (1), Silencer (1), Mafioso (2), Cop (1), Doctor (1), Vigilante (1), Townie (8).

As always, you have 72 hours or 9 votes.

WARNING: If your role changes to "Silenced" during the game, that means you are silenced, and are not allowed to speak! If you speak, you will be killed by a host-kill.

There are 189 Replies

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Oh it feels great to be off of that noose!

No vote.

March 15, 2012
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`Roxas`

No vote.

For the record, I will probably be gone Friday through Sunday night, so if I'm abnormally quiet, that's why.

I miiiiight be able to get on mobile but not positive.

March 15, 2012
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BCB

No vote , first round sacrifices are dumb.

March 15, 2012
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#85

No vote.

March 15, 2012
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Knukles2000

No vote.

March 15, 2012
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Xhin
Sky's the limit

I'll start off by saying that everything here can be considered false until proven otherwise, so we should stick to truths that we know we can verify.

First question, why are first round votes bad? You have a 36% chance of killing a mafioso while the mafioso has a 91% chance of killing a townie role the next round. It's 91% because there's a 1/11 chance of the doctor saving that person. Not counting the other roles like WG and Vigilante...

That said, I'll spin on CtR Black.

I'd say I pissed off a lot of people before the reset, so I'm still likely to die. It's up to you guys. Still an all powerful townie here... Good luck.

March 15, 2012
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LLight

I vote no vote. {<OO}

March 15, 2012
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MajorasMask9

No vote as well.

(Short reply cause I am at work.)

March 16, 2012
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Helius

Well we're at 7 people with No Vote already. So 1 more and we've got a majority...

There are certainly more variables to LLight's equation, such as the various roles that may be taken out, either by town vote or mafia.

March 16, 2012
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hezekiah

It's not very well thought out, but worth a shot. Looks like a lot of people are fans of the no vote policy though. Are you feeling lucky? No one has really explained why other than that they don't like it.

March 16, 2012
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LLight

So your gameplan is Randomly vote for a guy who hasnt even answered yet?

March 16, 2012
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#85

I generally don't go for voting randomly at the start of the game, either, but I still think that every person just throwing down "no vote" right away just isn't helpful. It's so easy for the Mafia to blend in with that and gives us absolutely no information.

March 16, 2012
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white lancer

I think lancer and LLight are being a bit suspicious here. I mean its obvious that we can't just no vote the whole game but the way they are going about it seems suspicious..

March 16, 2012
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#85

Seeing as LLight is the only one so far to vote for somebody, I think that should he be the one the Mafia takes out in the night round then we should consider what he says.

Actually, not necessarily. I misread what he had said.

March 16, 2012
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`Roxas`

no vote for now

March 16, 2012
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Shadowwalked

And Shadow closes the round with No Vote, meaning I get to slip though this round without making any decisions.

No wait, we need 9, and Shadow is #8. Oh, what the Hell, No Vote for me.

That misreading thing can be "killer". I misread what you posted, Roxas, swapping the words "should" and "he", completely changing your reply.

March 16, 2012
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Feral

I think lancer and LLight are being a bit suspicious here. I mean its obvious that we can't just no vote the whole game but the way they are going about it seems suspicious..

It only makes sense that jumping into a "no vote" right away (without any deliberation) is going to do the town absolutely no good. The first round is already over and we only have 16 posts in this thread, most of them some variation of "I vote no vote."

I agree that we probably shouldn't vote anyone off this round, but part of that is that we have absolutely nothing to go off of. Some people haven't even responded, and a few more have responded with a few words at most. There's no real point in having a first day round if we just throw it away right when it starts.

March 16, 2012
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white lancer

So what exactly do you think we should do, white lancer?

I will rescind my no vote, for now.

March 16, 2012
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`Roxas`

First, I'd make note of those who just jumped on the bandwagon for the "no vote" campaign without really adding anything else. It's a really easy way to blend in, and it would make sense for the Mafia to take advantage of that. Obviously not everyone who did that is Mafia, but it's a place to start. So...

Roxas
BCB
Knuckles
Xhin
Majora
Helius
Shadow
Feral

I'm not saying we should immediately lynch one of these people, but I don't think we should take it off the table completely--there are fewer Townies this time but the same number of Mafia, so our chances of hitting someone are higher than they were the last couple of games. If we can get a good sense of someone, it might be worth it. I personally would like to hear a bit more from them. Why so quick to jump on the "no vote" bandwagon?

March 16, 2012
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white lancer

While I still have my earlier suspicions, I'm most suspicious of the people that sit back and don't talk, as I think that's not a good strategy unless maybe you are the cop.

CtRblack
Chiefsonny
Blackyoshi

Haven't even posted yet. I understand some people may be busy, ect, but it's worth noting.

March 16, 2012
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#85

85 has stated three persons he's suspicious of within this game.

LLight has voted for CtR Black.

I have a couple people that I am suspicious of, regardless of whether they have posted or not. I'm not sure that I want to name those persons, but they are on my watch list.


As for what you are saying, white lancer, it does make better sense to vote for somebody this game, given the odds. It may not be a bad idea to vote for somebody. Not necessarily mob mentality, but we should talk it out before jumping to a final vote.

March 16, 2012
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`Roxas`

@White Lancer, you said you'd want to hear more from us? Very well. But all I can say is I kept silent merely for my own protection. It's like you don't want to be that first person to speak up. Else the Town or vigilante suspect you, or the mafia dosn't like what your saying. Thats rly all there is to it. But theres no way I can prove that either way.

March 16, 2012
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Knukles2000

"Haven't even posted yet. I understand some people may be busy, ect, but it's worth noting."

Sorry about not posting sooner. But my wife is in the hospital and I've been doing a lot of running back and forth and when I've been to the site it's been for admin duties. Things have settled down now thank god.

As I have said in the past I don't like the "No Vote" because I think it gives the Mafia a free crack at us and we, by not voting, don't at least take a shot in the dark at getting one of them. It's a win-win for them.

I'm going to just write down very name, put them in a box or coffee can, and pick one. Who knows the one I pick, just may be one of them.

The other thing is, and maybe someone can give me the answer. Why is the round over after a majority vote if there is still time left to discuss and maybe change minds? Or am I understanding that wrong?

Since there seems to be a majority, I guess there's no need to vote. But if we're allowed to vote for the full 72 hours, I will pull a name from the can. Because that's going to be just the same as pointing fingers at other people while you cast a No Vote.

March 16, 2012
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chiefsonny
 

That's why I rescinded my vote so that we may deliberate up until we feel that we have made a unanimous decision after all of our options have been discussed.

Also, I hope your wife has a speedy recovery, chief.

March 16, 2012
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`Roxas`

Hope your wife gets better soon, Chief.

Rather than pulling a name from a hat, you could just use random.org to decide who to vote for. Fact is, it's essentially a crapshoot regardless of when we nominate people, since people don't have perfect information.

March 16, 2012
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hezekiah

Haha anyone who says anything in this game can be considered suspicious, but all the suspicion accusations are utter bullshit in the first round. You can talk the most shit and it won't prove a damn thing. A first round no vote does not benefit the town at all. You're letting the special role townies and the mafia get the first jump on you. You think you can win the game with a defensive stance? A no vote in the first round only guarantees you start at a loss. It's a much better idea to toss the roulette in, at least there you have a chance of nailing mafia like we did with cheifsonny in the round before the reset.

March 16, 2012
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LLight

Thank you for the well wishes for my wife and please, don't that influence your votes in anyway. Just wanted to explain why I had not posted yet. Have been a little slow posting at the site also.

LLight has a good point. A no vote in the first round only gives us a loss, and them one less of us to worry about. But if we get luck, they're down to 3.

March 16, 2012
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chiefsonny
 

Should we each name the players we believe to be Mafia and deliberate, or just vote for somebody that we believe to be Mafia on our own?

March 16, 2012
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`Roxas`

"Should we each name the players we believe to be Mafia and deliberate, or just vote for somebody that we believe to be Mafia on our own?"

To deliberate in the first round is only going to get you other opinions which may or may not agree with your's. Because the fact is we know nothing about anyone yet.

We could talk about what happened in the first game or the abbreviated game, but that's not fair since each game roles change.
For what it's worth, imo, in the first round you have to vote what you feel and hope you're right.

March 16, 2012
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chiefsonny
 

In that case, I have to think over who I want to vote for out of my thoughts. My vote shall be in by midnight tomorrow.

March 16, 2012
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`Roxas`

It's nearly impossible to tell who is what unless you're the cop since it's the only role that can investigate people. Everything else is up to probability. If the cop dies and makes a vote, then it's probably a good idea to vote for the person they voted for... Of course even if you claimed to be a cop, there's no reason for anyone to believe you, so that's kind of moot.

March 17, 2012
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LLight

Geez, I had better read up on what all the roles actually do...

It seems like people are starting to come around to killing someone off, but it's gonna be real hard to get any sort of consensus. So really, we'd almost be best off just randomly choosing. I'll vote for whatever the RNG gods decide: 1-6 is 1, 7-12 is 2, etc. 91-100 is nobody, since 100 isn't evenly divisible by 15.

March 17, 2012
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hezekiah

55 would mean it's person 10, Helius.

March 17, 2012
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hezekiah

NIGHT 1

Good night, everyone! Sleep well! No one was killed today, so you can all rest nicely... except for anyone who dies {:)}


1. MajorasMask9
2. #85
3. Shadowwalked
4. `Roxas`
5. Feral
6. Black Yoshi
7. white lancer
8. Knukles2000
9. BCB
10. Helius
11. Xhin
12. chiefsonny
13. LLight
14. CtR Black
15. hezekiah


The Mafia-Town ratio is 4-11.

Godfather (1), Silencer (1), Mafioso (2), Cop (1), Doctor (1), Vigilante (1), Townie (8).

As always, you have 24 hours to get your night actions in.

WARNING: If your role changes to "Silenced" during the game, that means you are silenced, and are not allowed to speak! If you speak, you will be killed by a host-kill.

March 17, 2012
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Yeano

DAY 2

In the morning, LLight came rushing back to town to tell his tale. In the night, he was shot! But then, as his vision began to fade, he saw a shadowy figure leaning over him with a scalpel. The next day, he was alive.


1. MajorasMask9
2. #85
3. Shadowwalked
4. `Roxas`
5. Feral
6. Black Yoshi
7. white lancer
8. Knukles2000
9. BCB
10. Helius
11. Xhin
12. chiefsonny
13. LLight
14. CtR Black
15. hezekiah


The Mafia-Town ratio is 4-11.

Godfather (1), Silencer (1), Mafioso (2), Cop (1), Doctor (1), Vigilante (1), Townie (8).

72 hours or 9 votes.

WARNING: If your role changes to "Silenced" during the game, that means you are silenced, and are not allowed to speak! If you speak, you will be killed by a host-kill.

March 18, 2012
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Yeano

So either the Mafia is throwing us off, or CtR is in fact a member of the crime ring.

EDIT: We know that LLight is Town-sided.

March 18, 2012
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`Roxas`

Has CtR done anything on the site since the game began?

March 18, 2012
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hezekiah

Yeano: why does it require 9 votes? 8 is a majority...

March 18, 2012
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hezekiah

I'm going with 60% instead of simple majority. This way, even if a majority is reached, people can change their votes until there is a 60% majority.

March 18, 2012
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Yeano

I'm sorry, i was on spring break.

I came back today during the night and read the accusations against me. I was going to say LLight was probably in the mafia. but, i guess not.

EDIT: So I think mafia is trying to throw us off

March 18, 2012
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CtR Black

Well, do you have any ideas as to who could be Mafia, CtR?

March 18, 2012
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`Roxas`

I dont think it was #85, as he was against LLight's random voting policy.

I think lancer and LLight are being a bit suspicious here. I mean its obvious that we can't just no vote the whole game but the way they are going about it seems suspicious..

March 18, 2012
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CtR Black

I see.

For the moment, I will cast my vote for Xhin. Nothing personal, but we have to unfortunately start somewhere.

March 18, 2012
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`Roxas`

Well that was a close one, we're basically back to round 1 since no one has died in two rounds. Thanks for now, space cowboy. The mafia would not target their own.

Anything done in the first round is not suspicious yet because there were no leads, but it doesn't make sense that going against a random vote is an indicator of any side, much less alluding to the idea that he is a townie, but it might make sense if CtR Black was covering for another mafioso (possibly #85) who puts CtR Black into his initial suspicion list while the other two (chiefsonny and Black Yoshi) are potentially townie sided. It is more suspicious to say you are suspicious of other people when there are no real grounds for suspicion. white lancer on the other hand was pointing out a definite truth.

#85 is smarter than the average bear, hangs around Spirituality. People make mistakes, but I don't think he's that stupid.

Shadowwalked, if clever enough to use poptartface to fabricate a story about his sister being in a car crash to his advantage for not posting, well we've never known prince of pain to be sincere unless he was getting something out of it like trying to be friends with ravenspirit when she was moderator. pop's behaviour outside of this game is suspiciously out of character if the car crash is true or in character for the person we all know he is... but there's no way to verify. I think chiefsonny's story is different because he wasn't as focused on the flood/monkey eater/Buckles situation this morning when he was online.

That said, the roulette spins on #85 for my vote.

March 18, 2012
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LLight

Oh and a request for our dear GM, if I die, can it be so freakin' epic? Like that time I single handedly took out all 4 mafiosos.

March 18, 2012
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LLight

One person that's caught my eye is white lancer... he lobbied against No Vote, yet still said he probably wouldn't vote for anyone in the first round. He then gathered a list of everyone that voted NV, in essence nominating half the town.

March 18, 2012
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hezekiah

It's not much of a nomination if you're identifying people who voted NV. He also left out #85 who also NV'd..

March 18, 2012
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LLight

By saying that a "no vote" would be easy for the Mafia to blend in does seem like nominating those who do vote that way.

March 18, 2012
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`Roxas`

Sorry guys, i've been sleeping, and dealing with crap.

But anyway, i'm going to wing this and also vote Xhin. He is pretty suspicious to me this game. But then so is #85. But I see Xhin as the greater priority IF he is mafia.

March 18, 2012
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Knukles2000

it is more suspicious to say you are suspicious

Every game I have gone after the people that don't talk. I think the standard mafia strategy is sit back and watch everyone point fingers (like right now)

Xhin seems to be playing a different kind of game this game. Little suspicious in my book. Not even because there's one vote for me and two for him, but he sure is talking a lot less.

Vote for Xhin (may change)

I think we should also discuss doing a no vote, we haven't really learned anything besides LLight is a townie.

March 18, 2012
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#85

EDIT: call me crazy, but i think LLight shot himself! no im kidding

I think a No vote would be good.

And about blending in, I also think itd be easier to blend in with a no vote the first round, as there are four mafias, and 8 people who no voted. few people voted, and one of them got killed.

I vote for Feral.

March 18, 2012
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CtR Black

Why feral, CtR?

March 18, 2012
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#85

i think most of the mafia are no voters. so its mostly random. and no voting was his only post

March 18, 2012
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CtR Black

The same could be said for Xhin though, CtR.

March 18, 2012
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`Roxas`

Why don't we try my theory out? If it's not true then I'd be down for taking out the no-talkers.

March 18, 2012
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LLight

What is your theory

March 18, 2012
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CtR Black

His theory is kill me :(

March 18, 2012
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#85

To knock off you and #85. Are you okay with that? Roles only get revealed when you die. If he ends up not being mafia, then we can re-evaluate our choices.

We should not go with more NRs because that does nothing for our odds, leaving the percentage small. Statistically speaking, the closer the ratio, the higher the percentage is, therefore giving us a better chance of nailing someone.

March 18, 2012
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LLight

I think what LLight is saying is we gamble on #85, Shadowwalked (though I would hope there is more respect and integrity for the game than your theory states, LLight), poptart! and yourself, CtR. This is the alternative to voting for those who don't talk much this game.

March 18, 2012
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`Roxas`

Wait, let me be clear, you think we are BOTH mafia because *I* pointed out he wasnt talking?

March 18, 2012
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#85

well first of all i'd prefer not to die.

Statistically speaking, the closer the ratio, the better chance we have of nailing someone.

Then I think we should no vote and see who the mafia kills.

March 18, 2012
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CtR Black

If we vote wrong, then thats one townie dead, plus one from the mafia. Numbers are on our side if we no vote. Plus we have no leads.

March 18, 2012
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CtR Black

Wait, let me be clear, you think we are BOTH mafia because *I* pointed out he wasnt talking?

Not because you said they weren't talking, but because you said they were suspicious for not talking. That's the key word here.

And to be honest, I didn't care last game if I died. It would only reveal my role as a townie and whoever initiated the idea to vote is wrong, but in that game (that technically never happened), I was right in my reasoning since I accurately pointed out 3/4 of the mafia where the last one fell into place because of one perturbed individual.

March 18, 2012
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LLight

If we vote wrong, then thats one townie dead, plus one from the mafia. Numbers are on our side if we no vote. Plus we have no leads.

The percentage of killing a mafioso next round increases if a townie is killed. 4/11 = 36%, 4/10 = 40%. It's also possible for the vigilante to kill an additional member. Chances of killing a special townie role is 3/11, much smaller than our chances of killing a mafioso.

Edit: I also just noticed there's no Wheel Gator in this game. XD

March 18, 2012
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LLight

One person that's caught my eye is white lancer... he lobbied against No Vote, yet still said he probably wouldn't vote for anyone in the first round. He then gathered a list of everyone that voted NV, in essence nominating half the town.

I thought I made this pretty clear. I wasn't lobbying against No Vote, but against closing the round without any discussion. No Vote is a viable option in several situations, including the first round, but it shouldn't be the only option we consider for the first round because then the Mafia will just go along with the crowd.

And I left out #85 because it was a list of people who hadn't said anything other than "No vote"--the people who weren't taking risks. #85 had been arguing with myself and LLight at that point. That being said, I do think LLight has a good point, so I'll cast my vote for #85 as well.

March 18, 2012
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white lancer

if a no talker townie gets taken out, isn't that as bad as a townie that talks getting taken out? We aren't going to learn anything until the cop comes forward which will most likely be a few rounds from now

And I think me playing the same way I was the last two games when I was a townie should speak for me being a townie itself.

March 18, 2012
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#85

Well I was never one to pay close attention to the last few games, even though there may be something to learn, I've based my reasoning on the type of people you are outside of the game. Though there are some of you that I may not know very well.

It's equally as reasonable to blend in with your own pattern from previous games to mask the possibility that you are a mafioso. We can go with a no talker next round if I'm wrong as well as alternate any other strategies people come up with. It's a mixed bag of tricks, one or two mafioso could be silent, or they're talking. This is an unknown variable since 3/4 of them could be doing it or all of them are, therefore this value is better represented as ((x/4)/11). The one truth is identifying the percentage of hitting a mafioso because whether a person talks or not is not necessarily indicative of a person's role.

This is the type of game we're playing. I would have made a good cop this game because after almost getting killed, there should be little reason to suspect that I am mafia. It could have also been the vigilante who initiated the kill while the mafia stayed silent. That's also a reasonable possibility. So listen closely, I am not immune if you vote to kill me. Your real lives are not a stake because this is just a game. An additional 1 point at the end for surviving is of little value.

As we are now with this reasoning, the real cop is of little value in a game of chance if they cannot take leadership.

March 18, 2012
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LLight

I think you are holding a bit of bias just because I suspected you first round (which was reasonable because you wanted a random kill when we wanted a no vote) and you got targeted (which makes me look like the perfect scapegoat for the mafia)

I've said my arguments and it sounds like you aren't changing your mind, so there's really nothing else I can do, except hope we don't have a repeat of last game where everyon
e just follows one person (like shadowalked)

And I'm open to a no vote but my vote is still for Xhin. Would like to go with LLight, a confirmed townies plan but he's targeting me so, yeah.

March 18, 2012
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#85

Well you could say round one turned out pretty good.

No townies were lost.

Showed LLight is not Mafia or the Doctor unless he was able to revive himself.

"Shadowwalked, if clever enough to use poptartface to fabricate a story about his sister being in a car crash to his advantage for not posting,"

I hope that is not what happened. I can not believe that someone would fake a serious tragedy for the sake of a game.
If anyone here thinks I made it up about my wife. Then vote me out.
I'm from the old school, you don't make up shit
like that.

Not sure who to vote for yet. But it will not be a No Vote. Be back later.

March 18, 2012
Edit
chiefsonny
 

I believe chiefsonny's story simply because of the posts I read in the mod forum and the type of person he is... He's less likely than a pop/Shadowwalked combination because it is in his character to act that way and it is in their character to act that way. If there is any flaw in this observation, then it is because there's no way to verify these stories as true.

And just to be clear, you are less convinced that I am mafia. That does not exclude me or chiefsonny from being voted as the person to kill. So, if the island votes it, anyone of us could be next.

March 18, 2012
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LLight

how many votes are for Xhin?

March 18, 2012
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CtR Black

Me, roxas and knuckles so far

Lancer and LLight voted for me

3-2

March 18, 2012
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#85

If the score stays this way i will change my vote to you. If it is tied noone will die

March 18, 2012
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CtR Black

In the chance that I unexpectedly die, please remember my train of thought and reasoning in this topic.

March 18, 2012
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LLight

But LLight, would it really matter if we vote off one of the people who are barely talking, and if it turns out that they are a Townie then use your strategy? It doesn't really seem like it matters, other than increasing our odds of hitting a Mafioso in future rounds.

March 18, 2012
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`Roxas`

Hm... Where has Xhin been this entire time? He has a majority vote against him. He may have been silenced, but what if it's to lay low to lower suspicion? Just saying.

March 18, 2012
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Knukles2000

Poptart also hasn't talked this whole game though. Just throwing this stuff out there.

March 18, 2012
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Knukles2000

Uh, if I may point out that poptart! isn't playing this time.

March 18, 2012
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`Roxas`

Uh, if I may point out that poptart! isn't playing this time.

Your right. . I guess it's that time of the year where my memory is all screwed up. Carry on then, i'll try to keep up and do all I can.

March 18, 2012
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Knukles2000

Sorry for the absence. Took a few days away from GT to clear my head.

It would say it's very possible for LLight to have healed himself, but in Yeano's description of the events, LLight was suppose to have seen a separate figure wielding a scapal. Unless he was treating himself while delerious, he can NOT be the doctor.

I feel bad for Xhin if he is silenced. Talk about being defenseless.{:(}

Either way, the silenced person is one of four people; Xhin, Helius, BCB, or Black Yoshi. Yoshi is not much of a talker to begin with, but the other three are usually blabbermouths. I believe 1 is silenced and at least two of the other three are mafia.

I vote for Xhin, since he is in my list, and already has votes.

March 18, 2012
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Feral

As it stands right now:

  • Xhin: 5 votes (Knux, #85, Feral, hezekiah and myself)
  • #85: 2 votes (LLight and white lancer)
  • No vote: 2 votes (Shadowwalked and MajorasMask9)
  • Feral: 1 vote (CtR)

    • March 18, 2012
    Edit
    `Roxas`

    But LLight, would it really matter if we vote off one of the people who are barely talking, and if it turns out that they are a Townie then use your strategy? It doesn't really seem like it matters, other than increasing our odds of hitting a Mafioso in future rounds.

    We can vote off a non-talker next round, but it looks like the majority doesn't like it.

    March 18, 2012
    Edit
    LLight

    It's not that I don't like that idea, it just seems that it could be interchanged.

    March 18, 2012
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    `Roxas`

    Meh... Xhin is just as good a suspicion as #85 imo.

    March 18, 2012
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    Knukles2000

    Shadowwalked, if clever enough to use poptartface to fabricate a story about his sister being in a car crash to his advantage for not posting

    I actually got an erection from reading this. It brings a tear of joy to my eye that people think I can be so ruthless and vile in even the most trivial of things.

    As for voting, I still haven't seen any real trends, so I'll continue on with a no vote until I get some real power behind my words.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Shadowwalked

    The more I think about it, the more I think Xhin may have been silenced. Can't be for certain, of course.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    `Roxas`

    It was comedy gold the way that played out.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    LLight

    Xhin's a smart cookie. Idk, seems like he could just be playing silent to prevent himself from drawing more attention to himself. Plus it'd be better than any argument he could make at this point.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Knukles2000

    It's been 24 hours (give or take a hour) and by my count 5 people have not responded in this round. Only one can be silenced.
    I will try to wait and see if they reply and what they have to say before voting.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    chiefsonny
     

    Assuming that those other four are Mafia, we wait to see who responds next round and start voting for the other four, right? Of course the likelihood of that happening is very slight. You'd think that one of the other four would have at least responded by now, though.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    `Roxas`

    It was comedy gold the way that played out.

    I agree, I got to laughing pretty hard reading those responses. Everyone should know that the only response to my possible death is a sorrowful roar into the night.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Shadowwalked

    I dunno, to me it doesn't seem like #85 is really concealing much. I vote for Xhin.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    hezekiah

    Thank god no one pointed out that I barely said anything this game when the no-talker votes were going on.

    I'm going to no-vote. Am normally against that since it gives the mafia a kill, but it's only one kill. If we kill someone that's innocent, it narrows down the possible power roles. In particular, the more nights the cop is alive, the more useful they'll be. If we're going based on the probability of certain roles dying, it seems like a *safer* move to no-vote this day round.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    MajorasMask9

    There is some truth to that. A cop is only useful until dead though, in which case we back track his votes and go for the kills since we can't trust what anyone has to say. A doctor on the other hand is more useful.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    LLight

    Good points, LLight.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    `Roxas`

    Except the mafia have a 100% chance of killing a townie role and a 3/7=42% of killing a special townie role. The more people drop, the better chances increase.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    LLight

    I will take back my vote for Xhin, for the moment. I want to be confident in my pick, and right now I anything but that.

    UPDATED:
    Xhin: 4 votes (Knux, #85, Feral and hezekiah)
    #85: 2 votes (LLight and white lancer)
    No vote: 2 votes (Shadowwalked and MajorasMask9)
    Feral: 1 vote (CtR)

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    `Roxas`

    Clearly my newness is showing... is it announced what the role is of somebody who gets killed?

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    hezekiah

    Yes, the role is revealed. I just don't want to vote for somebody when I am having doubts about my initial decision.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    `Roxas`

    Sorry guys, I've been a little burned out on this game since I broke it (and then Llight broke the second incarnation of it). Also I've been busy elsewhere on the site.

    I'll get to this post when I have the time, my strategy this game and the last one was to wait for more information before jumping the gun and getting innocent townies killed.

    Also, if I was a mafia, why on earth would I lay low for virtually the entire game, including while being targeted by a majority of votes? It would be a much better strategy to blend in with the major waves of thought without making too many bold moves on my own.

    My vote is No Vote for now, but that'll change as I look over the post.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Xhin
    Sky's the limit

    Actually, to be honest, I was hoping you guys would try to nominate me. It's a risky strategy, but having someone who plays completely different than everyone else will automatically make them a suspect. And if there's a clear suspect, it's in the best interest of the mafia to jump on board with it.

    So, the four votes for myself have been `Roxas`, Knuckles2000, #85, and Feral.

    It's unlikely that `Roxas` is mafia, because voting for me is "making a wave", something that may become suspicious later. It's also unlikely that three out of four of the mafia are going to play the same strategy (something I learned in the first game). Their best bet is to disperse their strategies and even argue against each other. However, I think it's highly likely that one or two of the above people are mafia.

    So, we have #85, Feral, and Knuckles2000 so far. It's been a full day, so I don't think any more mafia members will jump on board with this plan, so I should be free to speak.

    #85 is already being targeted, and if he dies, it will help validate or invalidate Llight's theory. However I'm not going to vote for him until I research this more.

    March 19, 2012
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    Xhin
    Sky's the limit

    I just want to point out that I took away my vote to kill you, Xhin.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    `Roxas`

    Or we are just innocent Townies that suspect you, Xhin. You knock off me, my innocence would be proven, and you would be undoubtedly suspected as a mafia. So by all means people, target me. It'll only prove Xhin is mafia.

    March 19, 2012
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    Knukles2000

    Call me crazy, but I think we should wait until two of BCB, Helius and Black Yoshi make a post. If two of them make a post, we know that one of the three is a townie.

    People we know would be a townie are (other than our individual selves):

    LLight
    BCB/Helius/Black Yoshi

    We would further know who not to kill for later rounds.

    I think everybody should rescind the vote they cast until we know who of those three are a townie for certain.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    `Roxas`

    I feel like I've missed something, Roxas. How would them posting prove whether or not they are Townies?

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    white lancer

    ^ Probably has to do with the silencer.

    I'm also going to go ahead and say that silencer targets shouldn't really be used as a form of proving people innocent. I've seen it a number of times where the mafia would target one of their own to be silenced just to make it seem like they're townies; it's a pretty common thought that the mafia will sometimes have. It's a lot safer for the mafia to do that than targeting one of their own for a kill and praying for a doctor protect. I'd pretty much ignore silencer targets as a form of evidence, it'll just end in a WIFOM-esque scenario.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    MajorasMask9

    Unless there was no one silenced this round because a lot of people are busy (including me). I tried to make a post from my phone yesterday while I was at work; however, it kept on telling me that I was using the wrong password even though I was signed in.

    I have spent the last couple of nights and mornings working pretty ragged. You can tell that by my posts on Jedi Sith. Usually, I am pretty good about posting on a predictable schedule; however, I have worked all day Thursday (12 hour shift) to work another 9 hour shift on Friday while other things occurred. I worked a 8 hour shift on Saturday then drove halfway across my state to attend a business meeting where there was no internet access. I then drove back to work in the morning yesterday, and worked an eight hour shift. I went home and collapsed. Thursday and Friday I closed my store down. Saturday, Sunday, and Today I will be opening my store up. In case, you were wondering where I've been all of this time.

    I'm also going to go ahead and say that silencer targets shouldn't really be used as a form of proving people innocent.

    Definitely, since the Mafia can silence anyone they like. There is no rule against them NOT silencing Mafia.

    voting for me is "making a wave", something that may become suspicious later.

    But wouldn't that be something a Mafia member might say to cast suspicion elsewhere? Just saying... I can understand you being busy, but we were going with random votes anyhow. If we vote off a townie/mafia/role off randomly, we're still going to be making a wave.

    In which case, my vote goes to Xhin.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Helius

    I change my vote to no vote

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    CtR Black

    No vote: 5 votes (Shadowwalked, Xhin, CtR, MajorasMask9 and myself)
    Xhin: 4 votes (Knux, #85, Feral and hezekiah)
    #85: 2 votes (LLight and white lancer)


    I didn't take that in to account when thinking who the Mafia would silence.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    `Roxas`

    Great, no vote has the majority. We're about to throw away another change to lynch someone, and give the mafia all the more chance of winning overall. This is a GREAT strategy. Let's just sit back till they lynch ALL the townies off. As I said the last game, even though I was on a different side, it's still true. The info we need may never come.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Knukles2000

    No vote: 5
    Xhin: 5 (Knux, #85, Feral, hezekiah + helius)
    #85: 2 votes

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    CtR Black

    I see. So we'd need one more vote for Xhin. At this point, #85 most likely won't get it either way.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Knukles2000

    After Helius vote 4 or 5 hours ago there should be 5 votes for Xhin.

    That makes a total of 12 votes and I have not voted yet, which means at least 2 Mafia have voted.

    Will vote later tonight when I get back home. It will not be a No Vote.

    Sorry about giving the numbers again. Must have been typing when CtR posted.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    chiefsonny
     

    Knuckles is starting to look more and more suspicious.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Xhin
    Sky's the limit

    That won't do you any good, Xhin. I WANT to be voted out. My innocence would only be proven, and you would be exposed.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Knukles2000

    I haven't directly accused you knuckles. I said there was a good potential of one or two of the following people being mafia: Roxas, #85, You, feral (and now helius as well maybe). My best guess was for #85, not for you.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Xhin
    Sky's the limit

    I know. But my best guess is you. under the circumstances, i'd even go as far as to guess that you may be the godfather. By the way you are talking. And the way, and timing you are being silent. But I guess theres only one way to find out.

    If I am not here next round, chances are the Mafia silenced, or killed me. OR the vigilante simply found me suspicious for whatever reason. Though bear in mind, I am not sure Xhin is Mafia. I only suspect it highly.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Knukles2000

    Thank you for that correction, CtR.

    Though I can see how Knux is taking that as a direct attack, since you are only naming those people who have voted for you, Xhin.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    `Roxas`

    Xhin wants to off himself, so shouldn't a vote for yourself count as a vote? I considered using this as part of a strategy if I were the cop once I figured out at least 3/4 of the mafia, then leave the rest up to chance for fun. Since your role is revealed when you die, everyone would be stupid not to believe you.

    And for MajoraMask9's last post where he mentions the silencer could target one of their own is also a viable mafia strategy, but if you do it based on probability, then it won't matter if the person is silenced or not.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    LLight

    Call it what you want. But I have reason to suspect Xhin heavily. Why I am calling him out. I have nothing to lose when I die. My role will prove it. But I believe Xhin does have a role to hide. Whether it be Townie, or Mafia sided, however. I can not say for sure.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Knukles2000

    If you'll notice, during the last game I played extremely hardcore and no one targeted me and the cop also didn't check me out. Clearly the best strategy I could take if I was mafia would be to speak up a lot, or be slightly more soft-spoken than before. Not speaking at all is a terrible strategy because it instantly targets me as the mafia by everyone else.

    One of the reasons I've been so silent is because I figured there being a clear suspect would make mafia members reveal themselves more easily. It's important to get some kind of theorizing down early in the game and I couldn't see any other way of doing it since people are reluctant to point fingers early on in the game.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Xhin
    Sky's the limit

    Also Knuckles is basing his accusations on a person's speech. Doing this is a flawed observation because what a person says can not be proven right or wrong. Stick to the absolute truths we can tether to the ground.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    LLight

    We shall see.

    Also Knuckles is basing his accusations on a person's speech. Doing this is a flawed observation because what a person says can not be proven right or wrong. Stick to the absolute truths we can tether to the ground.

    There is no absolute truth for regular townies. Why I am trying to give the blind some kind of ground to walk on.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Knukles2000

    Well let's start theorizing then. Who do you think is most likely to be Mafia at the present moment, Xhin everybody?

    March 19, 2012
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    `Roxas`

    I have stated my reasons. But beyond that, Roxas. I can not currently say. Like Shadowwalked was the doctor, you will just have to trust me, or don't. As it's your choice.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Knukles2000

    But beyond that even, he talks like someone who WANTS to be investigated.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Knukles2000

    I haven't really checked the post out yet, but I'll do so now. I do think it's likely that one or maybe two of the people that voted for me are mafia, because I'm the *obvious choice*, however it's extremely unlikely that that person is you because you started it.

    So we're left with: #85, Feral, Knuckles2000, Helius.

    Now, I wouldn't recommend killing these people off randomly, since that's exactly the kind of thing that screwed up the last game. However it does give us something to work with. People to watch and compare their posts. Maybe people for the cop to check out.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Xhin
    Sky's the limit

    Just for the record. I agree with Xhin on Helius. Idk what he's playing at with it though.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Knukles2000

    But beyond that even, he talks like someone who WANTS to be investigated.

    Ah, but if I was the godfather than playing weirdly enough for me to be investigated would be a very bad strategy. If I'm checked out and it says I'm a townie, and the cop steps forward, then there'd still be this nagging doubt that I'm the godfather because of how I played in the beginning. A better strategy for the godfather is to play a normal mafia strategy (which sure as hell isn't anything that will make them as suspicious as I am right now) and hope that the cop checks them out during a time when they're part of a larger theory rather than specifically being a suspect.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Xhin
    Sky's the limit

    I don't know. I understand how you feel that Knux could be Mafia, and I understand how he feels that you could be Mafia. I can't be sure if either of you are Mafia or not, so I'm not going to be taking either of your side's in this argument. If you both feel so strongly convinced that the other is Mafia, then so be it.

    Based off the list you have there, Xhin, one person sticks out the most to me, but I will not name that person at this time.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    `Roxas`

    EDIT: Sorry for the double post.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    `Roxas`

    Helius is an interesting case. He's played roughly the same way I have, so should be as equally suspicious as me, however in his last post, he voted for me. Perhaps everyone's theories about me could apply to him as well, and he's a good choice in terms of my theory.

    You, knuckles, meanwhile, have played a different game. I think at this point it's unlikely that you're a mafia because of the sheer lengths you're going through to get me nominated, something that will make you look VERY suspicious.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Xhin
    Sky's the limit

    Reading back on posts, some seem to be thought out too much in contrast to other posts.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    `Roxas`

    Well... works for me either way. Me and Xhin could both be wrong about each other. But it seems like all the townies ever end up with anyway is suspicion , how people talk, when they are silent, who is dead. ect. And it's never really proof. and seems like the cop never gets to speak up in time.

    So, if Xhin is a townie, I sincerely hope he won't be voted out. But if he is indeed a mafia as I suspect, bag him and gag him.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Knukles2000

    @Xhin. I guess we'll just have to see...

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Knukles2000

    Feral seems to be playing the same game as Helius at first glance, except that he "feels sorry for me being targeted" and is choosing me based on some list he has, whereas helius is more adamant about choosing me because of some "need" of killing people early on.

    You have this same idea about killing people early on, however in your case, you've been posting a lot more frequently and are very adamant about killing me, so this will make you a lot more suspicious later. Helius, however, has only posted twice so far.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Xhin
    Sky's the limit

    Helius is an interesting case.

    I am always an interesting case. ;)

    He's played roughly the same way I have, so should be as equally suspicious as me, however in his last post, he voted for me. Perhaps everyone's theories about me could apply to him as well, and he's a good choice in terms of my theory.

    In your theory, you're also a good choice if I am modelling you. But the only way anyone knows if A) they are a cop or B) they are mafia. I can assure you... I'm a busy townie.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Helius

    The only absolute truths are through death, probability, and identifying who has done what (such as non-talkers, no voters, and who voted for who). These are usually things that can be proven. Everything else is just shit talk that can't be proven. Coincidentally identifying those who's theories can't be proven is an okay theory. A non-absolute truth would be saying someone is suspicious because of the way they talk, not unless they are out of character as per their regular behaviour outside of this game as expected of them when they are being a paranoid schizophrenic while playing this game and right now, everyone is a paranoid schizophrenic until proven otherwise, especially Knuckles.

    So far, no one here has given reason to be considered suspicious so it's safest to identify which theories can or cannot be proven and vote them to be killed. Here we will train ourselves not to be wrong and so far, #85 is at the top of the list which is why I voted for him first. My CtR Black vote was just a potshot because he was the newbie, which is okay too because he made a mistake with his theory as well.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    LLight

    Llight. You forgot one crucial detail. Special Townie sided roles.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Knukles2000

    Now let's look at #85.

    He's the first to target people during the second round, and he targets both Llight and white lancer. He then suspects CtRblack, chiefsonny, and Blackyoshi. white lancer also makes a list of people that are suspicious, however his wording is very different. He says things like "I'm not saying we should immediately lynch one of these people", whereas #85 says in no uncertain terms that his people are suspicious. He then votes for me. At this point in time his vote is the third vote for me. If he was a mafia this would indeed be the ideal time to vote for the main suspect. And curiously, after #85 votes for me (goes along with the consensus), he doesn't reconsider his vote at all.

    He does speak up a bit once he gets targeted. Unless you have some ulterior motive, it's better to change your vote to No Vote when you're targeted as it makes you appear less suspicious, unless you have some kind of prevailing theory. He's "open" to voting for someone else, but he still votes for me.

    Why is he voting for me though? He's voting to go along with the consensus. He had a strategy in the previous round, but I wasn't on that list. There's something very strange about his reasons for voting for me, moreso than anyone else who has.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Xhin
    Sky's the limit

    #85 seems very suspicious, granted. But at this point, I doubt we could sway a majority from No vote, and Xhin.

    In which case, I propose we go in this order:

    Xhin, #85, Helius, and Shadowwalked, unless something comes up. Trial and error thing for half of those though.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Knukles2000

    If you read this post at all, you would see that special townie roles were taken into consideration from the start, so no, it is not a crucial detail missed, but they're not as special as you think. They are chess pieces that will reveal things when they die. The only really useful role is the doctor since they're the only role that can prevent deaths. Vigilante on the other hand fits my roulette and probability theory. Probability is probably more complicated from when I was giving simple statistics though, so they're only useful for rolling dice.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    LLight

    Well, regardless of who we vote for at this point in the game is a trial and error vote, Knux.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    `Roxas`

    You guys can kill me if you want, but I'm a much bigger asset to you alive, even if I am a mafioso. The reason for this is that I'll be gathering a lot of information that you can examine (like strategies that people seem to be playing), so it might help out you guys's search even if my theories are completely wrong.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Xhin
    Sky's the limit

    I know someone's going to claim "he's a mafioso because he said he might be one!" to which I'd reply that I'd have to be really stupid to make that kind of statement if I was an actual mafioso.

    Last game, if you noticed, not a single actual mafioso tried to suspect themself like I'm doing here; nor did they do any highly risky strategy like mine that would get them targeted. Since there were only four of them, they were very cautious and tried to act like normal players.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Xhin
    Sky's the limit

    I know, Roxas. But it's a mere proposal.

    IF you are a Mafia, I still don't see how you would be an asset to us. As the info you have is merely meant to mislead, and turn us against each other for your own benefit.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Knukles2000

    That's true, however I haven't suggested voting for anyone I'm naming just yet. I still think the best strategy is to wait for the cop to come forward before making any drastic decisions, in case we accidentally get rid of the cop or doctor or vigilante.

    My information would be useful because of how I'm putting pieces together so you guys don't have to comb over every post. You're free to make your own decisions about who to vote for, if anyone.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Xhin
    Sky's the limit

    Maybe you guys missed where I explained why I voted for Xhin. It wasn't a bandwagon vote, I feel I justified it. Xhin just seems to be playing a different style than the last 2 games. And now that myself and him are on the chopping block, he seems to be trying to go back to his strategizing roots which I think only adds to the suspicion.

    I mean this is all speculation, nothing is solid of course. And if Xhin is a townie, I still have certaint suspicions, but would most likely support a no vote (unless circumstances change)

    I was most suspicious of LLight, and I had to completely re evaluate my gameplan now that we know he is a townie.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    #85

    Bleh, you seem to be just throwing words around to distract and confuse the point. If you are mafia, you wouldn't truly be trying to help us plain and simple.

    But anyway, are you trying to indirectly imply you are a special role?

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Knukles2000

    Xhin just seems to be playing a different style than the last 2 games.

    Well, I'd been racking my brains trying to figure out how to get the mafia to reveal themselves without killing off innocent townies. What I finally decided on was offering myself up as the proverbial lamb due to completely changing my strategy and going inactive (which also agreed with my actual laziness!). I don't think anyone who's voted for you is a mafia, because it's a much better strategy for the mafia to go after the guy who looks the most suspicious, which I intentionally did and in fact are still doing to some extent.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Xhin
    Sky's the limit

    On the positive side, at least people are thinking for themselves instead of bandwagoning like last game, that's going to make it harder for mafia to blend in.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    #85

    On an unrelated note, BCB and Black Yoshi both haven't replied this round. It's now pretty late into the round. One of them is going to be silenced obviously. The other has been holding out all round for some reason. I think we should look at both of them.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Xhin
    Sky's the limit

    In the first round BCB claims no vote and then says he'll be gone friday through sunday night. He hasn't responded since then, however it's now *monday* so that doesn't explain why he hasn't spoken up all day. I think it's worth waiting the full 72 hours just to see if he responds.

    Black Yoshi, meanwhile, hasn't spoken at all. Which is pretty strange. Everyone else has said at least something. I don't think the mafia would silence someone who wasn't speakings, so Black Yoshi must be holding back for different reasons. Perhaps he has a special role and he's trying to stay under the radar.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Xhin
    Sky's the limit

    Xhindings, you're only useful until I break the game, but for now, if you're that confident that your death will prove something, then vote for yourself to assure your own death. If you're doing it because you don't want to be in the game anymore, then that's fine too. It will make a roulette vote more probable to succeed in our favour.

    I was most suspicious of LLight, and I had to completely re evaluate my gameplan now that we know he is a townie.

    You are convinced that I am a townie, you won't actually know that until I die. Case in point, as someone who claims to be a townie or any other role should be prepared to die to prove it. Arguably if I was for sure a townie, me dying will only benefit the team if you went with my roulette. It's not a bad idea, you only think that it's a bad idea because it didn't work out for you in the first game. You either win or lose, this is best because you can't really believe anything anyone says here to be true.

    Your assumptions about me are sound since you come from Spirituality. That's a place where I don't post regularly in nor debate because the subjects don't interest me, so it's only fair to assume that I'm shady because we've never done battle.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    LLight

    Haha, an interesting strategy for sure, Xhin. The twist is that we have to take all of your arguments with a grain of salt, since you could be playing the way you are simply so that you can make those arguments. For now, I'm not convinced that you're Mafia, but I'm sure you're aware that your strategy, whether you're Mafia or Townie, is going to keep you on all of our radars.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    white lancer

    If my assumptions are sound why are you targeting me?

    And if you weren't a townie, and you are mafia, that means the mafia gambled to take their own out first on a small hope that the doctor would protect them, and that is too hard for me to believe.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    #85

    Do you not see my vote on your name this round? People are idiots who say I make sense, but then don't go with my plans. Mafia interference or undecided people? Sown seeds of doubt can't be forgotten.

    And yeah, it's possible and a viable strategy. I'm only saying that to convey the idea that anything anyone says here can and should be considered bullshit. Maybe it's a shot in the foot, but it's a step closer to deciding which ideas we can consider the truth. If it's possible for something to be true, then it can and will be. The only way to prove it is by the means outlined above. I'm also okay if you think you're sure that I'm a townie. If that'll make you trust me more, then great, vote for my plan.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    LLight

    I meant why ARE you targeting me, and Id greatly consider going for your plan if it wasn't take me out.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    #85

    Why is Shadowwalked not being brought up in conversation when, other than remarks on accusations that the hospital visit was a possible cover up for his lack of responding? Just curious.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    `Roxas`

    Because shadowwalked isn't inactive this round nor did he target me.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    Xhin
    Sky's the limit

    I guess you're right.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    `Roxas`

    People are putting much more thought into this than when I play on a yearly bus ride...

    Xhin is seeming quite erratic, swinging between "kill me because I'm the obvious choice" and "keep me alive because I'm gathering data". I also noticed that he excluded me from the list of people that voted for him in Reply #722427. It was likely purely accidental, but also could've been because he checked me last night and saw that I'm town-aligned. However, that doesn't really make sense either, as he'd be wanting me to not vote for him, as he hasn't presented his evidence yet.

    Anyway. I'm going to keep my vote at Xhin for now. I haven't seen any possibilities that seem more likely, and firmly believe that another round of "No Vote" is a really poor idea.

    Guh. My usual first-round strategy is simply "Kill Killian", but that's not viable here.

    March 19, 2012
    Edit
    hezekiah

    the people who are getting the least suspicion are the ones who havent said very much. But they also stand out more.

    Why are we saying they're suspicious and not voting for them? why are we voting for Xhin when he's began speaking?

    I find it noteable that knuckles is going through great lengths to argue a Xhin vote, when there is very little evidence. Then he off-handedly tells us to vote for him because his role will be revealed when he's dead.

    I'm merely saying this because noone suspects him. I dont know if his amount of speaking would be a good strategy for a mafia, but he is going a long way at Xhin with little evidence other than lack of speaking.

    March 19, 2012
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    CtR Black

    I meant why ARE you targeting me, and Id greatly consider going for your plan if it wasn't take me out.

    Because you're the first to hit the pattern of being wrong when slinging suspicion accusations when I just proved that accusing someone because of the way they type is a wrong observation. It was the first logical choice, Shadowwalked would be next on the list, but his character outside of the game is inherently shady, which would make a lot more sense to me in relation to his character inside of this game.

    March 19, 2012
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    LLight

    LLight, if you are going to target a person who voices their opinion, you are going to make people withhold their thoughts and not want to talk and we aren't going to get anywhere. What's the case in round one is not the case in round 2, as some things have come up.

    March 19, 2012
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    #85

    The idea is that if your opinion can be proven wrong, then don't post it and die. If your opinion makes sense, then you won't be a target. Savvy? I'm okay if my theories can be proven wrong. I'll die for them if need be.

    March 19, 2012
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    LLight

    Yeah idk I just like playing openly because if people see what I'm doing and I'm consistent then maybe they can start to trust me.

    March 19, 2012
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    #85

    Well that's pretty dumb, if I was consistent, then I'd have to break this game too, get everyone mad and cause Xhin another burnout. I feel my reasoning is pretty consistent though. I'm not sure how I could get away from them if I was mafia.

    If you're a townie and you die and we end up winning, you still get points. 1 point extra isn't much of a deal, so if you've got any other bright ideas, then be sure to get them out before you die. A round should be played as a review of the round where you were active before it.

    It's nothing personal, I'm just trying to be objective here. If you can prove my reasoning wrong, then I'd be willing to get voted to get killed, but most of you are already convinced that I'm a townie, so since you are sure that I am, it would not be a good idea to waste the vote on me, savvy? It just makes sense. A mafia or vigilante kill on me would be pointless because all my ideas are already out in the open. I've given you guys the tools to win.

    March 19, 2012
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    LLight

    Will respond to this tomorrow, when my head isn't spinning and I can comprehend what I am reading. In the meantime, I am rescinding my vote for the moment. I need to think it through again.

    March 19, 2012
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    Feral

    Sorry, been real busy. My plans changed a bit IRL and wasn't able to be around til now.

    I just skimmed the replies since I felt quite overwhelmed when I read that there were 169 replies. Just making a post now to let everyone know I'm a townie and I'm not silenced. I'll look over all the replies a little later and reply accordingly.

    March 20, 2012
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    BCB

    You gotta be prepared to die for that statement, BCB. Theories, we need theories. If you break even an inch from the truth... well, you better hope I'm no vigilante.

    March 20, 2012
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    LLight

    Black Yoshi hasn't replied at all.

    @Xhin: That's because I've been out of town touring, and have only sparsely been able to get wifi; I've stayed at three different host homes, and while two of them have had wifi, both were secure connections. Our tour bus actually has wifi, but my laptop battery is shit and I'd only be on here for less than an hour at best before it died. I probably won't be able to donate much attention to this game until Thursday night, when I'm home from tour.

    That said, I've tried to get on when I can, but there's just no way I can read through two hundred replies in this battery's short lifespan. Rest assured, though, I haven't any special role, unless a townie is a special role...

    March 20, 2012
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    Black Yoshi

    The silencer is silly :)

    EDIT: Also I still think no-vote is the best choice right now. No one was killed, meaning the mafia still has only a 3/11 chance of killing a town-sided power role in the night round. If we lynch a wrong person, not only is there a chance that the person lynched was a power role, but there's then a 30% chance that the mafia will kill a power role in the night round. The longer the cop is alive, the better. The hardest part of being a cop is figuring out the best time to reveal your information; if you reveal too early you'll most likely be killed and won't be around for the endgame, but if you wait too long you could die before you reveal anything.

    A town-sided role is going to die at night (assuming the doctor doesn't protect them) regardless of our vote. If we lynch someone, there's about a 73% chance that we'll lynch a town-sided role on accident. If we lynch a town-sided role, it's about a 27% chance that they'll be a power role. From that point, there's a 30% chance that a power role will be killed by the mafia at night. It is a much safer strategy at this point to no-vote.

    If anything, this is part of the game where you'll typically see the mafia wanting to try to lynch people in the main thread. As long as the cop is still alive, they'll be pretty nervous when the day rounds come up. The more kills they can get in, the better for them.

    I'm not saying we should no-vote every day until the cop reveals who they are and what they know, but as I said, right now no-vote is much safer in every way.

    March 20, 2012
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    MajorasMask9

    Where do the votes stand as of this morning?

    March 20, 2012
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    `Roxas`

    Right now the votes are:

    5 - No-vote (Roxas, CtR, Shadowwalked, Majora, Xhin)
    4 - Xhin (Knuckles, #85, hezekiah, Helius)
    2 - #85 (LLight, white lancer)
    4 - Undecided (Feral, Black Yoshi, BCB, chiefsonny)

    March 20, 2012
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    MajorasMask9

    "What I finally decided on was offering myself up as the proverbial lamb due to completely changing my strategy and going inactive (which also agreed with my actual laziness!)"

    Don't know if Xhin was serious about this or not.
    But if that's what he wants then I will vote for him. If he's serious then he can vote for himself and break the tie.

    I don't believe in the no vote and voting for anyone else at this point in the round is a wasted vote.

    If Black Yoshi is having trouble getting on the site, then why didn't he vote while he was here?

    It looks like no one was silenced this round.

    March 20, 2012
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    chiefsonny
     

    I don't believe in the no vote and voting for anyone else at this point in the round is a wasted vote.
    If we take a stab in the dark, there is a very high probability that a townie will be lynched in the day round, and a 100% chance that a townie will be killed in the night round, assuming we don't get lucky with a doctor protect. If we had lynched someone in the last day round, we'd most likely be one townie short this round.

    The doctor protect actually working in the last round was fantastic. It essentially gives the cop a better chance at not being found out immediately. Because we no-voted that round, the game is essentially at the same exact place as it was when we started, except now we know that:

    1)LLight is a townie.
    2)The cop has an innocent or guilty verdict on one person.
    3)More conversations have come up which can lead to finding out who could be mafia later on.

    If we lynch somebody, and they turn out to be a townie (73% chance, or more considering the mafia is most likely going to subtley try to shift the vote in their favor), then we're basically throwing away this head-start we just got from a lucky doctor protect.

    And, if I'm going to be blatantly open about my thoughts on the game so far, I'm finding Knuckles to be by far the most suspicious person in the game as of now. The fact that he's part of the vote that would be the majority if we don't no-vote is pretty unsettling.

    March 20, 2012
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    MajorasMask9

    The round is just about over. Those undecided need to crap or get off the pot.

    Unless they want time to run out.

    March 20, 2012
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    chiefsonny
     

    We still have about seven and a half hours to decide. Yes, it's not a lot of time, but it is enough.

    March 20, 2012
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    `Roxas`

    And, if I'm going to be blatantly open about my thoughts on the game so far, I'm finding Knuckles to be by far the most suspicious person in the game as of now. The fact that he's part of the vote that would be the majority if we don't no-vote is pretty unsettling.

    Exactly what I want you to think, tbh. Vote me out, and see. And see that Xhin is guilty.

    March 20, 2012
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    Knukles2000

    Five hours, twenty minutes remain.

    March 20, 2012
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    `Roxas`

    MajorasMask9 makes a compelling argument. Keep in mind that a no vote ensures a 100% possibility that a mafioso does not die. It'll still take a few more rounds to vote them out.

    Knuckles is naturally suspicious of everyone and everything though, even outside of the game. You could also out the unstable if that's a viable option for you.

    March 20, 2012
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    LLight

    Llight. I have my reasons for Xhin. They MAY well be revealed after I, or Xhin dies. For now though, you people will just have to go with what makes the most sense to you, I suppose. But I am Townie sided, and have my reasons.

    March 20, 2012
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    Knukles2000

    You realize, if what you say is true, then you have ensured your own death with the above post.

    March 20, 2012
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    LLight

    I realize.

    March 20, 2012
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    Knukles2000

    I also realize I could just be silenced, so. :P

    March 20, 2012
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    Knukles2000

    Alright, close to an hour left.

    After thinking about my options, I have decided to reinstate my vote for Xhin.

    If you are a townie, I do apologize ahead of time.

    March 20, 2012
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    `Roxas`

    Sticking with my vote for Xhin, as a No Vote round does more harm than good.

    March 21, 2012
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    hezekiah

    Continued in [p:61342].

    March 21, 2012
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    Yeano

    Reply to: game 2 day 2 lets see those accusations

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