Mafia

You guys suck. This is the second game in a row where I died first :/

Next game, regardless of my role, I'm going to vote to kill Knuckles.

I sure hope someone dies soon. It's getting lonely here :/

Curses, this is the first time I've died before the very end of the game! Knew I should have gone with my gut and not with CtR's...

Of course, I can't say my gut was spot-on, because I was also near-convinced that #85 was Mafia. Whoops.

Maybe your gut was telling you that recruiting #85 was a bad idea -- it would have been, as he'd have been recruited and then killed by the mafia.

Haha, maybe so. I wouldn't have even hesitated about recruiting Majora except for that line of reasoning--should have gone for it anyway instead of trying to recruit the more suspicious Teddy.

If #85 wasn't Mafia, is Knukles the other Mafia member? Apparently they really wanted #85 out of there--since he was silenced first and then killed--but that seems an incredibly unsubtle risk considering the fact that #85 couldn't have known anything that first round even if he were the Cop.

He was the doctor? Damn that's a stroke of good luck for the cult!

Also the mafia might be wiped out soon if this keeps up since the other Mason member knows the identity of whoever white lancer targeted, and knuckles is probably a mafia too if that guy was different since #85 died soon after targeting knuckles exclusively.

Oh, man, haha. Highly unfortunate for the town, that. Were you the original Cultist, Xhin?

Knukles/Teddy-Son is an, um, interesting Mafia team. Knukles was my second suspicion after #85, so we probably could have gotten him this round. Wouldn't have known Teddy as easily, though.

Yeah, I was. Not telling you who I recruited though ;)

What, don't trust me? :P

Knukles should be done for after that last post. He just claimed that he "checked" more people than he possibly could have so far in the game (Poptart, Teddy-Son, Zanic). Plus the other Mason knows that Teddy is guilty. I expect Majora will pick up on that and call him out.

Xhin, you are a poor sport if you vote for me next round regardless of Role. I knew you were Cult by the way you were talking.

But yes, I planned on the possibility to die. My plans always get screwed up somewhere, and that was a BIG mistake for me claiming to be cop. It just happened much sooner than I expected. I was hoping to make it into the Cult, but first silence someone from the town, kill the Mason, and force a majority vote. And win from the Cult.

But seriously, You should let it go, Xhin. I was just doing my duty as Mafia.

Welcome to the dead club, Knukles. XD

The interesting thing about the game now is that the last (first) Mason probably needs to recruit someone rather than kill a Cultist. He knows that Teddy is the other Mafia member so he's not going to die because of that, but if Teddy kills him tonight and he doesn't manage to recruit anyone, the Town will lose unless they form a pact with Teddy to get rid of the Cult.

That's my only objection to the Cult. I think it's an interesting twist to the game, but the problem is that their success/failure depends entirely on the Mason/Mafia. If both of those are taken out, the Cult's win is inevitable because they recruit new members as quickly as they can be voted out. If the Mafia is taken out but the Masons are not, they're probably (though I guess not entirely) screwed.

Was there any particular reason why I was targeted? It looks like the town's got it wrapped up regardless, so I'm not really upset about it. Just curious if there was a reason, or just trying to pick somebody that you thought wouldn't be targeted by another group.

Teddy just got confused, Hez. There was no reason.

I thought CtR was dead for sure because of his accusations of Teddy.

The Cult could still win the game. Majora should never have admitted to being the second Mason because now there's no shot of the Cult attempting to recruit a Mason. Unless of course he's lying in an attempt to throw the Cult off, which seems unlikely since CtR didn't react.

So we're pretty sure there are only the two masons right now? CtR and Majora?

Assuming that's the case, the breakdown (Cult-Town-Mason) is 3-3-2. Tonight, each will try to recruit. Cult will pick one of 3 townies, knowing that an attempt at CtR or Majora means death. Therefore, the Masons will have a 4/6 chance of killing a Cultist (3 current, 1 newly recruited). This is where it branches.

1) No deaths. Breakdown for day 5 is 4-1-3. Town needs to No Kill, as Cult wouldn't vote for one of its own. Danger comes from the regular townie being convinced to go along with the Cult. CtR or Majora (more later) needs to explain this to the remaining townie as soon as Day 5 starts. In fact, CtR or Majora should call for an immediate end to Day 5, to prevent the townie from inadvertently admitting their (lack of) role If a kill is made, it will be of a townie, meaning Cultists win.
Why's it gotta be CtR or Majora? To make it a toss-up. If no kill in Day 5, Cult has a 50/50 chance of recruiting the remaining townie, and a 50/50 chance of recruiting the person the Masons recruited the previous night. Ir they recruit the townie, they win (5-0-3, becoming 4-0-3 after Mason's choice). If they recruit the new Mason, the breakdown is then 3-1-3, becoming either 2-1-3 or 3-0-4 after Mason choice. Either way, Masons can wrap it up, either through choosing to No Kill in the day and killing one per night, or by getting the Townie (if 2-1-3) to side with them.

2) Cultist dies. Day 5 has 3-2-2 breakdown of roles. Assuming no kill during Day 5, Night 5 will see the breakdown become 3-1-2 (Cult targets townie, Mason targets Cult) or 4-0-3 (Cult targets townie, Mason targets other townie). If 3-1-2, Cult wins by No Kill in Day 6 (recruit last known townie Night 6, gives 4-0-2 becoming 3-0-2 advantage). If 4-0-3, Cult wins.
Therefore, the town needs to make a kill on Day 5. It'll become either 3-2-1 (Mason killed, oops!, Cult will win either 4-0-2 or 3-1-1), 3-1-2 (Townie killed, Cult wins 4-0-2) or 2-2-2 (Cultist killed, will become 3-0-3 meaning Mason win or 2-1-2 (townie can side with Masons to win it for the town, or Mason Kills at night to finish it).


However, it's seeming like there are actually 3 Masons?

Now, if there are 3 masons: 3-2-3 currently. Night round will become 4-0-4 (two remaining townies recruited), 3-1-3 (Cult recruits townie, Mason kills cult), 2-1-4 (Cult targets the third current Mason, Mason takes townie), 2-2-3 (Cult targets third Mason, Mason targets that cultist) or 1-2-3 (Cult targets third Mason, Masons target different cultist).

In all cases, the Town should win:
4-0-4 is trivial, No Kill in day and 1 Cultist dies, leading to 3-0-4 and easy majority.
3-1-3. Mason shows townie the logic, no kill is made. Night round ends at worst 3-0-3 (Cult recruits the townie), finishes similar to 4-0-4 case. Killing cultist would work as well, but requires townie to make the right "blind" choice. No kill is the safer choice
2-1-4 is trivial, Masons can kill anybody of their choosing.
2-2-3. Similar to 3-1-3 case. No kill made, becomes 3-0-4 or better. See above.
1-2-3. No Kill guarantees it trivially.

We are 100% certain that there are only two Masons. CtR recruited me on the first night, I attempted to recruit Teddy on the second night and died for it, and CtR recruited Majora last night.

And that's a good breakdown of how the game will go. It's probably safe to say that in the second scenario (with the town choosing to lynch someone), no one will vote to lynch the Masons CtR or Majora because they're pretty well known to be safe. That gives the Town a 3/5 chance to lynch a Cultist during the day.

It looks like Majora realized his mistake and edited his claim of Mason out. He'd have to be very lucky not to have had any of the three Cultists see that.

So to sum it up, given that it is known that there are 2 Masons (pending the death of Teddy, order is Cult-Town-Mason):

3-3-2 end of day 4.

Case 1 (highly unlikely): Cult recruits Majora. Ratio becomes 2-3-2 or better, town wins by No Killing during all day rounds. Unlikely because Majora admitted being mason, later edited post.

Case 2 (2/6 probability): Two separate townies recruited. Ratio becomes 4-1-3. Town no-kills Day 5. Cult wins by picking remaining townie (4-0-3 after Mason kill), or loses by picking Mason (3-1-3, 2-1-3 or 3-0-4). Overall chance of Cult winning so far is 1/6, Town is 1/6, 4/6 is discussed below.

Case 3 (highly unlikely): Cult targets mason. Unlikely because Majora gave it away before editing post. Ratio becomes 2-3-2 (Mason targets same cultist), 1-3-2 (Mason targets different cultist) or 2-2-3 (Mason targets townie). Town wins in all cases, but won't explain due to unlikeliness.

Case 4 (4/6 probability): Cult recruits townie, Mason kills cultist. Ratio becomes 3-2-2. Town must Kill, as a NK leads to 3-1-2 or 4-0-3 after Night 5 which Cult wins easily (by picking the last townie, or simply having a majority).
In Day 5, Cult would want to sway the vote toward a townie, as the town should know that CtR and Majora are both masons (meaning they wouldn't vote for them). So ultimately it'll come down to the guess of CtR and Majora for who is in the Cult; a random choice gives them a 3/5 probability of killing a cultist, which results in a town win (2-2-2 ratio calls for No Kills during day, Masons win it during night rounds). However, the other 2/5 results in Cult win (3-1-2), as the night round would result in a 3-0-2 ratio (Cult recruits townie, Masons kill a cultist).


So in summary: odds of town win are 2/61 * 1/22 + 4/63 * 3/54 = 1/6 + 2/5 = 17/30 probability of town win
1: Probability of no kill in Night 5
2: Probability of Cult picking Mason in Night 6
3: Probability of Cultist kill in Night 5
4: Probability of Cultist death in Day 6

17/30...such a close game. I hope they realize that they need to vote someone out next round if they kill a Cultist during the night. Too bad about Majora's revealing that he's a Mason; the Town's chances would be much higher in that situation. I think in this case I'd attempt to recruit Roxas, because he seems a little shifty. Then again I thought #85 was very shifty and I was completely wrong about that. XD

Or just go after POP and hope that the douche is just inactive because he's a normal townie. Given his lack of playing, I don't think he should be allowed in the next game.

Yeah...he participated in the first game he played with us, but he really hasn't done anything in this game.

You know...another flaw with the Cult is that there's no real incentive for the last Townies to want the Cult to lose. They're probably not thinking like this, but one of them could just vote with the Cultists in exchange for being recruited during the night, so that they are sure to win the game. If no Cultists die tonight and they're left with the 50-50 chance to recruit correctly and win, the last Townie wins the game no matter what. I think the Cult was interesting for one game but it's a little weird and I don't know that I'd want to play with it again.

Sweet. The Cult Leader thing does seem like it would make them more balanced, but even so I'll look forward to playing another game without them. It was weird playing the first round knowing that the strategies I was advocating would come back to bite me if I got recruited by the Cult.

I'd miss the Cult and Masons though. They add a crazy twist to the game. I think there should of been one more Mafia member though who should be a thug... and maybe keep the vigilante. That should greatly help even the odds for everyone.

But the Cult/Mason leader thing seems too... unfair to them. He could easily be killed instantly, and they would lose every game POSSIBLY.

I think the Cult/Mason leader thing is better than the current setup. As it is set up right now, if both the Masons and Mafia were dead, the Townies could literally know every single Cult member and still not be able to win because the Cult would recruit as fast as they died.

Well, I could very well be wrong, and it could work out well, but I just don't see it.

Well who ya gonna call now?

And I am still not the mafia Yeano is lying all over the rug 0_0

Really I get on, there are a handful of dead people and no one will talk to me seriously?

This makes me a little upset. I die and now there is no one to talk to cause they all want to go to Pointy and fight. {:/}

So Roxas is definitely a Cultist. I'm guessing CtR and Majora recruited poptart, then, while the Cultists recruited someone else?

If that's the case, then the Cult won the game when they decided not to lynch. Even if the Masons kill a Cultist tonight, they'll wind up with 3-3, and one of those 3 is a Townie that the Cult can recruit, and they know that Majora and CtR are the Masons.

So Roxas is claiming Cop now...

So right now we're at 3-1-2, which heavily indicates a Cult win, given Majora's temporary admission to being Cult. The night will end up 3-0-2 (Cult takes townie, Masons kills cultist), 2-1-2 (Cult takes mason, Masons take that cultist), 1-1-2 (Cult takes mason, Masons take different cultist) or 2-0-3 (Cult takes mason, Masons take townie).

It would appear that the strategy Roxas (a Cultist) is using is to make the Masons think that he's the last remaining townie, baiting them into targeting him tonight. Why he's doing this I haven't quite wrapped my head around, but it won't make much of a difference. This is the Cult's game to lose.

Roxas WAS a cop. He got converted by Mr. Gin.

Yeah, for ONE NIGHT. Was he even able to see the result of his investigation, Yeano?

Oh, and Roxas basically gave himself away with that post, since he claimed Cop while not voicing any suspicion at all two rounds ago when Knukles claimed Cop. The Townies (unless everyone who voted besides CtR is a Cultist) were just too rushed to vote no kill that they didn't think about it.

You guys can think what you want but I'm not gonna sequel. Now that I am a ghost I can tell ya guys I know stuff and the town is going down.

Teddy, wake up. I've been saying that for a while now (see reply 1334434108).

I am just too lazy to look at all of the huge stuff you guys are talking about. This is not the main thread anymore we can't decide who is going to die cause we are dead so why do we have to talk about what is going to happen?

On another note hezekiah, I killed you off without thinking. No hard feelings right?

Yeah, we're fine.

Mostly I spent all that time with the possibilities basically armchair quarterbacking. While looking at stuff just now, I realized that 4/7 people voted for No Kill, which doesn't reach the historical 60% threshold for early round end. I then IMed Yeano, not realizing the note in the Day 5 Thread's OP saying it'd only take 4/7.

Oh well.

It wasn't a total waste, I got some very interesting info out of him about the game. I'll be relaying that into here, just as soon as I get it all understood myself.

We don't have to talk about what's going to happen. Of course, if we just wanted to have a random conversation we could, but we could just as easily do so in Pointless so here seems as good a place as any to post about the game.

After all, we need to prove that we would have done much better if we were still in the game. XD

I wouldn't have. White Lancer knows for sure in JS that all I do is ask questions, get upset easily, and never know what I am doing all though he is nice to me he knows I am not very good in games.

Edit: At least in games that confuse the hell outta me 0_0

Alright, so Majora isn't Mason. He's Townie, but was acting Mason in order to not become Cult (at the time, he thought the cult would lose, and didn't want to be on the losing team). Zanic is the other current mason, so the breakdown is:
2. Shadowwalked Cult
4. `Roxas` Cult
7. Zanic Mason
10. CtR Black Mason
11. MajorasMask9 Town
12. LLight Town
13. chiefsonny Cult

Obviously the Cult thinks Majora is mason (and knows CtR is), so they're deciding between LLight and Zanic for their recruitment target. If the Cult chooses LLight, the night will end 4-0-3; Yeano told me that the Masons chose to target Majora. That means the Cult wins.

If the Cult decides to go with Zanic, however, the Town will win. As I just said, the Masons are taking Majora. This means the night would end 2-1-3. The Masons could either cause a kill with some cooperation from another person (making it either 1-1-3 or 2-0-3, both impossible situations for the mafia) or simply let it tick over to Night 6. Either way, a Town win is guaranteed.

This means we're at the endgame. Whatever choice the Cult makes will end the game. As of now, the Cult's thinking is that the Masons are playing mind games; they think the obvious Mason choice would've been to make LLight be Mason (he's been very statistically minded and would be a useful asset for the Masons). But because of their "mind games" theory, they think the Masons would realize this and instead target Zanic for Masonic induction. This is making the Cult lean towards LLight, which would result in their victory. The Cult is waiting on Chief to weigh in with his thoughts, so they may change their mind and hand the game to the town. We'll find out tomorrow.

And of course, none of that information can be shared with any of the remaining players. Doing so would severely hinder your chances of getting to participate in future playings of Mafia.

I barley pay attention to what you just said I am kinda tired at the moment. But I'd never do that even if I did see that. I would rather give this game another chance and see if the nasty fighting continues or not.

Wow, good on CtR for not reacting when Majora said he was the Mason. I thought it was weird that Majora would slip up so badly, but I wasn't sure CtR would catch on to him doing that so smoothly without the ability to communicate out of game.

But WHY THE HECK DID THEY TARGET MAJORA? Seriously, LLight should have been their pick. That way the Cult either picks Zanic (and dies because of it) or LLight. If they pick LLight, he dies, but the Cult would probably go for Zanic the next round and die while the Masons picked up Majora. Recruiting Majora makes no sense to me.

Lancer: How the hell do you know all of this? You are dead like the rest of us and the day hasn't even came on yet?

Haha, I'm just working it out logically based on the information we have. If CtR and Zanic are the Masons, then picking Majora to join them is easily the worst decision because he's the least likely to be targeted by the Cult.

I misspoke earlier when I said that LLight should have been their pick--obviously they don't know that LLight is still a regular Townie. But they didn't need to pick a regular Townie--all they needed to do was kill any one of the Cultists, including the one that was being made that night, and their chances would go up. The Cult would be screwed if they chose Zanic, as they would lose two of their members, and if they picked LLight and converted him they would still be at 3-3 and probably pick Zanic the next round.

Bah. Even if they thought that Majora was lying, going after him still wouldn't be any better than going after anyone else. Roxas practically gave himself away in that last post, and at this point they know there are only two townies (one of which will be converted) so going after anyone else would give them a 3/4th chance of being right. Which obviously isn't 100%, but they wouldn't be able to be 100% certain about Majora being Cult either, and going after anyone else means a 100% chance if it turns out Majora WASN'T trying to trick them.

Is it all right for Yeano to be telling us to be going on?