Alright, so my thoughts are that while a Macia plot is unlikely, it's not out of the question. Up until JN's death, he could be in contact with most anybody in the game he so pleased to be.

Let's say he had a deal with a Mafia member to keep him alive for as long as they could, knowing his role could play an advantage. His most likely resource for getting information should have been Lightvayne, because he can't be killed. However, going off of last round, he entrusted the Crier... Or the crier took a huge risk that he shouldn't have and it payed off for us this time.

So information is legally exchanged between members of the game with the DA action. Perhaps the Mafia leaks false information to keep one of their power roles safe, which could be where JN was unknowingly headed with the information in the night round.

So we still have the silencer and assassin on the loose, along with the godfather thrown in amongst them.

For arguments sake, we haven't really had a hard time tracking down who was silenced so far this game, even with the lack of activity from both sides. My best guess right now is that at least one member of the Mafia is quite inactive, at least in the day rounds, and my vote will go to that person.

I don't agree. If Hindenburg was a mafia power player he would be posting all over the place.

My gut tells me P_N is the one we should be worried about.

I have a GIANT post coming. Try not to end the game until I send it...

To be fair, the information was passed along to me too...I just kinda forgot to check the thread. ^^; I was kinda already tree and didnt realize thread was still of use to me

...Or not.

I wrote up a simulation of what would happen if we did a mass roleclaim but it got way way too complicated way too quick -- it would effectively take hours to explore it. However, here are some things I did learn:

On the surface, it seems like a good idea -- we currently have a 50% chance of hitting the mafia, whereas with a mass roleclaim we would have at least a 67% chance of hitting a mafioso.

The sheriff should always make their kill immediately, because they're currently the only thing preventing a loss for the town and with a mass roleclaim, the mafia will kill them at first opportunity.

The sheriff should also always kill one of the public investigators, because in every scenario I explored, the mafia would kill the sheriff and so it would be a situation where there was a sheriff and two others left and the sheriff we would know is guilty because the other one would be dead (and revealed publicly to the town).

The sheriff always has a 50% chance of killing a mafioso, which are the same odds we have currently.

However, another part of this is that the PI would be kept alive because the mafia are better off killing the sheriff.

The whole thing is really complex and I don't really have time to spend hours on it...

My gut tells me P_N is the one we should be worried about.

Now is not the time to be reliant on gut suspicions.

Bbefore jo died, he let on that he knew Chief was the silencer. While we could lynch him, in order to keep us in the game our target would have to be the Assassin. While I don't know much at this point, I'm going to side with Roxas and lean toward Hinden

Actually--!

What if the Sheriff tried to kill the tree? They would be revealed to the town, confirming their identity. The town crier could also reveal. In which case we just have to figure out which of the four public investigators is real...

Although no, at that point the ratio would effectively be 3-3 and we would have lost...

Also before I forget, I was also told P_N is innocent.

Hmm, if chief is *definitely* the silencer, then if we mass roleclaimed we'd have 33% chance of hitting the assassin and a 33% chance of hitting the other mafioso. We currently have a 1 in 6 chance of killing the assassin.

Okay, so.. If PN is definitely innocent we have these scenarios:

PN is the Town crier -- nothing changes in my calculations really because the town crier can reveal themselves.

PN is the sheriff -- With a mass roleclaim, four people would claim to be a PI (3 of the mafia)

PN is the PI -- with a mass roleclaim, four people would claim to be the sheriff (3 of them mafia)

If PN is the PI, then if the sheriff shoots the tree, then we know *exactly* who the mafia are...

Except then our voting ratio is 3-3 and we lose. Dammit!

So, what you're saying is we pretty much lose regardless.

I think what he's saying is that with the numbers the way they are, the Sheriff pretty much has to hit a Mafia NOW for us to even have a chance of winning. More than that, we need to hit the Assassin YESTERDAY. If we come to a consensus that more than one person is overtly suspicious, the Sheriff should then take out one of them and then we should lynch the other.

What do you make of JN's accusation against chief? Is it one to be trusted?

He was town sided, I see no reason for it to not be trusted, the fact you are even questioning it only brings up your own suspicion.
In order for us to win, we need the sheriff to kill the assassin today and also lynch a known mafia member (or vice versa)

I'm just concerned that with the last couple of games, things may be amok.

Come on guys, let's kill someone.

Idk though, really... I'll check this again tonight. But in the meantime, we don't want to kill PN...

Is that one mafia trying to protect another mafia?

Is that one mafia trying to protect another mafia?

No, that's what Lightvayne said. Who's a confirmed innocent. Chief confirmed for silencer.

From this post JN never accused anyone. He let on. You mean like a gut feeling.



Who told Lightvayne that. I'd like a link to that post.

Holy cow that went well! I love you black yoshi!

Okay, now that the assassin is out of the picture, I think we should all roleclaim.

Seems legit.

I'm the tree!{troll}

Now that y'all know I'm the Sheriff, I can safely say that JN whispered to me that PN is the PI...though that could have been a Mafia ruse. In any case, this won't be in the tallies since I'm on mobile, but

Well, fuck. Good game. I'm the silencer