Mafia

Odd... this can only mean that the Mafia knew Xhin was Cult. Whoever we are dealing with must be pretty perceptive...

So, have the cops seen anyone?

No we have no idea who killed him.

He was apart of some cult so cult so he could have done this to himself.

I guess we will find out soon though other wise more might be killed.

Who are you?

Do you really want to know?

Yes I really want to know who are you? Who, who, who, who?

Yes I am being silly. This a combo of CSI: Miami and the Who song. Never watched the show I just know the joke.

Or the Mafia members were just lucky enough to pick off the Cultist. Unfortunately, it didn't make a difference as Xhin picked a protege.

We're back at square one, it seems. What now? It's unlikely the Cop knows very much after one night. I mean, he could only pick one out of fourteen guys (since he knew nothing of the recruitment batches, who the Mafia chose to kill and who the Doctor saved), and the only role that could be determined from that is the Silencer (which was at a .5% chance of happening when he chose to investigate somebody) unless he could find out who the Cult is.

I'll be more than happy to wait and see what other people think of what has happened overnight.

Why does everyone always pick on Xhin? Haha!

Well, Xhin might have been recruited by the original cult member and then killed, but it doesn't matter which one. At least there's one less cult member than there would have been.

The sooner we exterminate the Cult, the better. I still think it is urgent for the Mafia, without revealing themselves, to team up to take the Cult out of the equation, ASAP.

I still have nothing to go on at the moment. I might vote this time. However, I'll just sit back and see how people talk and see how I feel. Right now I am tired and I don't even know how voting works anyway.

Do you say "I think blabber is cult/Mafia/Mason" or "I vote Blabber"?

The former is pretty much when you are accusing somebody of being something; the latter is when you are voting. Ex: "I think ____ is the ____." "____ is the ____." "I vote for _____." And so forth.

Either way, it seems we can almost safely say there are now two masons, 1 cult, 2 mafia, and 9 other townie sided roles. Obviously the Cult is our biggest threat despite numbers. And to prevent them from recruiting another, we would do well to kill him this day round.

Also I think it makes it a lot easier on Yeano if we bold our votes :).

As long as Yeano isn't lying about the ratio the cult never converted any of the mafia, and they didn't convert the mason. The mason didn't convert anyone that was mafia, and they didn't convert the cultist. This means that only town-sided roles were converted.

So right now, if we assume the mason recruited someone, there are 2 masons, 1 cultist, 2 mafiosos, and 8 town-sided roles. It's possible that the cult and masons converted the cop and doctor, which would be bad. It's also possible that they converted two vanilla townies, which would be pretty alright, despite the fact that there's a cultist.

Question for Yeano: What kind of result would the cop get if they investigate a cultist?

Odd... this can only mean that the Mafia knew Xhin was Cult. Whoever we are dealing with must be pretty perceptive...

They had a 1/14 7% chance of killing the cultist and this does not indicate that anyone knew anyone's role unless they were communicating out of game.

So, have the cops seen anyone?

It's not wise for a cop to reveal his role. It's not wise for any role to reveal their role, otherwise they will surely be targets for murder. The cop on the other hand is only good when he dies and if he leaves sufficient clues based on the people he voted for, since we will only know for sure that they are the cop once they have died.

Every round we don't lynch a cult member, they gain +1 player if we don't lynch them or if they don't target a mafioso. They have night round priority over all other night actioned roles.

If we roll for a vote this round:

There is a 3/13 23% (+2%) chance that we lynch a cultist or mafioso

There is a 10/13 77% chance that we lynch a townie

There is a (4/10)/13 3% chance that we lynch a special role townie

If you choose to roll, here is the chart calculated by 100/[total number of players] which is 7.7, rounded down to 7.

1-7 is white lancer
8-14 is Shadowwalked
15-21 is #85
22-28 is 'Roxas'
29-35 is poptart!
36-42 is Zanic
43-49 is hezekiah
50-56 is Knukles2000
57-63 is CtR Black
64-70 is MajorasMask9
71-77 is LLight
78-84 is chiefsonny
85-91 is Teddy-Son
92-100 is re-roll

Odds are still in favour of a majority no kill vote, but that means we're sitting ducks hoping for the cult to grow stronger or hoping the cult wipes themselves out with a 2/13 13% of suiciding on a mason (we have 2 masons). There are still 2 mafioso and one cultist left, so our masons have a 1/13 7%% chance of killing a cultist by trying to recruit them and a 2/13 15% chance of obliterating themselves on a mafioso, which is why only one mason should vote in the mason thread.

Edited: Oh one note about this if anyone was wondering how it worked: "100/[total number of players] which is 7.7, rounded down to 7", if the incremental value multiplied by the [total number of players] is greater than 100, then you have to round down and the remainder is left to re-roll.

So the cop can detect the Silencer and the cultist? Or just the Silencer.

Yeah I think the cult is a bigger threat than the mafia right now. The mafia can't replenish their ranks, but the cultists can fuck like rabbits.

Since the last round, the current odds of the mafia winning this game has increase from 53% to 55% according to the equation: m/sqrt(t) where m is mafia and t is the total number of players.

Well, i'm stumped and I agree we need to vote. I WILL roll. But AGAIN, I am not in favor of leaving this up to chance, so it does NOT effect my final vote.

The cop can detect anyone except for the godfather, who will show up as innocent. He can't tell what roles they are and our roles are only revealed when we die, otherwise there is no other way to tell.

Not accusing anyone, but poptart is either really inactive or isn't helping us out at all. He's only posted once. I'm not really suspicious of him, but just pointing it out.

Got a re-roll.

Well, thats a vote for Hez unless I have reason to change.

You probably will -.-

Wut? Look around you, man. Theres constantly new reasons to change votes as people continue to talk.

Haha. I know. Just messing with you because of last time.

All right then, pile on vote in session for me... I vote to kill hezekiah as per Knuckles' RNG roll.

Please note, we won't know if we lose our doctor or cop. The doctor can't protect themselves from being recruited for two reasons, (1) they can only save those who are killed by mafia and (2) cult/mason actions have priority over doctor actions in the night round, so those are resolved first.

I don't think it's possible for the doctor to lose their night action yet because they won't know they've been recruited as a cult or mason until the next day round.

Shadowwalked has been here the whole frickin time pretty though... wonder why he hasn't bothered stating his opinions.

...because it's also very easy to blend in by not being active in the discussion since there is currently no penalty for not replying. i.e. inactivity

I know, but you can't deny that inactivity like that makes us suspicious. I'm just saying it's odd. Not accusing him.

At least Shadow posted a reason why he hasn't spoken up. Poptart just said whaaaaaaat

True. But either way, we're running out of options the more we vote the wrong person, and/or no vote.

Agreed. We should definitely vote someone out this round. We can't let the cult just build up people.

I'm going to vote for poptart! unless he speaks up. He could be silenced though haha.

Hold on, we should think carefully on who to vote, AND vote someone out. If we end up voting out the wrong person, we are doing more harm than good.

It's just temporary. It could change, I just want to see if he's still here.

And to make it much easier on Yeano, we should all post our votes in cyan or some color.

Well the town got really lucky last night. Instead of losing a townie, we lost a cultist.

To take advantage of this luck, I think we should vote no kill.
*if we vote no kill we at *most* lose two members, meaning we will still have at *least* 8 townies.
*if we vote to lynch we could lose three townies, and end up with 7 in total.
*by voting no kill we give the cop another round to investigate
*we give the masons another round to recruit.
*the cult will *at most* gain one new member.
*if we vote no kill our ratio will be at worst 2:8:2
*if we lynch and miss our ratio will be at 2:7:2
*the more townies we have the more rounds there are, and the more time we have to take down the mafia and the cult

so for now, I vote No Kill

I'm not going to roll of chances of rolling myself out and I don't even remember how to roll.

Anyway I'll just pick someone.

I pick Yeano.

Hmmm, CtR has some pretty good points there. Of course, the cop isn't very useful this round as there are no normal mafioso. Bear in mind that the masons might accidentally pick a mafioso and get killed.

just going to vote no kill for now. CtR convinced me.

Haha. Xhin's post at the top ^.^

Uh... Teddy, Yeano isn't playing. Just hosting. :|

I don't know who to vote for at the moment. I'll make a decision when I seem to have little or no doubt that somebody is the Cultist or Mafia.

Well the town got really lucky last night. Instead of losing a townie, we lost a cultist.

Assuming the Cult didn't take a townie.

by voting no kill we give the cop another round to investigate

Assuming the cop didn't get taken by the cult, or lose his ability by becoming a mason.

we give the masons another round to recruit.

If all thats left is Masons and mafia, the mafia will instant win as there is NOTHING they can do against Mafia at all.

AS SUCH, your plan is flawed, CtR.

Now that he's dead, he can work on the site and haunt the Dead Thread...

Well a vote for me would be a mistake. That's all I'm saying for now. If we end up with an agreement from X amount of people to do a Roll Vote, it'd be far superior to just get the consensus for that, then roll.

As of now I am voting for LLight. In one reply (1333937389) he is suggesting a No Kill, but not too long after that (1333938267) he's piling on to what was random. Had it been somebody else (his mafia buddy, perhaps), he may have not piled on.

ALSO, if we do not vote this time, there is a higher chance there will be two cult and the ONLY way we could stop them is if the town, and the mafia both miraculously killed the two, the next round the town miraculously got the one recruited next before they died. leaving out the possibility of masons getting the cult, of course. But STILL.

Better to gamble now, than put us in a terrible position later, imo.

As of now I am voting for LLight. In one reply (1333937389) he is suggesting a No Kill, but not too long after that (1333938267) he's piling on to what was random. Had it been somebody else (his mafia buddy, perhaps), he may have not piled on.

I'll grant you, that was suspicious... but I think he's just trying to do what it takes to take out the Cult before they get way out of hand...

Really we still have pretty baseless suspicions. Until we start noticing a pattern, we really have no evidence.

If you ask me, just the presence of the Cult makes the game seem out of hand.

If you ask me, just the presence of the Cult makes the game seem out of hand.

I agree. Had I known ahead of time we'd be adding even more random shit, I probably would've just sat this game out.

The Roles that are *still* in play are in yeanos post at the very top.

Why can the masons not take out the mafia?

If Yeano dies then maybe I can become Host?

lol @ teddy

I think maybe the cult and masons should recruit every other turn.

And lets just work this game out.

Why can the masons not take out the mafia?

Well, they can't convert them. The masons wouldn't know who the mafia is, they take away town abilities, they only get one vote (main thread) and the mafia gets one vote, AND can silence.

Had I known ahead of time we'd be adding even more random shit, I probably would've just sat this game out.

Come on, man. It's exciting.

And lets not rule out Redack. He is obviously here lurking using his powers to kill all us us. He is the only one who can kill us without even playing.

But yeah. Cut Yeano a break. He works hard on this forum.

Just focus on the game.

I am joking I am being silly as always. Just thought I'd add a little satire so make people feel less tense. :P

Exciting? Exciting?! We have enough trouble with just the Mafia, and NOW we have a third party that could win should they get a majority? It's aggravating is what it is!

The Masons can take out the Mafia fairly easily if there get to be enough of them. Keep in mind that if there are multiple Masons, they will all know that each other are not Mafia, which narrows down potential Mafia members considerably. They also make it so the Cult has pretty much no chance if the Mafia are taken out, because the Cult can't kill them and can only hope to lynch them.

I don't mind the Cult. Actually, I find it interesting that things keep getting switched up--it keeps the game from getting stale.

I'm considering a no kill vote. But I haven't decided yet.

Yeah this is kinda confusing even before the cults and Masons. Next thing you know we add in someone who can revive the dead then we will have ghosts you can haunt and us and force to admit who we our. And then we would bring in people who can suck ghosts up and put them in a box. Then we will bring in psychics who ran read minds and has the ability to enter any thread they want but can't vote based on that.

But in all seriousness I have an idea in mind but I don't know if I should say it.

I don't mind the Cult. Actually, I find it interesting that things keep getting switched up--it keeps the game from getting stale.

Agreed to that! Don't get discouraged, or regret this cult idea Yeano, it's interesting, and entertaining to be sure.

Next thing you know we add in someone who can revive the dead

Doctor. But thats part of a basic mafia game, so.

Lancer has some good points.

The Masons can take out the Mafia fairly easily if there get to be enough of them. Keep in mind that if there are multiple Masons, they will all know that each other are not Mafia, which narrows down potential Mafia members considerably.

Seriously. There is one more mason than cultist. And the Mason can take out the cultists. As long as there are masons, the game is pretty fair.

Doctor. But thats part of a basic mafia game, so.

I was going along the lines of zombie, vampire, undead slasher killer but yeah {:3}

If you have ideas Teddy, I would announce them to Yeano after the game

When I said "ideas" I meant opinions on who to vote. I am still thinking about if I should through my serious opinion out there.

Go ahead and throw your idea out there, Teddy. We need some theories to work with.

Yes. If you have any idea of who might be a cultist or mafio, let us know.

If we're going to throw suspicions out there, I have been pondering what Hez said. It is an odd move for Llight... Makes me wonder if he's cult/Mafia.

Everyone throw any suspicions you have out there. We need to get back onto the topic of this game haha

I don't have a theory. Just a gut reaction. Llight throws all these statistics around which is even more confusing and he seems like he knows what he is talking about. For all we know he could be doing this to throw us off because he is Mafia or a cultist. This is just what I have been thinking about since the begging of the game.

If we have a smart guy who knows what he is talking about then he could use us townies ad pawns. I don't know I just think he can be the mafia or cultist either way.

I vote Llight for now.

Might change might not unless I get more evidence otherwise.

Not a bad suspicion. I have noticed his sporadic behavior. I'm not entirely sure though. I'll remain no kill for now, but i'll sleep on it.

So far Hezekiah and Teddy are voting Llight.

Knukles is still voting Hezekiah.

Teddy makes a somewhat good point there, everyone just seemed to disregard him since he's often our fearless leader/it seems he is now.

Plus he encouraged no voting, he tells us to roll, then he piles on my RANDOM roll while not rolling, saying he was trying to make a majority.

I think Hez might be on to something, as such i'm voting

Llight

For now anyway.. as always, my vote is suject to change.

Plus, this behavior is not like Llight at all in the mafia games, plus he's been townie sided in pretty much every game before, and suddenly he's different.

Are you shitting me? That's completely like me in mafia games, just be glad that I don't break this game too. Doing a RNG is the most unbiased thing you can do. Saying which option is the most likely to succeed is just an objectionable statement, it does not indicate anything other than that. If the RNG lands on me, I'll vote it,

There is still a 3/13% 23% chance that we lynch a cultist/mafioso.

Back to what I was saying when I asked Yeano about the cop results:

If the cop is around and gets a "Guilty" verdict (mafia), they should reveal themselves and post all of their information. There will only be one way of getting a Guilty result due to the godfather, and lynching the silencer would eliminate a huge obstacle for the masons. Remember that if a mason recruits a mafioso at night, all the masons that voted for that person will die. If the masons recruit a cultist, the cultist will die. If the cultists recruit a mason, all of the cultists that voted for that mason will die.

Right now--if we assume the mason recruited someone last round--they recruited a townie and have two masons. There is only one cultist, and two mafiosos. The masons should definitely recruit someone this round, since there's only a 2/13 chance that they'll target someone that's mafia. That means an 84% chance that if they recruit at random, they'll help the town; those are great odds.

The more masons, the more likely it is for all of the anti-towns to die. So far I think this game is going pretty alright.

That being said, if we assume the cop and doctor are still the cop and doctor, and that there are two masons, voting at random doesn't seem like a great idea. The odds of lynching one of them are greater than lynching the silencer, godfather, or cultist.

Voting no-kill for now, but I might be willing to change it if I'm fealing like taking a chance and voting on suspicions.

Man, trying to keep up with all these numbers and statistics is making my hair hurt.
It's worst then trying to pick a horse at the derby.
Will decided what I want to do later after I go over dose on aspirin and Maalox.

I just read through the replies, and I'm still not sure where my vote is going.

@Llight, no, it isn't... and if you break this game, you'll be banned from it...

@majora how can you be so sure the cop isn't already taken?

I think that is why Majora said "if we assume the Cop and Doctor are still the Cop and Doctor, ..."

I know, but why assume? i mean, is it worth the chance?

It's better than assuming the cop and doctor were converted. We don't know who got converted unless they speak up, which I'm not sure if that would be a good idea at this point. Since we don't know, it's better to assume the worst. In this case, since it's about the probability of mislynching, it would be worse if the cop and doctor weren't converted, since they would be potential mislynch victims.

I'm not saying we should assume the cop is unconverted and that we should wait for them to reveal information.

So are we going to vote for someone, or just wait until next round?

... I wanted to be lazy, but looks like it's up to me to make a vote count, and help everyone along.

Votes for No kill-3 (Majora, CtR, Zanic)

Votes to kill Llight-3 (Knuckles, Teddy,
hezekiah)

Votes to kill hezekiah-1 (Llight)

Oh lawd, what have we here.

LLight was valuable for the past two games, so unless anything conclusive can be said against him, I wouldn't want to throw away such a valuable asset.

If tonight goes shitty, there will two mafia and two cultists, and two less townies to our ranks.

UghhhHhH I'll have to actually go through and read some things before I decide who deserves my vote. But superficial things I've noticed:

Votes to kill Llight-3 (Knuckles, Teddy,
hezekiah)

1) Either the two mafia have convince another person to vote their way, taking out someone who can prove to be dangerous in later rounds.

2) The three listed are three townies.

3) One of them is the cultist, and they're swaying votes towards someone they know will be dangerous later.

Votes for No kill-3 (Majora, CtR, Zanic)

I would consider these three to be more townie than mafia. By how early it is in the game, they would still have leniency if they offed a few unfortunate bastards by "voting wrong", so no vote would be a bad move for them.

Votes to kill hezekiah-1 (Llight)

I wouldn't really expect LLight to go the "Someone voted for me, so I'll vote for him because fuck that guy" route. Of course, you guys have been rolling and I haven't bothered to see what that's about yet, so w/e, I'll go back and read it

idk, we're running out of time, luck, and people. If this drags on too long, we may be screwed. thats WHY i'm against no voting this round, if we knock out the Cult this round, they are gone. HOWEVER if we leave killing the cult to someone in the night, they will JUST RECRUIT ANOTHER PERSON. We HAVE to end this in the day, IMO. It's worth the risk, IMO.

Plus, Llight was acting much different, and suspicious, even somewhat unstable back there.

I think LLight's actions this time are mostly consistent with previous games, so while I can't rule him out completely, I'm not going to vote him out this round. And I'm certainly not going to go with the random vote rolling that landed on Hezekiah. In the absence of any good suspicions at this point, I'm going to vote no kill this round.

I do think people are panicking overmuch about the whole Cultist thing. I don't think we really need to worry about the Cult that much unless we lose our Masons, because there's always the chance of the Cult accidentally killing themselves. Yes, we will eventually have to lynch, but if we have more Masons than Cult members we're in the lead IMO. At this point, the Cultist has a 1/3 chance of hitting either a Mason or a Mafia member, either of which works in the Town's favor.

Well it doesn't prove anything if I claim to be a townie or if I say that you're wrong because you won't know if your suspicions are wrong until I die. So what I'm going to do is create a robot version of myself to do my bidding. {:3} Only problem is that it's specifically tailored to this version of the game and there are a ton of variables to consider. It'll be a challenge if I want it to give statistics of all potential outcomes until the next day round.

Been thinkin' about it, so yeah, you can either play by the mathematical or psychological aspects of this game. It might be time to start on the robot me so I can focus on the psychological part of this game, so even if I die you can still count on my statistics.

Maybe someone should convince EN or The Fly to join the game, they will be a huge help in my endeavors because I've seen a lot of end game statistics using some formulas that I don't quite get.

If the cop is around and gets a "Guilty" verdict (mafia), they should reveal themselves and post all of their information. There will only be one way of getting a Guilty result due to the godfather, and lynching the silencer would eliminate a huge obstacle for the masons. Remember that if a mason recruits a mafioso at night, all the masons that voted for that person will die. If the masons recruit a cultist, the cultist will die. If the cultists recruit a mason, all of the cultists that voted for that mason will die.

I agree 100% with this post. Getting rid of the Silencer would help the Masons, and thus the Town, immensely, and it's probably worth sacrificing the Cop to do it. And actually, if we lynched the Silencer, there would be no reason for the Mafia to kill the Cop (since he can't detect the Godfather) and he would be too obvious of a target for the Cult (meaning that recruiting him wouldn't help them, since we'd suspect that they would do so).

The masons should definitely recruit someone this round, since there's only a 2/13 chance that they'll target someone that's mafia. That means an 84% chance that if they recruit at random, they'll help the town; those are great odds.

I agree that the Masons should recruit, but I do want to point out that they actually have a 2/11 chance to hit a Mafia member since they obviously won't be recruiting themselves.

"idk, we're running out of time, luck, and people."

Knukles, where do you come up with this stuff?

We're only 23 hours into the 72 hours we have to act and we have not lost anyone yet. The only one killed so far was a Cultist.

I for one would like to let the round play out it's time, if for no other reason then to see who does and does not post. It may help us to see if any one has been silenced.

Ah shit, just realized we won't ever know the true numbers of our doctors, cops, and masons. I mean, I realized we wouldn't know the first two, but the masons yeah, really throws it off from a townie perspective. Might need to make one script for each alignment.

I'm still questioning poptart! I mean, even if he isn't mafia or cult, he's not being much help at all. I'm not saying lynch the poor guy, I'm just curious if he did this the other game he was in.

I'm just curious if he did this the other game he was in.


Pretty much.

I remember he was much more active in the first game than in this one, or at least I think that.

All he said is what with a lot of a's and it had nothing to do with any of the topics. I realize he could be silenced, but he only posted once in the first day anyway.

I doubt poptart is silenced. I don't think they would silence someone so early who isn't participating anyway.

And he definitely played much more in the first game. In fact, he was actually saved by the Doctor. XD

Yes, he was! That was a good Doc.

Haha, unless you count the redacted Game 2, this is the first game we've played where someone wasn't saved the first round.

I don't think they would silence someone so early who isn't participating anyway.

I agree. I doubt he's a bad role, but I'm a little miffed that he isn't helping us out. And I don't know what's up with Shadowwalked.

As for the accusations against Llight, I can't really say as I have no clue how he played before. I really have no idea at the moment, so I'm going to stick with no kill this round

PoPtart could be having IRL problems.

Yes, he was! That was a good Doc.



I play much better when I don't go into a drunken rampage around places.

I agree. I doubt he's a bad role, but I'm a little miffed that he isn't helping us out. And I don't know what's up with Shadowwalked.

Was at the mountains. They're pretty nice this time of year. But I'm back, and I'm reading and looking into things when I'm not working on organic chem.

PoPtart could be having IRL problems.

I've played games like this with PoP before, and he's not doing anything out of character. He watches and waits til he thinks its best for him to make his appearance, and he does. It just depends if he's in a "I want to win the game" mood, or "I'm going to kill everyone" mood. Since he hasn't been trying to mobilize the town against someone yet, he's probably a townie and bored.

Oh. I didn't see your post up there. Ok. I think I'm good on all of the debating.

Well I've seen pop on AIM, so he does exist.

I finished the robot me as explained in reply 1334010139 with a display similar to reply 1333937389.

I really fucked up the stat predictions for the mason and number of special role townie numbers since--as explained earlier, there's no way to tell anymore, unlike last game because we knew the numbers. I also just assumed the masons recruited, which is wrong, so there's no way to tell unless they somehow obliterate themselves and their roles and numbers are revealed, so I've left that out of the script.

I'll post a download link and better instructions on how to use it tomorrow after work. The tricky part was getting the chart display to work with all the increments based on the number of people listed in the text file because I had no fucking clue how to properly nest those loops until I threw in some counters. It took time because I forgot how to script in VBS for a moment. I started writing it as a batch script until I realized you can't do floating point operations with multiplication and division without a VBS script so I just said "fuck it" and wrote the whole thing in VBS.

Forgive the formatting, GT eats my tabbage. It'll look prettier after I upload it. You need to create a players.txt file in the same directory as the script, then run it. players.txt should look like this:

white lancer
Shadowwalked
#85
'Roxas'
poptart!
Zanic
hezekiah
Knukles2000
CtR Black
MajorasMask9
LLight
chiefsonny
Teddy-Son

Run it with cscript mafia.vbs on a command prompt.

---

mafia.vbs should look like this:

'Title: mafia.vbs
'Author: LLight
'Date: 3/10/2012
'Website: gtx0.com
'Description: Stats display and random roll chart for Yeano's third Mafia game.

Option Explicit
dim numTownies, numMafia, numCult, totalPlayers, curPath, objFile, strLine, arrLines, objReg, incrVal, objFSO, i, j, k, l, m, maxRoll
curPath = CreateObject("Scripting.FileSystemObject").GetAbsolutePathName(".")
Set objFSO = CreateObject("Scripting.FileSystemObject")
objFile = objFSO.OpenTextFile(curPath & "\players.txt",1).ReadAll

'Please update these variables according to the game progress
numTownies=10
numMafia=2
numCult=1
maxRoll=100 'dice size

'Get number of lines, fast, for totalPlayers
Set objReg = New RegExp
With objReg
.Global = True
.Pattern = "\r\n"
totalPlayers = .Execute(objFile).Count + 1
End With

'Get total number of players from players.txt, should be in the same directory as this script
incrVal = (maxRoll/totalPlayers)
If incrVal < maxRoll Then
incrVal = Fix(maxRoll/totalPlayers)
End If

'Display roll chart and name/number of each player
WScript.Echo "If you choose to roll, here is the chart calculated by " & maxRoll & "/[totalPlayers] which is " & round((maxRoll/totalPlayers),2) & " rounded up or down to " & incrVal & "."
WScript.Echo

k = int(-IncrVal) 'so start value of count on plyr1 is always 1
l = int(-IncrVal) + 1 'so end value of count on plyr1 is always +1 of IncrVal
arrLines = Split(objFile,vbCrLf)
For Each strLine in arrLines 'loop through each name in players.txt
m = m + 1 'player number
For i = 1 To IncrVal Step IncrVal 'Incremental value per player
For j = 1 To IncrVal
k = k + 1
l = l + 1
If j - i + 1 = IncrVal Then 'only display last entry in this loop
WScript.Echo m & ". " & strLine & " is " & k + 1 & " to " & l + IncrVal - 1
End If
Next
Next
Next
If l + IncrVal <= maxRoll Then 'Don't display re-roll if the IncrVal is greater than or equal to maxRoll
WScript.Echo m + 1 & ". Re-Roll is " & l + IncrVal & " to " & maxRoll
Else
WScript.Echo "No Re-Roll is necessary."
End If

Randomize 'seed based on computer clock
WScript.Echo
WScript.Echo "Roll: " & Int((maxRoll - 1 + 1) * Rnd + 1) & " (you should definitely use ~(roll)~)"

'Basic stats display
WScript.Echo
WScript.Echo "Day Round: "
WScript.Echo "**" & numTownies & "/" & totalPlayers & " " & round(numTownies/totalPlayers,4)*100 & "% chance that we lynch a townie."
WScript.Echo "Townies: " & numTownies
WScript.Echo "Total Players: " & totalPlayers
WScript.Echo
WScript.Echo "**(" & numMafia & "+" & numCult & ")/" & totalPlayers & " " & round((numMafia+numCult)/totalPlayers,4)*100 & "% chance that we lynch a cultist or mafioso."
WScript.Echo "Mafiosos: " & numMafia
WScript.Echo "Cultists: " & numCult
WScript.Echo "Total Players: " & totalPlayers
WScript.Echo
WScript.Echo "**" & numMafia & "/" & totalPlayers & " " & round(numMafia/totalPlayers,4)*100 & "% chance that we lynch a mafioso."
WScript.Echo "Mafiosos: " & numMafia
WScript.Echo "Total Players: " & totalPlayers
WScript.Echo
WScript.Echo
WScript.Echo "Night Round: "
WScript.Echo "**" & numTownies & "/(" & numCult & "+" & numTownies & ") " & round(numTownies/(numCult+numTownies),4)*100 & "% chance that mafia murder a townie."
WScript.Echo "Cultists: " & numCult
WScript.Echo "Townies: " & numTownies
WScript.Echo
WScript.Echo "**" & numCult & "/(" & numCult & "+" & numTownies & ") " & round(numCult/(numCult+numTownies),4)*100 & "% chance that mafia murder a cultist."
WScript.Echo "Cultists: " & numCult
WScript.Echo "Townies: " & numTownies
WScript.Echo 'this last one is kind of weird because any role that isn't a mason will never know the number of masons
WScript.Echo "**" & numCult & "/" & totalPlayers & " " & round(numCult/totalPlayers,4)*100 & "% chance that masons kill a cultist."
WScript.Echo "Cultists: " & numCult
WScript.Echo "Total Players: " & totalPlayers
WScript.Echo
WScript.Echo "**(" & 1 & "/" & totalPlayers & ")/" & totalPlayers & " " & round((1/totalPlayers)/totalPlayers,4)*100 & "% chance that two or more roles select the same target."
WScript.Echo "Where 1 is a 1/" & totalPlayers & " chance of selecting anyone."
WScript.Echo "Total Players: " & totalPlayers
WScript.Echo
WScript.Echo "Percentage of mafia win if everyone randomly votes every round is described by numMafia/sqr(totalPlayers) is " & numMafia & "/" & round(sqr(totalPlayers),2) & " which is " & round(numMafia/sqr(totalPlayers),4)*100 & "%."

Set objFSO = Nothing

Edited: Haha that's funny, I rolled a 47 in this post which is still hezekiah. Also fixed a few mistakes. There are probably more, but I'll look over it later.

I think it's a safe assumption that #85 was silenced this round.

Oh, so all it is is an odds-of-killing calculator. Unless I'm reading your code wrong?

Yeah, that was the easy part of the script from the values we can for sure derive with the information that we know we have. The hard part was making the random roll chart, I'm like, so proud now.

Feel free to suggest more stats for values that I could put in. I forgot to put in the percentage for mafia win if we went the whole game with randomly generated rolls. There's a whole lot of math for this game and the stats here are the basics of basics on a per round basis.

Idk what to say to you all pretty much anymore. seems like i'm wasting my breath tbh. But I guess we'll see where voting Llight out, or no voting leads.

A lot of what he says confuses my eyes. He is obviously trying to blind us with his confusing stats that I don't even understand. Cult or Maifa, Llight is trying to trick us. 0_0

Sure, you can lynch me but you won't know if that's a mistake until I die. It'd be funny if I offered cult/masons to try to recruit me with me writing something specific to their roles. The cult would have priority first and make me a cultist, then the masons would find me as a cultist and I'd die, or the mafia tries to kill me, that's unless you guys lynch me first.

:O that could mean that Xhin may not have been the original cultist! It's still a bummer that the doctor can't reverse recruitment though. There's just so many variables, I need someone with a good understanding of math to do it right.

Just a few things

*theres no vigilante, so its 100% up to the town to take out the mafia.
*the cult can be taken out by the masons AND the town.
*the more townies we kill the lower our numbers are, and probably the more cult members there are.
*it's not only us against the cult, it's us against the mafia also.

This is why, in my opinion, lynching someone this round is a bad idea. We only lost a cultist, we still have 10 townies left, and if we dont lynch we'll at least have 8. No need to be rash so early in the game. plenty of rounds left.

Yeah, I'm going to go with a no vote. We should have two masons if I'm not mistaken, with a third one gained tonight. The cultist can try to recruit someone, but if he picks wrong he'll kill himself.

And if we're lucky, the mafia will off another cultist during the night. Or a cultist will recruit a mafia. Something like that.

Could just be some illogical thinking, but I believe that the Cultist would be laying low and staying off of the town's radar. Just my two cents.

5 votes no kill (CtR Black, Majorasmask9, White Lancer, Shadowwalked, Zanic)

3 Votes to kill LLight (Teddy-son, Knuckles, Hezekiah)

1 vote to kill Hezekiah (Llight)

Yeah. I'm pretty sure no one is getting lynched this round, so you guys should just switch to no vote to speed things up.

Could just be some illogical thinking, but I believe that the Cultist would be laying low and staying off of the town's radar. Just my two cents.

Possibly. It would depend on the individual's playstyle though.

I don't like the idea of "speeding the round up," especially when we are only just over a day in to this round.

I just don't see much point in lynching someone this round, but I'm open to accusations.

I don't mind if the round isn't sped up. I'm always interested to see more discussion and gather more information. Probably not going to change my vote, but if someone looks suspicious enough or if someone makes a persuasive enough argument, I might.

Actually it's still wrong to assume there are 2 masons. Our mason could have tried to recruit a cultist (1/14 chance last round for ((1/14)/14 for cultist and mason to select the same target) and the mafia may have not killed anyone. Only the mason(s) would know that though. I'd say the percentage of mason/cult/mafia/doctor/cop to use their night actions is 50%, so just because they are able to use their actions doesn't mean they used them. We don't know which faction used their night actions last night because it could have been any combination of cult/mason kill or mafia kill. The only role we know that did act for sure was the cult because they're still alive. Then again only the mason(s) would know if they acted or not during the night round.

When you say "acted," LLight, do you mean take out Xhin? Wouldn't the Mafia also know if they did or didn't kill him?

2+2=4
2+4=6
2+6=8
2+8=10
2+10=12
2+12=14
2+14=16
2+16=18
2+18=20

God damn it. I ran out of fingers and toes. Now what the hell am I going to do. And on top of that I lost my good dice.

I think it's safe to say there are two Masons, simply because there would be no reason for the Mafia not to kill anyone last round. Really, there are very few situations where the night roles wouldn't use their powers.

I like chiefsonny's avatar.

Does #85 seem kinda suspicious to anyone?

PoPtart is not around why would #85 be any different? Clearly people here believe that if you don't talk you must be suspicious. I think we should leave the non-talkers alone.

I agree with with Teddy, leave them be. They have their own strategy to play, even if it means drawing a little bit of attention to themselves. Besides, maybe one of them were silenced.

We can't just ignore people who don't talk. Both games that we've finished, some of the non-talkers have turned out to be Mafia. That's not necessarily true this round, since we have considerably fewer non-talkers, but we can't just leave them alone.

I do believe that #85 is most likely silenced. He normally talks quite a bit, even when he is Mafia.

I've already posted that I think #85 is silenced. The only other person that hasn't talked this round is poptart and honestly I don't think the mafia would silence him.

Also I think it's not very likely that the mafia no-killed last night. That would be stupid; there'd really be no reason for them to do that. It would put them at a disadvantage in a game where two groups pose some threat to them. However, I guess it is possible that the mafia could have targeted someone who was doctor protected. This is very unlikely though, despite the fact that it happened in the last two rounds as was pointed out. Considering there's nothing we can do about it either way, we could always just hope for the best until we find out.

I do believe that #85 is most likely silenced. He normally talks quite a bit, even when he is Mafia.

{:D}

I think you may be right. He's been talking here up until the night round and he's posting in other forums.

How much time left?

When you say "acted," LLight, do you mean take out Xhin? Wouldn't the Mafia also know if they did or didn't kill him?

No, the night actions get get resolved in this order: Cult actions -> Mason actions -> Mafia actions -> Cop actions -> Doctor actions. See reply 1333735102 in post [p:62455]. Since last round there was a small (1/14)/14 0.5% chance that a cultist and a mason select the same target, the cultist action would resolve and turn the townie into a cultist, then the mason action would resolve and kill the new cultist. Like I said, it's a small chance, but that's also possible. In terms of the psychological aspect of this game, giving someone reason to target you would increase the likelihood of them actually targeting you, much like the mafia's inherit trait is to convince the town to vote someone out by lynching them, likewise mafioso's choice to kill is also optional.

FATAL ERROR. LLIGHT DOES NOT COMPUTER. CTR+ALT+DEL ERROR FILE DOES NOT EXIST. SEARCHING. FAILED. SYSTEM CRASH.

PoPtart is not around why would #85 be any different? Clearly people here believe that if you don't talk you must be suspicious. I think we should leave the non-talkers alone.

It's not that we find them suspicious Teddy. It's the fact that they're not helping us get to any conclusions at all. I agree with Lancer that we can't leave them alone. Even if #85 is silenced, poptart! isn't giving his input at all. They're apart of this game too. That would be like you not talking at all. We'd get mad because you weren't helping us seek out mafia as well. So they can't be ignored regardless if they're mafia or not.

With this, I have defeated the death god, Yeano.

"Since last round there was a small (1/14)/14 0.5% chance that a cultist and a mason select the same target"

But that's wrong. Regardless of who the Cult picks (excluding the Mason, as that clearly didn't happen), the Mason has a 1/13 chance of picking them.

That's sounds a bit more correct. So in the last round it should be (1/13)/13 0.56% where 1/13 is the mason's pick since the mason cannot pick themselves and 13 is the total number of players-1 because the cultist can also not pick themselves. I've scrapped mason stats after the first round because after that since there is no way of telling how many people have been recruited to the masons.

And yes one of two things could have happened that resulted in a cult death last night round.

Cultist and mason picked the same person, resulting in death (1/13)/13 0.56%

Mafia killed the cultist 2/14 14.29%

As you can see by the percentages, mafia kill is more likely. Too lazy to fix script right now, but I should probably subtract numCult from one of the stats. I was thinking that wasn't an accurate representation anyway.

LLight, you're still not right about this...

Cultist gets 1 pick:
1/13 results in death (pick Mason)
12/13 recruits new member

Then, Mason gets 1 (?) pick:
1/13 picks original Cult (death)
Otherwise, it'd be something like a 1/12 chance of picking the same person the Cult chose to recruit. This is independent of the Cult's choice, meaning the Mason's chances of getting a Cultist killed is more like 5% than .5%.

If you're having trouble understanding this still, look up the Birthday Problem.

I get this part
Cultist gets 1 pick:
1/13 results in death (pick Mason)
12/13 recruits new member

But this part is more like this since the person the cultist picks is converted to a cultist
Then, Mason gets 1 (?) pick:
2/13 picks Cult (death)

How would you write the equation?

This is also only relevant after the first round when we know there is only 1 mason, because after that the townies won't know whether it was a mafia kill or a mason kill. After that, it's not possible for the town to know how many masons there are, only the masons would know that.

Yep, that'd be accurate. Guess I just missed the simplification...

Can't say I understand the Mason rules yet, so can't give you the equation for 'em...

I just realized that the cult can recruit mafia, but still, I think it would be best to eliminate the cult for their sheer bunny rabbit effect. We've got a rock, paper, scissors going on.

Maybe it would be (2/13)/13 1.18% where 2/13 is the mason pick and the other 13 is the cult pick, unless I'm getting the whole divide by 13 all wrong.

I don't think it matters as much how Xhin was killed. We just know that he was killed and the masons should recruit tonight. But only one of them should vote, to make sure that they both won't die if they pick a cultist.

Well, this round is about to end. So gl to all of you.

No, you don't divide by 13 twice. For the sake of this example, the town is 14 people, A-N. A is Cult, B is Mason. C-N are random other roles, unimportant for this.
If A picks:
B - death
C - 2/13 death ( Mason picks A or C)
D - 2/13 death ( Mason picks A or D)
E - 2/13 death ( Mason picks A or E)
F - 2/13 death ( Mason picks A or F)
G - 2/13 death ( Mason picks A or G)
H - 2/13 death ( Mason picks A or H)
I - 2/13 death ( Mason picks A or I)
J - 2/13 death ( Mason picks A or J)
K - 2/13 death ( Mason picks A or K)
L - 2/13 death ( Mason picks A or L)
M - 2/13 death ( Mason picks A or M)
N - 2/13 death ( Mason picks A or N)

So assuming all choices are truly random, you'd have 1/13*1 + 12/13*2/13 = 1/13 + 24/169 = 21.89% (ish) chance of a cult dying.

Of course, we're making quite the assumptions here. Namely, mafia being a non-factor, and Cult 1 choosing Mason while Mason chooses Cult 2 (that would result in 2 cult deaths).

Well here's what I think I know after reading through the post.

1. We still don't have any info that would bring a lot of suspicion to anyone yet.

2. Either #85 or poptart has been silenced this round. I think it's most likely #85.

3. If poptart was not silenced and does not want to participate in the game, then we should vote him out the next day round.

4. LLight and hezekiah are both very good with statics, and are boring the hell out of me.

5. I went with the roll the first round and with nothing concrete to go on and not in favor of the No Kill vote, I will use the roll again.

sorry, wrong dice

I guess that's a

Vote for Zanic

Sorry dude. Roll of the dice.

4. LLight and hezekiah are both very good with statics, and are boring the hell out of me.

XD I will admit, I mostly just skimmed those posts.

Eeyup.

1/13*1 + 12/13*2/13 = 1/13 + 24/169 = 21.89% (ish) chance of a cult dying.

Had me confused at the way this was written until brackets and equation symmetry made it all better. Cleaner way of writing it as:
P = (1/13) * (1/1) + (12/13) * (2/13)
P = 1/13 + 24/169
P = 21.89%

Where 1/13 is cult picking mason resulting in death and 12/13 is the chances of cult recruiting a new member not resulting in death, added to the 2/13 chance of mason picking the newly recruited cult member, makes more sense when applying the common denominator. Well, thanks for the math lesson. I'm satisfied with this answer.

Where's Yeano?

Wait. 72 hours. I was thinking 48 >.<