I think I'll watch Xhin's house tonight...

Hmmm...that means that either Xhin is a Townie or he simply didn't use his night action last night...I'm leaning somewhat towards the former since he admitted it yesterday-round, but I have seen Mafiosi do that before and get away with it.

EvilGuy, then, definitely has a night action, but which one is the question...he's not the Interceptor, since he visited Xhin's place and Xhin's still alive. Here's the list of roles with detectable night actions:

Oracle

Watcher

Selfless Doctor

Martyr

Interceptor

Ballot Forger

Newcomer
Of these, we can eliminate Watcher (which is me), Martyr (which was Bandit), and Interceptor (since Xhin wasn't the one killed last night-round). This leaves:

Oracle

Selfless Doctor

Ballot Forger

Newcomer

In other words, EvilGuy has a fifty-fifty chance at this point of actually being an evil guy.

Ah. In that case, disregard anything I've said about Xhin not having a night action; he could be a Townie, or he could have a night action, I don't know.

The EvilGuy analyiss still stands, though.

*analysis

Now, who to Watch tonight...hopefully I don't pick the Interceptor's target, but that's a risk I'm willing to take. Obviously I can't set anything in stone until the Night round officially starts, but at least I can think things through and narrow it down.

It looks like Hindenburg is going to be lynched this round; depending on what role he is, my chances of hitting the Interceptor could vary wildly. Was about to say maybe he is the Interceptor, but that would be impossible since the Interceptor actually performed a night action last night and killed a Town player, whereas if that was Hindenburg, the Mafia would be imploding upon themselves as we speak.

Cas was Mafia, so our numbers before the lynch are 10-5-1. Will have to see what side Hindenburg is on before making any more assessments based solely on numbers.

So, on to my potential targets...

First, the complete list, for my reference:
1. white lancer
2. Xhin
3. `Roxas`
4. Castrael
5. Black Yoshi
7. Lady Flare
8. Helius
9. Lightvayne
10. Hindenburg
12. Speed Bike Pro
13. MajorasMask9
14. chiefsonny
15. Ghowilo
16. Jo Nathan
17. Chaos Incarnate
18. hezekiah
19. EvilGuy0613

Majora. Was targeted by the Interceptor and then The Bandit, resulting in Bandit's death. Would be interesting to see who visits him tonight.

Xhin -- I Watched him last night and he was visited by EvilGuy, but I cannot know for sure if he was home.

white lancer -- Ever the clever and diligent player; I've seen him net the win in the last round before; see way back in Game 2 -- he was Mafia and Shadowwalked and chiefsonny were Town-roles, and he was able to net the win in the last round. Someone would certainly benefit from his death; which side, I don't know.

Helius -- Another stellar player, and another huge asset to whichever side he might be on. Again, someone would definitely benefit if he was nightkilled.

Jo Nathan -- Ditto.

hezekiah -- Ditto.

Ghowilo -- His actions this round have him particularly high on my suspicions list, and if I were a Tracker rather than a Watcher, I'd Track his movements in a heartbeat. Alas, I can only see who visits him, but it would still be interesting.

Those are the seven that stick out in my mind as potential Watcher targets, not because they were suspicious to me (except for Ghow), but because they are prime targets for Mafia kills. I'll have to think a bit more on this and get back to it when the Night round officially starts.

I think I'll watch Helius tonight...

Hmmm...this doesn't mean he has no night action, just that he wasn't visited last night...I'll have to think on this a bit.

Hmmm...with what's happened this day round...I think it may be a good idea to waych Ghowilo's house tonight...

*watch Ghowilo's house

Also if anyone reads this after game's end, if I die tonight, my prediction is that the Mafia will win this. With the numbers the way they are, I just don't see how the Town could pull this off unless we lynch perfectly every round AND lynch the Interceptor early on.

And Ghow died last night...odd...Mafia must've had their Godninja vote first. I should've expected that.