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Mafia

Moderated by: Speed Bike Pro

game 24 night 4 fair vote

Posted February 1, 2014 by MajorasMask9




"What happened to the rest?"

Tuesday, February 11th
6:25am

Despite the dire situation of everyone on board the train, things were beginning to look up. Half of the killers on board the train were eliminated due to the passenger's daily voting. Three full days had gone by since they boarded the train. It wasn't much longer until the train met its destination.

But regardless of how well off things currently seemed, things were not all good, and the killings continued.

Late in the night, one of the passengers headed off to the Dining Car's bar, sick and frustrated of the rest of the passengers. He was a person of suspicion, people called him a killer even though he was innocent. What was the point in reasoning with these people? He decided to have a nice long drink to himself to make his problems go away.

He walked into the Dining Car. The lights in the Dining Car had stopped working for some time now, making it pitch-dark at night when there was no sunlight coming through the windows. He walked to the back of the Dining Car cautiously...

*step*
    *step*
         *step*

The passenger froze. He had only taken two steps forward... but he heard a third...

He turned around to see a dark silhouette standing at the door leading to the main corridor. It was Speed Bike Pro.

"Oh, gosh dang it, this isn't the laundry room..." He walked away in disappointment.

The passenger turned around and continued making his way to the bar area in the Dining Car. He slowly walked forward to where he knew the bar was, when suddenly he ran into someone... Who was this?

"Oh... so this isn't the laundry room? Too bad, because your clothes are about to be stained... with blood..."

The passenger, chiefsonny the Townie, tried to make a run for the corridor but it was too late. A series of knife stabs found chiefsonny dead on the floor... victim to an unknown assailant.

The rest of the passengers found the body in the morning, and in a manner that had become almost routine to them, had moved on and decided to go straight to the voting.

1. chiefsonny - Townie
2. Redack - Lazy Ninja
3. Count Dooku
4. hezekiah - Lover
5. Shadowwalked
6. Pirate_Ninja
7. Feral
8. Black Yoshi - Mafia Investigator
9. Bubba
10. white lancer - Nurse
11. Jo Nathan
12. Lady Flare
13. The Bandit
14. Castrael
15. Apollo Justice - Lover
16. Speed Bike Pro
17. Hindenburg - Lazy Janitor

Ratio: 2-8
Roles: Lazy Ninja, Ballot Forger
Oracle, Tracker, Bad Break Billy, Townie x5

Round will end in 72 hours or after 7 votes for the same option.

There are 110 Replies

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I probably shouldn't have "followed the leader" here, but I'm getting a vibe that Speed could be our next Mafia. I'll state my reasons when Speed posts something.

February 1, 2014
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Castrael

something

February 1, 2014
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Speed Bike Pro
 

{fp}

February 1, 2014
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Castrael

{fp} isn't a very good reason.

February 1, 2014
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Speed Bike Pro
 

I... don't really understand why they did that. Why kill the townie the Town has expressed interest in killing?

???????????

The only explanation I can honestly think of is that my list yesterday was completely wrong, and the mafia feels confident that we'll pursue it to the end of the game. If we do that and I was wrong, they win. There's no other reason I can see to kill chiefsonny. Even if you think he's some power role, the Tracker probably isn't worth targeting without an Investigator result IMO. Not when the Town is very likely to kill who you think is the Tracker. : /

Any other thoughts? I'm totally lost by this move.

February 1, 2014
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The Bandit

If we do that and I was wrong, they win.

Well, no. We need to mislynch 3 times for them to win. So we can lynch Bubba and PN and still be OK.

I agree that Speed's suspicion has risen a bit after chief's death. The fact that he said "I want to kill chief" during the Night round actually seems like he's setting himself up a bit for a defense. "Why would I say I wanted chief dead if I was going to kill him in the mafia thread?" Well, there's no reason why you wouldn't do that as mafia, so why not? It doesn't hurt a mafia member to say that in anyway.

Does anyone else have any suspicions?

February 1, 2014
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The Bandit

One more post and then I'm done for the night:

Even if you agree with me that Speed is suspicious, I just want to make it clear that I am in no way advocating that we lynch him today. I don't think anyone can adequately argue that he should be killed today. If we do find him somewhat suspicious though, then we should probably not lynch Bubba and should maybe target PN.

Again, open to any other thoughts/interpretations.

February 1, 2014
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The Bandit

The key point on Speed's suspiciousness, would the mafia repeat the same tactic twice in a row? Redack threw Hindenburg under the bus and then Speed did the same with Black Yoshi. Both are similar in how they were both pulled out of thin air, both first being suggested by Speed and Redack and passed off as "gut feelings". I have never thought the lynch-your-own strategy worked very well sense we're all a skeptic bunch, but using it in succession could be a twist on it.

And I'm still not sure if Redack had planned for Hindenburg to die or not. Like mentioned in the last threads, he votes Hindy and five minutes later a flood of votes followed.

February 1, 2014
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Bubba

I have a hunch:

I'm thinking the Mafia targeted cheif, knowing it would put the target clearly on Bubba. Try to get two birds with one stone.

I also have a slight hunch on "who", but am not ready to say.

February 1, 2014
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Feral

I agree with Bubba here. If Yoshi investigated someone and they are trying to get the town to Lynch so they can have another kill. I mean, it's possible

February 1, 2014
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Castrael

Feral, why are you not ready to say? Please share if you have any thoughts on who we should go after!

February 1, 2014
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Jo Nathan

So, we were leaning toward killing chief today as stated in night talk. Then the Mafia go a head and kill chief during the night. How does that make sense? Why would the Mafia do that?

1. They are clearing the way for the Town to move on to the next most suspicious person on the list. (I don't know about you, but I don't like being lead by the nose.)

2. They are still looking for the Tracker and took a chance with chief because he's been so quiet this game.

3. They're messing with us.

Can anyone else think of a motive? It might help point us in the right direction.

February 1, 2014
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Lady Flare

It makes sense to me. Everybody wanted to lynch Yoshi instead of chief and they probably wanted chief death. At least that's my opinion

February 1, 2014
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Castrael

I guess maybe:

4. Bubba and PN are mafia, and they felt killing the third person on my list would make us question the list.

That's somewhat of a risky play, though I think if I was mafia in that scenario it would be something I would want to try. No idea how other players would feel about it though.

We need more input and analysis, especially from PN, Bubba, and Speed. Bubba, you've stated suspicion of Speed, but who do you think might be the other mafia member? PN has said nothing. Speed, you voted for Bubba. Why do you think the mafia chose to kill chief?

February 1, 2014
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The Bandit



seriously though, I've just been pondering our situation since I saw the update. I think it's likely the mafia was trying to hit the Tracker, based on the Oracle and Billy claims and any verdicts the Investigator got on living players before his death. Why else bother to off an innocent man who already had a lynch mob waiting at his door? Unless it was purely for kicks - at which point trying to reason things out is kinda futile - I'm not seeing a reason to separate two innocents that way.

if chief and Bubba are both innocent, the mafia could have easily offed someone considered less suspicious (like Bad Break Billy, a virtually-confirmed innocent) and left us to keep chasing bad leads without it seeming strange in the least. Us mislynching chiefsonny wouldn't give us reason to not lynch Bubba next. But nightkilling one of them spotlights the other and could make us second-guess lynching them under the pretense that the mafia wouldn't put one of their own out there like that. If both of them are Townies, I don't think it'd make that much sense to nightkill one. But since the Ninja power is limited-use, they might be willing to take that risk for the sake of being able to kill without fear of Tracker detection.

still, it turns out chief was only a Townie - the fact that the mafia was willing to gamble on killing one of the town's leading suspects makes me think they may have had more of a stake in it. If even one other innocent were considered as likely as chief to be the Tracker, it seems more sensible to me to kill the other player instead and let the town go after chief today. For the mafia, the worst case then would be that chief was the Tracker and he'd either catch one of them overnight or be able to save himself by roleclaiming - which would probably lead the town toward a lynch of Bubba. Which would only matter to the mafia if he's one of them.


so as far as I've thought it through (please do point out anything that seems wrong), unless the way chiefsonny was playing made the mafia think he was probably the Tracker, Bubba is likely mafia.

February 1, 2014
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Pirate_Ninja

That's a fair analysis, but who do you think the other mafia is?

February 1, 2014
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The Bandit

My suspiciouns are falling into place. The one thing that could put the nail in the coffin is if the Tracker contacted me. I think I know who it is, but I need confirmation, which will prove my theory.

Tracker, just send me a quick PM.

I won't reveal anything until that happens.

February 2, 2014
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Feral

Seriously, what's a brotha gotta do to find the laundry room? I only brought enough clothes for three days.

February 2, 2014
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Speed Bike Pro
 

a bit long, so hold on you guys.

My Reasoning on Speed For Being Mafia

If you suspected Bubba to be a Townie previously night round then why vote for him in the beginning of the round? What makes you think he could be Mafia?


You also suspected chief the same way. During that day round, Yoshi dies instead of chief, but chief dies during the night round instead.

Shadowwalked To Be Mafia

@Yoshi: ...and I might as well admit that I'm the Mafia Investigator since that's pretty much it for me. Quite frankly, I didn't really care for my Mafia team; with Redack gone, all hell's broken loose in the Mafia thread and Shadowwalked is the one who started it. Ever since the Replacement came along Shadow's been trying to get him to go along with his master plan, which both myself and the Replacement thought was complete idiocy...and he even said in our thread that the only reason he claimed Bad Break Billy was that he knew the role was pointless and he wanted to appear innocent.

Thought I share what I found. This was posted after all votes have been cast. That's all I got so far.

February 2, 2014
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Castrael

heh, not that long, but oh well.

February 2, 2014
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Castrael

Also, forgot to do this.

February 2, 2014
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Castrael

Wat.

February 2, 2014
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Speed Bike Pro
 

If you suspected Bubba to be a Townie previously night round then why vote for him in the beginning of the round?


But I... didn't? Allow me to copypaste part of my list from Night 3:

Most suspicious of but am likely wrong because I was actually right about someone for once which means the next 20 people I suspect will be townies:

Bubba
chiefsonny


I think you're misunderstanding what I said, which was mostly for comedic effect at my own expense. I said that I suspect Bubba/chief of being guilty but am likely wrong because I tend to kill 20 townies for each mafia and Black Yoshi died a couple rounds ago. It was a jpke but I was saying that my top two suspects were Bubba and chief. Chief died so I voted for Bubba to start this round.

You also suspected chief the same way. During that day round, Yoshi dies instead of chief, but chief dies during the night round instead.


I think you're... mixing up the order of the rounds entirely. Day 3, I pushed for a Black Yoshi lynch and only after he died and it was the end of Day 3/start of Night 3, I posted my list mentioning chief as a chief suspect.




In regards to what Black Yoshi said, I think that was pretty obviously a ruse that you're biting on. He's trying to make us doubt Shadowwalked's claim or lynch him if the Tracker checks him out and sees that he did indeed visit whoever happens to die, which he does anyways because that's what the Bad Break Billy does. Since it's been a few full rounds since his role claim and not a single other person has said anything about being the BBB then I don't doubt him.

Your only reason for voting for Shadowwalked is copypasta of something Black Yoshi said. Black Yoshi was the Mafia Investigator btw in case that was forgotten.

February 2, 2014
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Speed Bike Pro
 

I think I'm going to take back what I said earlier and cast a vote for Speed. He's not acting very innocent right now. I'll wait for more input before doing it, though.

Day 1

Jumped on a Castrael bandwagon for really no reason at all.

Day 2

Said he felt confident in a few suspects, but would hold off on revealing who they were or why he felt that way. He said this with only 24 hours left in the round when there were like no votes for anyone (meaning it was a crucial point in the round if we wanted to kill, and holding back on your ideas makes no sense) When asked to offer his opinion, he only said he was busy and never actually contributed anything to the round.

Day 3

Admittedly "gave us" Black Yoshi. However, he gave no reasoning for voting for Yoshi, and was only continuing on his blood lust that he had started on Day 1. He really didn't do anything to bring about that lynch other than vote for Yoshi first, and, for me at least, it was much more the way Yoshi was acting after the votes started accumulating against him that made vote for him. This gut feeling approach very much contradicts his usual play style, where even when he is basing his logic on just a gut feeling, he's happy to make long posts quoting the lines that made him think the person is suspicious.

Day 4

Despite the fact that we got probably the weirdest night kill that we could have gotten, Speed shows no shock or surprise at all by these events and just continues on with voting for Bubba like there doesn't need to be any discussion about the night kill. Chief's death obviously throws my list right into the garbage can, and rather than pointing out that fact and trying to gain some fresh ideas, he keeps going with the old plan like it's the best move to make. Again, this isn't like him at all, and I think he's a good enough player to know that you can't just hold onto your early assumptions for the entire game, especially when very damning evidence has been thrown right into your face.

The weirdest thing to me about his play this game is that whenever asked for direct input he totally ignores the question. While, yes, what he said back in Day2 could very well be true and he could just be busy. But, obviously he's had time to make a post in the last few hours, and rather than using that spare time he has to focus on the most important issue at hand (why did the mafia kill chief) he uses it to defend himself from a very weak accusation. That's fucking weird to me.

February 2, 2014
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The Bandit

@Castrael:

I'm going to quote my exact response to Black Yoshi, followed by his response to that:

I think it should be fairly obvious that given the ratio will soon be 2-9 and that the nurse is dead, trying to ruin the game by revealing an ally wouldn't make much sense since the mafia still have a fair chance if they play well.

Furthermore, the fact that no one has counter-claimed Bad Break Billy, which I claimed very early on, speaks more to my innocence. If I was an imposter, the 'real' Bad Break Billy could speak up and effectively lead to only a single mafia left.

However, that won't happen, since it'd basically be another mafia outing himself and leading to their eventual lynch.


-Me

Well, I tried...best to just say good game everyone and take my leave...


-Black Yoshi


As far as the direction I think we should take for this round, I'm going to respond more in depth when I can but I'm having a bowl of cereal right now.

February 2, 2014
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Shadowwalked

Bubba, you've stated suspicion of Speed, but who do you think might be the other mafia member?

Like I said in my previous post, I'm still concerned about the players who voted Hindenburg. Dooku, Castrael, yourself even. Those votes came in fast. I see a legit chance of a mafia member being among those. But I don't see someone from that group being mafia and Speed as well. Two separate mafia members throwing team mates under the bus is too far outside the realm. At this point I'm leaning Speed a bit more.

Why kill Chief? Likely to cause confusion, and to keep the players with suspicion on their shoulders nipping at the heels of each other. I know Chief (along with myself) was mentioned in the previous round as being a top suspect, but I never got the feeling that he would be a prime target going into the next round. Probably because I believe there are other players with an actual reason to be suspected (As mentioned above). As Bandit mentioned, Chief was once again the product of thin air.

February 2, 2014
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Bubba

Sheesh... I GUESS I'll address your points...

Jumped on a Castrael bandwagon for really no reason at all.


A reason was provided. Just because you might not agree with it doesn't mean that there wasn't one at all. I voted for her because of the things she was saying which, even now, sounded really... weird.

You seem very... jittery, I think is the word I'm looking for. Not only that, but you immediately jump into bed with anyone who disagrees with you. First it was Moonray, and now you're snuggling up to Apollo.

-Me Bike Pro, Day 1


---

Said he felt confident in a few suspects, but would hold off on revealing who they were or why he felt that way ... When asked to offer his opinion, he only said he was busy.


Shucks, this is awfully embarrassing... Context is key. My exact post:

Lade Flare, huh? Is that some kind of nickname those within the mafia inner circle have for her?

Holding my vote for now but I feel awfully confident about a few leads.........


Even though this post has been brought up a few times by now in regards to having suspicions but not voicing them, I never said anything because this post was a joke. I said I had a few leads because of the preceding "Lade Flare" thing.

Regarding your other point about me being busy, I made a post that only said "sorry, I've been busy" immediately after Jo Nathan saying that there would probably be one or two "sorry, I've been busy" posts. Again, jokey jokey fun time. There was no substance to these posts but you are trying to treat them like incriminating evidence.

---

This gut feeling approach very much contradicts his usual play style, where even when he is basing his logic on just a gut feeling, he's happy to make long posts quoting the lines that made him think the person is suspicious.


Admittedly, it's been a few games since I've made a vintage Speed Bike Pro long post. I was halfway planning on scrounging up actual stuff to back up my reason for voting for Black Yoshi even though I felt like my gut feeling was enough but felt that it wasn't necessary when, to my surprise, other people started voting for him as well.

---

Despite the fact that we got probably the weirdest night kill that we could have gotten, Speed shows no shock or surprise at all by these events and just continues on with voting for Bubba like there doesn't need to be any discussion about the night kill.


I will gladly post more about the chiefsonny situation once I understand just why the mafia chose to target him. I have not said anything about it because I'm just as confused as everyone else. So in that sense, it was a pretty brilliant night kill, no? But something like showing surprise or shock, I'm not the kind of person to say "OMG why chief??? he was so young... (cry)" after a night kill. It's mysterious but not shocking.

especially when very damning evidence has been thrown right into your face


What evidence are we dealing with here? chief died and no one knows why. That isn't very much to work with. But I will say that since chief was killed and was a Townie, I have broadened my suspicions a bit beyond Bubba.

February 2, 2014
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Speed Bike Pro
 

@Speed: I have broadened my suspicions a bit beyond Bubba.

I still don't see why Bubba should by lynched.

February 2, 2014
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Castrael

The "joke" stuff is fine, and I apologize for missing the context. I don't understand why you didn't just answer those concerns way back in Day 2 though.

So in that sense, it was a pretty brilliant night kill, no? But something like showing surprise or shock, I'm not the kind of person to say "OMG why chief??? he was so young... " after a night kill. It's mysterious but not shocking.

That is totally fair, but running into the thread and voting for Bubba when chief's death should make you reconsider that move makes zero sense. I guess it's just you being a hilarious kidder again.

And I disagree completely, it's a very shocking kill.

That isn't very much to work with. But I will say that since chief was killed and was a Townie, I have broadened my suspicions a bit beyond Bubba.

You broadened your suspicions, but are totally willing to make him your first vote within like an hour of the round starting.

Black Yoshi even though I felt like my gut feeling was enough but felt that it wasn't necessary when, to my surprise, other people started voting for him as well.

You felt like your own gut feeling was enough to convince other people that he was guilty? Or you didn't care whether other people would vote for him? This makes no sense either.

February 2, 2014
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The Bandit

You felt like your own gut feeling was enough to convince other people that he was guilty?


Not necessarily. I just put my vote out there based on my gut feeling and would have gladly provided some evidence afterwards had other people not started to vote for him. Once the majority quickly swung towards him, anything beyond my gut feeling wasn't necessary since he was, in all likelihood, already dead.

You broadened your suspicions, but are totally willing to make him your first vote within like an hour of the round starting.


Ye. Think of my vote as more of a placeholder at the moment because I will almost certainly change it before the end of the round. I'd just like to hear from Jo Nathan and Lady Flare more first.

February 2, 2014
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Speed Bike Pro
 

Day three
Me: Why is your vote for Yoshi?

Speed: I don't have any hard evidence so I'm sorry to disappoint, it's just the general vibe I've gotten from the things he has said, the way he has conducted himself, and the way he has interacted with others. I could research his previous game to get a better read on his usual behavior but even without having done that, he is sorta the person that I have an insatiable bloodlust for this game, as I am wont to do with at least one person per game.

Night Round:

Speed: I want to kill chiefsonny next. Chief dies next round.

Feral: I guess now is as good a time as any to spring this.

I am the Oracle.

Shadow: Bad Break Billy

I'll put more thought into this later. Or, if anyone has any suggestions.

February 2, 2014
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Castrael

I don't understand the point of what you're trying to say when you just copypaste a bunch of stuff from previous rounds, though. Yes, I did say those things and push for chief to die Day 4 and he ended up getting night killed. If anything, this does the town a favor because I don't waste a round chasing after chief.

As far as Feral/Shadowwalked go, I'm not questioning either of their claims but I am interested to hear if the Tracker made any sort of contact. At this point in the game, results could either be very beneficial to a lucky innocent person or very deadly to a mafia son of a gun.

February 2, 2014
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Speed Bike Pro
 

Also I just now realized that my chief suspect pun was already used in the title of this very thread. Sorry, Majora, all credit goes to you, please no sue. (:$)

February 2, 2014
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Speed Bike Pro
 

Also: For Bubba

I'm feeling uncomfortable about voting for Hindenburg. He hasn't given us much to go on and I've only played against him twice. Once in the Christmas game when he was obviously Mafia and again in Game 23 when he was killed early on. All I can say is I just don't FEEL he is Mafia. Granted I've been wrong before.

I'll take my vote off Feral to increase the margin between votes.

by: Lady Flare

February 2, 2014
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Castrael

Speed: hear if the Tracker made any sort of contact.
^ yeah, why hasn't the Tracker said anything yet?

February 2, 2014
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Castrael

Shadowwalked To Be Mafia

Shadowwalked To Flop in Field

February 2, 2014
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Shadowwalked

I'm still concerned about the players who voted Hindenburg. Dooku, Castrael, yourself even. Those votes came in fast. I see a legit chance of a mafia member being among those.

Yeah makes sense... could definitely be a Mafia member in there... definitely... like... I dunno...

Redack?

February 2, 2014
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Count Dooku

I really do wish I knew why the Mafia targeted chief. It might have given us insight into their plans. Unfortunely, all we seem to do is speculate.

Cas: I agree with Speed regarding the Black Yoshi outting Shadowwalked thing. It was a weak and last ditch ploy to misdirect us. And I'm confused why you are bringing up a quote from me. Yes I didn't vote for Hindenburg and as it turned out he was Mafia. Do you think because of this, I'm Mafia? I keep telling people I don't like being pushed into bandwagons. I usually have to have a reason to vote for someone and stick with it. I took my vote off Feral because as I said earlier it was only a guess and I wanted to increase the vote margin. Anyone can post quotes from previous rounds but you have to say why you think they are relevent. Right now it looks like you are grasping at straws.

In the ealier rounds, I was suspicious of Speed. But he's becoming more like his-town-self (espeically since Apollo is gone.)

Just because the Mafia killed chief doesn't mean that Bubba should be taken off the suspicious list. But they knew that chief and Bubba were Speed's top suspects and the Town followed Speed's lead last round. Maybe they were hoping we would follow him again this round. I don't know.

I'm always suspicious of Pirate_Ninja. I think it's because I have trouble reading him.

I don't want to vote for Dooku or Shadowwalked at this time because Black Yoshi tried to lay suspicion on them.

Luckily we aren't in a mislynch and lose scenario. We do have some leeway. And we have to come to some sort of consenus because the Ballot Forger is still out there.

February 2, 2014
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Lady Flare

Gah, sorry! Busy day.

I did hear from the Tracker, who was able to give proof of their identity, but they didn't mention their results. Actually not a bad idea to share them with me or Shadow privatly, so we can throw it out publicly. Me, Shadow, and the Tracker are the only Townies who should be moving at night. The Tracker knows all three of those identies, so they just need to point out any other living player whom they saw move in the game.

Oh, and my theory was wrong.

February 2, 2014
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Feral

I'm 99% sure Yoshi was lying about Shadow. If he wasn't, then my "tracker" is fake, and he and Shadow are the last two Mafia. As all we would need to prove that is for the real Billy to come forward, and the game would be over, a highly doubt that is the case.

February 2, 2014
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Feral

It's just really weird, Speed, because I think the obvious conclusion based on the chief kill was to try and push us to Bubba, and then you come in and vote for Bubba without offering any commentary on your decision.

We're getting closer to the 24 hour mark, so I'm going to go ahead and cast a vote.

Killing PN accomplishes a few things:

1. If the mafia are intentionally trying to push us to Bubba, we are avoiding that.

2. If the mafia are Bubba and PN (or PN and someone else) and are trying to make us think they're doing #1, we're obviously still getting a lynch.

3. If Speed is mafia (though I was obviously wrong about his jokes, I'm not 100% convinced of his innocence) we're not voting for the person he's voted for.

4. If PN is innocent, then we can probably step back and say Bubba is innocent as well. This would narrow the field down by 2 instead of just 1 if we only lynched Bubba.

If PN is innocent, we have two more chances to find a mafia member. I would then suggest that we look at Lady Flare in the coming round. She's the only other one I can imagine being mafia.

On the other hand, if PN is guilty, we can lynch pretty much everyone whom we might think is guilty and still win the game fairly easily.

February 2, 2014
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The Bandit

2. If the mafia are Bubba and PN (or PN and someone else) and are trying to make us think they're doing #1, we're obviously still getting a lynch.

This was pretty poorly written. I was referencing this statement I made earlier:

Bubba and PN are mafia, and they felt killing the third person on my list would make us question the list.

If that's what the mafia are doing and are trying to get us to step back and ignore my list, then we're not ignoring the list.

February 2, 2014
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The Bandit

Damnit, I hope my gut/partial theory is right.

All I know is that killing PN is a big mistake.

February 2, 2014
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Feral

Sigh...

February 3, 2014
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The Bandit

Going with this then I guess.

February 3, 2014
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The Bandit

That, I can do.

Still watching you closely, though.

February 3, 2014
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Feral

That's a fair analysis, but who do you think the other mafia is?
sorry I'm so late in reponding - sort of a long day. At this point, I'd call it a toss-up between Lady Flare and Count Dooku. Not so much because I find them suspicious as because others have struck me as less suspicious.


4. If PN is innocent, then we can probably step back and say Bubba is innocent as well. This would narrow the field down by 2 instead of just 1 if we only lynched Bubba.
I...am not sure how that follows unless you and Bubba are mafia and it's just kind of a shady connect-the-dots job to indirectly "prove" him innocent :J


ain't a mafia bone in my body yo~

February 3, 2014
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Pirate_Ninja

Going with this then I guess.

--The Bandit--

Would you like to give a reason or two? I know this game we've been going off of gut feelings but I like facts.

I voted for Black Yoshi because it would narrow down who I thought was Mafia. Black Yoshi was trying to incriminate Cas, Dooku, and Shadowwalked. So because he was Mafia, I'm guessing they're innocent.

Speed was after Black Yoshi since Day 2. So again another reason why I think he is innocent. (Unless the Mafia are trying to throw everyone under the bus.)

Feral has claimed Oracle. No one has counter claimed. Being Oracle is probably anti-Mafia repellent so if someone else was Oracle, they could come forward. And Feral is vouching for PN at this time.

So who's left? Me, The Bandit, Jo Nathan, and Bubba. And now The Bandit is voting for me just because.

February 3, 2014
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Lady Flare

If you're innocent and Bubba is guilty, then the mafia line of killing chief just makes no sense. If chief dies, and we follow the list I made and that Speed somewhat supported, then Bubba would be the next obvious target. Why risk us just shrugging our shoulders and moving on down the list to the person who is actually guilty? The only way I can see the mafia taking that kind of risk is if you were both mafia.

If you are innocent, then it would only follow that Bubba is also innocent and they wanted us to just shrug our shoulders and continue on with the list. That is not 100% true, obviously. They could have me right where they want me. But who we kill is just as important as when we kill them, because lynching an innocent will affect the kinds of risks we're willing to take in the next round. So, if we killed you and you turned out to be innocent, I would not feel comfortable lynching Bubba the next Day because, like I said, I think it would be too great a risk for them if we just pretended chief wasn't night killed and lynched Bubba.

So, I guess it's not necessarily "If PN is innocent, Bubba is innocent" but more of "if PN is innocent, I feel like it's too great of a risk to lynch Bubba, because I don't see the mafia acting that way just to try and save one of their members."

We can definitely lynch Bubba today, though I would rather go with Lady Flare. I just wouldn't want him lynched following an innocent lynch on you.

Does that make sense?

February 3, 2014
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The Bandit

@Flare, like PN said it's more of an elimination of other players.

I know I'm a Townie.

Shadow and Feral have claimed roles that no one else has claimed.

PN is obviously the Tracker based on Feral's comments.

Cas, Jo Nathan and Dooku do not strike me as guilty (in that order).


That leaves Bubba, you, and Speed. Because I don't feel comfortable putting Speed in with the Castrael group, I also don't feel comfortable following his Bubba vote. So that makes me vote for you.

February 3, 2014
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The Bandit

Yeah, after thinking it through, i really do think Speed is just a townie. I'm just reading into it too much! Sorry Speed!

I really don't know who to vote for. I don't think bubba is Mafia. I'm not getting that vibe. I don't think Dooku is Mafia because he's always inactive as a Townie. I just wanted him dead because well you know. :P

I'm starting to think that Speed could just be Townie and he was only trying to helpmthe town with Apollo gone. But, what was weird was, he didn't leave his usual good bye post to Apollo. Unless, I didn't read it and skipped through

PN: is not mafia.
Lady Flare: suspicion.
Shadow: BBB. i just don't know. i'll post more later. eating dinner atm

February 3, 2014
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Castrael

For me, it's between Bandit, Bubba, and Flare. Can't really explain it, but somthing about Bandit is just screaming guilty. I'm leaning more toward Bubba then Flare. Regardless how much he claims he finds Bubba suspicious, Bandit has never actually voted for him.

February 3, 2014
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Feral

The reason I'm not voting for Bubba is somewhat complex. I play a lot of poker and my logic for my actions right now are really similar to a poker game. In poker, like mafia, you have limited information. You're very rarely going to have the right answer 100% of the time. Because of this, often you make moves early that simplify your choices later on. You'll do something to make your opponent react in a predictable way so you can then react in a predictable way. It suddenly isn't about whether or not your choice is right or wrong, but whether your choice is right or wrong under those specific circumstances. This leads to less guessing and stable, long term profits. So right now, instead of thinking about this in "Who do I find most guilty right at this second" I'm trying to think of how to play the game in the future rounds.

Yes, because of the chief vote, I fully believe that Bubba is going to be guilty more often in this specific scenario than Flare (though not always; I think Bubba's guilt is pretty much 50/50), but the order in which I kill them matters to me because voting for Flare now is easier than voting for her tomorrow.

Suppose we do lynch Bubba and he's innocent. I can say, "hey let's kill Flare" but that has no more real meaning that suggesting we vote for any of the other players at this point. I mean, we can all make lists of who is most supsicious, but right now, in this game, we really don't know who is guilty. No one is really sticking out. Even Bubba hasn't stuck out IMO. He's there from elimination of other players and because of the chief kill. If we polled everyone, the suspected pool of players on Day 5 that we might vote off could be me, Speed, Flare, Jo Nathan, Dooku, and Castrael. A lot of you say you think I'm suspicious. So, you vote me off tomorrow. Then, suddenly, on Day6 we're in mislynch or lose.

If we lynch Flare today and she's innocent, our choice of players tomorrow is a hell of a lot smaller. It's Bubba. If we lynch someone other than Bubba today and we're wrong, we have to lynch Bubba tomorrow. Anything else is too risky. And, even if Bubba winds up being innocent, that is still the right play to make and I won't be sad about it at all.

February 3, 2014
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The Bandit

tl;dr I'm trying to make the game less stressful for me and not get into situations where i might second guess myself

February 3, 2014
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The Bandit

You're very rarely going to have the right answer 100% of the time.

Ugh. I can't write tonight. That sentence is really retarded. I think I wanted to say you can't know something with 100% certainty, but decided to word it differently and still stuck "100%" inf or some reason. Whatever, you know what I mean.

February 3, 2014
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The Bandit

Since we're all posting lists, reasons already laid out in previous posts

Speed
The Bandit
Dooku

Still not sure why I'm the prop in your plan, since we've already established that there is no reasoning for my suspicion other than the weird Chief kill.

February 3, 2014
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Bubba

Bubba gives me bad vibes just from the way he's trying to cast suspicion.

Like I said in my previous post, I'm still concerned about the players who voted Hindenburg. Dooku, Castrael, yourself even. Those votes came in fast. I see a legit chance of a mafia member being among those. But I don't see someone from that group being mafia and Speed as well. Two separate mafia members throwing team mates under the bus is too far outside the realm.

Players who voted Hindenburg:

chiefsonny Townie / Dead
Redack Lazy Ninja / Dead
Dooku
Bandit
Castrael
Apollo Lover / Dead

This line in particular concerns me:

Those votes came in fast. I see a legit chance of a mafia member being among those.

A mafia member was among those that voted for Hindenburg. It was Redack. I think its a stretch to claim that the Mafia felt the need to stack the vote on day 2.

Aiming for the few people who helped to lynch the first Mafia of the game seems backwards. But if keeping the attention on them keeps the attention away from the guilty party...

February 3, 2014
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Count Dooku

At the risk of looking like an opportunist- I actually have been suspicious of Bubba as well. As I mentioned in Day 3:

In response to your suggestion, Bubba - I could see it going either way. Maybe the Mafia all decided to pitch in and get rid of a member they didn't want... or maybe you're taking advantage of an opportunity to use reasonable-sounding logic to LEAD US ALL ASTRAY.


I mean, I really could see Bubba being innocent or guilty, but I am leaning a bit more toward guilty. Things may get tricky with the votes, especially since we have a ballot forger to worry about, but I'll cast my vote anyway. We have a bunch of hours left in the round and hopefully someone will make sure we don't have a tied vote in the end.

February 3, 2014
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Jo Nathan

Just a reminder that the round ends in less than 12 hours :).

February 3, 2014
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MajorasMask9

Only makes sence to change my vote at this point.

February 3, 2014
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Feral

A mafia member was among those that voted for Hindenburg. It was Redack. I think its a stretch to claim that the Mafia felt the need to stack the vote on day 2.

I don't think it's a stretch when all of those votes came in a 5 minute span after Redack voted. I definitely think there is a good chance a second mafia is among that group.

February 3, 2014
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Bubba

Hmmm... You know what, I must say I am less than certain.

There almost certainly is some fantastic performance going on, and I can't tell if it's Bubba, Dooku or both.

Will try to review stuff more carefully and re-vote when I get home from work.

February 3, 2014
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Jo Nathan

You guys... bubba is not mafia. I just know he isn't. I am not highly suspicious of him. Mafia is trying to make you believe that he's more suspicious like Apollo did with Speed that one game.

February 3, 2014
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Castrael

When she was Mafia, that is.

Also.

Time to die.

February 3, 2014
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Castrael

Again, if it'll clear the town's collective consciousness, go ahead and lynch me.

But if you do, please turn around and lynch Bubba when I come up innocent.

February 3, 2014
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Count Dooku

Although with respect to Castrael's vote:

I don't think Dooku is Mafia because he's always inactive as a Townie. I just wanted him dead because well you know. :P

February 3, 2014
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Count Dooku

eh, my mistake for voting. that was a joke this round. I honestly dunno who to vote for so i'm not votin. I just know bubba isn't mafia

February 3, 2014
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Castrael

Round ends in a little less than 9 hours. At around the 3-4 hour mark if nothing in the votes change, I will switch my vote to Bubba to prevent any Ballot Forger shenanigans. If more support for Flare shows up, I will not switch.

February 3, 2014
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The Bandit



February 3, 2014
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Lady Flare

In theory, someone who's voting for Bubba could have their ballot forged to be voting for Lady Flare, which would make it a tie right now. Maybe the odds of that are slim, but just to be safe:

February 3, 2014
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Jo Nathan

Two more votes to end the round then.

February 3, 2014
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Count Dooku



February 3, 2014
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Castrael

You guys... bubba is not mafia. I just know he isn't.


?

February 3, 2014
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Speed Bike Pro
 

fair enough

February 3, 2014
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The Bandit

That'll teach you, Bubba. No one tries to cast suspicion on me but me.

February 3, 2014
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Count Dooku

I'm not mafia, but I doubt I'm coming back from this deficit in this short of time. At least we will still have a good ratio after this mislynch.

?

I told Castrael to go ahead and vote for me. Her not voting for me would just put her in danger later on. Just trust her more later in the game.

February 3, 2014
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Bubba

Well, we know PN will die tonight.

Cas is making no sense with her jumping around, but that is typical.

Since his death is forgone(the round is done), I see no reason to believe he is lying at this point. I'm going to go with the asumption that Bubba is innocent for now.

I'm honestly wondering a bit about Jo. He has been unusually quiet for himself all game. He is usually much involved in the discussion.

February 4, 2014
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Feral

Doesn't mean much and is probably obvious but my final 4 are Bandit/Lady Flare/Jo Nathan/Dooku. Two are mafia and two shall die.

February 4, 2014
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Speed Bike Pro
 

Round ends in 9 minutes.

February 4, 2014
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MajorasMask9

You should go after them in that order, too. Here's to hoping we'll have killed the last two before you get to me. (suprised)

February 4, 2014
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Jo Nathan

Night 4

Tuesday, February 11th
7:05pm

In what felt like a routine procedure, the passengers gathered into the Dining Car. They talked events out and tried to deduce who was a killer and who was not. With only two remaining, and them having a perfect record for voting for the actual murderers, spirits were understandably higher than they were the first day. Egos became over inflated as the passengers became more and more sure of themselves.

Today, the passengers were dead set on voting for Bubba. Bubba caught wind of this and started to panic. He had to think of something... what could he do to get out of this and live on?

The votes were in. The passengers cautiously began to unfold the slips of paper with votes on them.

Lady Flare

Speed Bike Pro

Pirate_Ninja

Count Dooku

Shadowwalked

...

Something was clearly amiss. "I voted for Bubba!" one passenger shouted, as well as many others. The jig was up, he had forged one too many ballots to where it became overly obvious who really had the majority vote, and who was to be killed. It was Bubba, the Ballot Forger.

Bubba was grabbed and brought back to one of the empty cabins, where he was executed.

One final killer remained. The passengers, not exactly relieved, but aware of the fact. The entire train ride had clearly taken its toll on them, in more ways than one. The day went on and night returned once more...

Ratio: 1-8
Roles: Lazy Ninja
Oracle, Tracker, Bad Break Billy, Townie x5

Round will end in 24 hours or after all night actions are in.

Disclaimer: The story and false votes have no game relevance, I just picked them at random :).

February 4, 2014
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MajorasMask9

Well, now that we've seen the outcome of that... I don't know about you guys, but I think I know who needs to be tossed overboard in Day 5.

February 4, 2014
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Jo Nathan

okay nvm

February 4, 2014
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Speed Bike Pro
 

Oh, here's the player list btw:

1. chiefsonny - Townie
2. Redack - Lazy Ninja
3. Count Dooku
4. hezekiah - Lover
5. Shadowwalked
6. Pirate_Ninja
7. Feral
8. Black Yoshi - Mafia Investigator
9. Bubba - Ballot Forger
10. white lancer - Nurse
11. Jo Nathan
12. Lady Flare
13. The Bandit
14. Castrael
15. Apollo Justice - Lover
16. Speed Bike Pro
17. Hindenburg - Lazy Janitor

February 4, 2014
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MajorasMask9

I'm not mafia. (no)

February 4, 2014
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The Bandit

Your time has come, Bandit.

Town is near guarenteed to win anyway, with one Mafia and two 100% innosents going into the next day.

PN, I strongly suggest reveilng your tracker results TONIGHT, informative or not. Maybe we can dig somthing out.

February 4, 2014
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Feral

Gosh, Feral, I'm excited to kill mafia too but you're getting a little ahead of yourself here... There is no voting during the night round...

February 4, 2014
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Speed Bike Pro
 

Guys please don't vote at night it messes up the tallies :(. Not that it's that important or anything at this point.

February 4, 2014
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MajorasMask9

Day 5- PN/Bandit (6-1)
Day 6- Shadow/Flare (4-1)
Day 7- Feral/Jo Nathan (2-1)
Day 8- Dooku or Speed or Castrael

I have thoughts but I don't want to say them.

February 4, 2014
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The Bandit

I have thoughts too and I have to say them because I'm surprised nobody has mentioned this yet- Doesn't anyone else think Castrael's defending of Bubba was awfully reminiscent of when she was defending weid man?

You guys... bubba is not mafia. I just know he isn't. I am not highly suspicious of him. Mafia is trying to make you believe that he's more suspicious like Apollo did with Speed that one game.

eh, my mistake for voting. that was a joke this round. I honestly dunno who to vote for so i'm not votin. I just know bubba isn't mafia


She only votes for him when it's pretty clear he's going to die anyway, and she does so with no comment.

Also, for some reason, I just feel like choosing Redack to use the Replacement's power on is something Cas would do.

February 4, 2014
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Jo Nathan

Those are awfully good points and they shall be strongly considered when I very delicately and artfully place my vote next round.

February 4, 2014
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Speed Bike Pro
 

shit, I thought I cast a vote when I gave my reasoning for lynching Bubba today. Sorry for dragging the round out unnecessarily!


...and non-informative Tracker results, you say? That's a thing I can do <y3


Night 0 - Apollo Justice visited hezekiah

Night 1 - hezekiah visited Apollo Justice

Night 2 - chiefsonny visited no one

Night 3 - Bubba visited no one

February 4, 2014
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Pirate_Ninja

mm, hopefully that all was good enough~ c:

it's risky (suicidal, in fact!), but if the mafia follows through we should be able to pick up both Oracle and Tracker results - possibly enough to seal the deal. So, as for tonight's prophecy...

now I lay me down to sleep
I pray the Lord my soul to keep
if I shall die before I wake
let's learn if Castrael's a fake



February 4, 2014
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Pirate_Ninja

Hi guys...

I just want to say that I'm just a Townie. I believed bubba was a townie via Skype; since OOG is allowed and I should say this now before any attempts are made. He posted a screenshot of his role, and edited it and he convinced me that he was Townie, I trusted him and wanted to believe him so i waited to see what his role truly was.

I feel completely embarrassed by this. Kill me or not, it's up to you.

February 4, 2014
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Castrael

Would just like to remind everyone that taking screenshots (real or otherwise) of roles and/or role threads, as well as copying information from role threads and claiming it as authentic is against the rules. I'll discuss this in a little more detail after the game is finished :).

February 4, 2014
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MajorasMask9

Who initiated the contact and when did it start, Castrael?

February 4, 2014
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Speed Bike Pro
 

He contacted me first since I hardly talk to him privately. I'd show you proof but I can't find it. It was a long discussion. I have yesterdays discussion, but not our first convo. It's not showing up for some reason.

February 4, 2014
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Castrael

Now this actually sounds familiar too... It wouldn't be the first time a Mafia member pulled the wool over her eyes...

I can believe your story, Cas.

February 4, 2014
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Jo Nathan

Before Day 5 starts, I'd like to add that Jo is my primary candidate for being the last mafia.

February 4, 2014
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Speed Bike Pro
 

Why

February 4, 2014
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Jo Nathan

Night 0

Bandit, I know where you're coming from. I was a townie three times in a row. Of course, my role this time is a secret to everyone!

-Jo Nathan


At this point in the game, the only role claim was Bandit picking up Townie which Jo was obviously alluding to.

I'd just like to mention that I think the idea for the Replacement is quite clever.

-Jo Nathan


This isn't actually any kind of evidence, just something worth pointing out. It wouldn't be the first time someone has made a casual remark about their role early in the game. Not saying that's 100% the case here but it did catch my eye while I was looking through previous rounds.

Day 1

Nothing really seems to stand out to me, though... except I guess I'd be a bit inclined to vote for The Bandit for revenge because of his immediate Townie claim, but then again I'd be jaded too if I had gotten Townie all four goddamn times..... (duck) So I can let that go, I suppose.

-Jo Nathan


Keep in mind that at this point, the only role claim was still Bandit's Townie.

This is the main course. The entree after enjoying my delicious hand-tossed house salad, if you will. The implication of this post from Jo seems to be that he did not get Townie for a 4th straight time. And at such an early stage of the game, he could afford to say that because there was enough of a variety of power roles alive that it didn't really matter. He could've been the Bad Break Billy or the Oracle, just as examples. However, later that very round, we got Shadowwalked's Bad Break Billy claim (which still hasn't been contested). The Nurse and the Lovers are deceased (God bless their souls), Feral claimed Oracle, PN is apparently the Tracker, and all of the original mafia have died. That just leaves one Replacement.

Of course, I could very well just be reading too much into nothing and Jo could be a Townie, but this seems to strike me as some kind of slip-up.

Well there's no guarantee that the Replacement would cooperate. That player could end up replacing a Mafia member.

-Jo Nathan


Again, not evidence but interesting that he made another remark about the Replacement.

Day 2

I have been getting some kind of vibe from Apollo. Kill me if I'm wrong.

Jo Nathan Voted for Apollo Justice


This struck me as odd when it first happened because he did something very similar back in whichever game it was where I was the Lawyer and Jo was the last-second vote that ended up being my demise. However, he did almost the exact same thing the next game when he was town-based so I paid it no mind in this game. But in this case, if he is the Replacement, he would have been impervious to death until Day 3. If we did act on his vote for Apollo then he could very well have been killed the next day but at least for the time being on Day 2, he was safe in case the finger got pointed around at him.

In days 3 and 4 (aka after the Replacement replaced), his activity has tailed off somewhat and his votes have only come after several people had already pitched in towards someone.

Day 3

Yeah, the Replacement may have done a disservice to the Mafia by outing Redack. I guess we'll find out in subsequent rounds, won't we?

-Jo Nathan


Night 4

Also, for some reason, I just feel like choosing Redack to use the Replacement's power on is something Cas would do.

-Jo Nathan


Just a couple more Replacement mentions. I don't count the most recent one as very significant since the only task left for the town is to root out the (artist formerly known as the) Replacement so it's inevitable that we'll talk about it.

So yeah, those are my thoughts. sup guys? LOL

February 4, 2014
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Speed Bike Pro
 

Also, from Apollo's list of thoughts from Day 2:

Jo Nathan - I don't think he would be coming after me at all unless he truly believed I were Mafia, which probably makes him more likely town-sided (or Replacement).


It was in the cards all along, folks.

February 4, 2014
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Speed Bike Pro
 

LOL, wow, I really did ramble a lot about the Replacement, didn't I? Well now I feel silly.

Of course, if I really were the Replacement, if you truly think I have the capacity to be that foolish, rattling off about Replacement this and Replacement that... well, that's just plain insulting. (cry)

Also, my quips to Bandit were an attempt to trick the Mafia into thinking I was a power role pretending to be a Townie in the hopes that they would waste a kill on me instead of an actual power role. This would have also had the bonus of me not being alive near the end of the game, going through the trouble of defending myself. Funny how things work out. (duck)

February 4, 2014
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Jo Nathan

Either Majora has gone inactive or the last Mafia is blatantly holding up the day round.

February 4, 2014
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Feral

In all fairness, the last mafia has nothing to lose by letting the night round take the full 24 hours. I don't think it's anything from Majora's end.

February 5, 2014
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Speed Bike Pro
 

When does night round end?

February 5, 2014
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Castrael

24 hours after Night 4 was posted, so 11:20 pm EST.

February 5, 2014
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Speed Bike Pro
 

Ah, okay. Thanks.

February 5, 2014
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Castrael

Little less then an hour left.

So, how about we all share who our single top suspect is.

For me, it's easily Bandit. I know I was going on an unconsious observation of somthing sketchy, and Bubba's death only makes him look worse.

February 5, 2014
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Feral

Why does Bubba's death make me look guilty?

February 5, 2014
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The Bandit

Reply to: game 24 night 4 fair vote

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