Engines Aether Legend of the Lunar Priest NIFE Roadmap
Shatterloop Game Projects Deprecated Starwright
Saepes Mundi Other Projects Blog  

Mafia

Moderated by: Speed Bike Pro

game 34 night 2 up in flames

Posted February 25, 2015 by hezekiah

Day 2

"Stop, wait, you don't understand! I'm one of you!"

Xhin is running towards the sound of the cries when they suddenly are cut off with an awful shriek. He spots the teacups ride going full bore and hits the emergency stop. As the ride slows to a halt, he notices a body lashed to one of the pods, with its now-detached arms dangling from a separate one. The streaks of blood ringing the ride give him an idea for another piece of his psychedelic artwork. Xhin is brought out of his daydream when the rest of the visitors arrive, and with them comes the realization that the deceased was actually friendly fire. That's right, chiefsonny was a Mafioso.


1) Speed Bike Pro
2) Chaos Incarnate
3) Ghowilo
4) Feral Wolf - Townie
5) Jo Nathan
6) EvilGuy0613
7) Lightvayne
8) Helius
9) white lancer
10) Lady Flare
11) The Bandit
12) Female Alpha Wolf
13) Frustro
14) Pirate_Ninja
15) Xhin
16) chiefsonny - Mafioso
17) CtR Black
18) Black Yoshi
19) Hindenburg

4-13
Mafioso x4
VIP
Martyr
Governor
Distracted Doctor
Townie x9

72 hours or 11 votes.

With the death of a chiefsonny, the mafioso who knew him inherits his knowledge of another (in order to maintain the loop).

There are 48 Replies

extensionEnable Post Pagination

Well, we got one of the mafia out of the way, so considering last round, I noticed quite a few folks had no problem getting rid of Hindenburg. I, of course, want to do this also. I don't see him adding anything to the game and we might even hit another mafia. Win-win.

Also, I don't have much else to go on at this point.

February 25, 2015
Edit
Ghowilo

ROFL

February 25, 2015
Edit
Jo Nathan

Well, we got one of the mafia out of the way, so considering last round, I noticed quite a few folks had no problem getting rid of Hindenburg. I, of course, want to do this also. I don't see him adding anything to the game and we might even hit another mafia. Win-win.


AAANNND that, ladies and gentlemen, is how you make me suspicious the quickest way possible.

February 25, 2015
Edit
Frustro

Yeah, no. Playing really aggressively like that is an awful plan in this setup. There's no reason to risk hitting the VIP when, as we've already seen, the mafia have a decent chance of killing one of their own.

February 25, 2015
Edit
The Bandit

First off, you don't know me Frustro, if you did you'd know that I don't put a whole lot of thought into my posts until at least mid game. Also there's this thing where I'm not a big fan of hindenburg and like to kill him just for the sake of killing him. On top of that, people usually find me suspicious in the early game, so I don't really care. However, seeing as we're mutual strangers, I'm curious as to your logic so why do you find me suspicious?

February 25, 2015
Edit
Ghowilo

If you're not serious about your vote or have any other reason besides just being an ass then don't vote. That's how mistakes happen -_-

And considering that if we kill the VIP and that's an instant game over, I'd suggest treading lightly. Just because you don't like him doesn't mean he's not an important role.

February 25, 2015
Edit
FAW

Yeah there's really no point in trying to kill anyone this game.

@hezekine: How does the distracted doctor work? I looked in the rulebook but I couldn't find that variation.. and it's not on the day 1 sheet either.

February 25, 2015
Edit
Xhin
Sky's the limit

Distracted Doctor is the same as a Doctor except they cannot protect the same person twice in a row. The exception to that rule, apparently for this game, is that they CAN protect the same person twice in a row if the previous protection actually was a save.

February 25, 2015
Edit
Jo Nathan

Jo has it right. Had I thought ahead the first time I used the variant, I would've made "can repeat if successful" the standard.

February 25, 2015
Edit
hezekiah

Let's play a game of probability! Xhin, your resident Gambler ordinary townie presiding..

Toggle mafia stuff that isnt as cool as the other idea


Let's say the VIP revealed when there were 3 mafia left..

Round A. Kill a mafia member

Round A night. Martyr protects VIP and dies

Round B. Kill a mafia member

Round B night. Distracted doctor protects VIP and dies

Round C. Kill the last mafia member

I can't find any problems with the VIP revealing when there are three mafia left.. and that's a worst-case scenario. What if the doctor protected the martyr? What if the martyr protected the doctor?

What if the VIP reveals now?

Round A. Kill a mafioso

Round A night. Someone protects VIP. 1/12 chance of them dying that night.

Round B. Kill a mafioso

Round B night. Someone protects VIP. 1/11 chance of them dying that night.

Round C. Kill mafia scum. 1/132 chance both protectors are dead and we've lost the game.

Round C night. Someone protects VIP. 1/10 chance of them dying. Who dies this night round doesn't matter, unless the mafia have already somehow killed both doctors.

Round D. Kill mafia, game won

With the above strategy we have a 1/132 chance of losing and a 131/132 chance of winning. Those are good odds! If both protectors are alive when there's three mafia left, then we have a 100% chance of winning. Those are great odds!

February 25, 2015
Edit
Xhin
Sky's the limit

Xhin's strategy actually makes a lot of sense; however, there is always a chance of us mislynching and, hell, even a chance of one Mafia taking it to the end (see the game where Bubba won for the Mafia).

February 25, 2015
Edit
Black Yoshi

How could we mislynch? The VIP knows who all of the mafia are. Also in order for a mafia to take it to the end, they'd have to kill both the martyr and the doctor in successive night rounds.

February 25, 2015
Edit
Xhin
Sky's the limit

You'll have to spell this one out to me. In the "not-as-cool" idea about the Mafia, how would two know who the last one is, if it's a clockwise/counterclockwise pattern? Or if it comes down to three, how none could die? I figured if a -knows-> b -knows-> c -knows-> a, any of those two could still accidentally kill the third. In this formation, I can only see the Mafia members each only knowing one other living member, unless I'm missing some math here?

Before I go on trying to poke holes in this plan in case Xhin's a Mafia trying to string us along with faux logic - hezekiah, can the Distracted Doctor protect someone (VIP) indefinitely if the person they're protecting keeps being targeted?

February 25, 2015
Edit
Frustro

Yes

February 25, 2015
Edit
hezekiah

Alright, well for the VIP plan, the biggest pitfall I can imagine is if a Mafia member pretended to come out as the VIP alongside the actual VIP. If the deception is convincing enough, the town's faced with two possible VIPs. Obviously we couldn't choose from one of those two to lynch if the deception is too strong (likely, given how early in the game it is). If the town mislynches following the incorrect one's false lead, the downfall is that a round was wasted, and the Martyr (if even alive going from the plan to reveal when there's 3 Mafia left) will have to take the fall to protect the VIP. The town can then lynch the Mafia that claimed the VIP role the next round, but the only protection the VIP has left is the Distracted Doctor. Now this would be all fine and dandy if the Doctor's able to keep the VIP protected from here on, except the Mafia could simply go kill someone else on the night the Doctor's protecting the VIP, leaving the VIP wide open to being killed the night after. That's even assuming the good doctor survives up to this point. So in my head, it'd go like this:

Round A. VIP and Mafia member claim role; town kills Town-sided player

Round A night. Martyr protects VIP and dies

Round B: Kill the false-claiming Mafia member

Round B night. Distracted Doctor incorrectly protects VIP

Round C. Follow real VIP's list & kill mafia member

Round C night. Mafia kill VIP, LOSE AND CRY.

Another possibility I've considered is that the Mafia member claiming to be the VIP might actually have another Mafia member in their list who is then lynched by the town. This could have either been intentional or not on their part, but either way then we still have two people claiming to be the VIP in Round B. This would be a big problem because now the Doctor has to decide which one to protect, which is really just another issue thrown into the one already stated above.

And that's why I'm a fart-head who needs to shoot down every clever idea presented thank you for your time.

February 26, 2015
Edit
Frustro

Well, we're in a good position at the moment so we can afford to play it safe a little while longer I think...

February 26, 2015
Edit
EvilGuy0613

Alright, well for the VIP plan, the biggest pitfall I can imagine is if a Mafia member pretended to come out as the VIP alongside the actual VIP. If the deception is convincing enough, the town's faced with two possible VIPs. Obviously we couldn't choose from one of those two to lynch if the deception is too strong (likely, given how early in the game it is). If the town mislynches following the incorrect one's false lead, the downfall is that a round was wasted, and the Martyr (if even alive going from the plan to reveal when there's 3 Mafia left) will have to take the fall to protect the VIP. The town can then lynch the Mafia that claimed the VIP role the next round, but the only protection the VIP has left is the Distracted Doctor. Now this would be all fine and dandy if the Doctor's able to keep the VIP protected from here on, except the Mafia could simply go kill someone else on the night the Doctor's protecting the VIP, leaving the VIP wide open to being killed the night after. That's even assuming the good doctor survives up to this point. So in my head, it'd go like this:

Round A. VIP and Mafia member claim role; town kills Town-sided player

Round A night. Martyr protects VIP and dies

Round B: Kill the false-claiming Mafia member

Round B night. Distracted Doctor incorrectly protects VIP

Round C. Follow real VIP's list & kill mafia member

Round C night. Mafia kill VIP, LOSE AND CRY.

Another possibility I've considered is that the Mafia member claiming to be the VIP might actually have another Mafia member in their list who is then lynched by the town. This could have either been intentional or not on their part, but either way then we still have two people claiming to be the VIP in Round B. This would be a big problem because now the Doctor has to decide which one to protect, which is really just another issue thrown into the one already stated above.

And that's why I'm a fart-head who needs to shoot down every clever idea presented thank you for your time.



AAANNND that, ladies and gentlemen, is how you make me suspicious the quickest way possible.

February 26, 2015
Edit
Ghowilo

JK I still want to kill Hindenburg.

February 26, 2015
Edit
Ghowilo

haha, mafia killed their own XD
I like xhins plan, but until then...

February 26, 2015
Edit
Lightvayne

How could we mislynch? The VIP knows who all of the mafia are. Also in order for a mafia to take it to the end, they'd have to kill both the martyr and the doctor in successive night rounds.


Didn't think of that one.

However much we all want to kill Hindenburg, with the VIP in play, throwing votes around willy-nilly is the worst possible thing we could do. After all, Hindenburg could be the VIP, for all we know.

That said, Xhin's strategy does seem like our best shot.

February 26, 2015
Edit
Black Yoshi

Great, good job yoshi, now if Hindenburg is mafia he'll have a strategy to go on without any effort.

inb4 hindenburg claims to be VIP

February 26, 2015
Edit
Ghowilo

Claiming MVP this early sure would be utterly stupid, haha!

February 26, 2015
Edit
Speed Bike Pro
 

One problem I can see with the plan is that this could happen:

  • Doc protects VIP but Mafia don't attempt to kill him
  • Doc is forced to protect someone else on the following night
  • Mafia kill VIP since he's not protected

    • February 26, 2015
    Edit
    Jo Nathan

    Oh wait that's why we have martyrs. UGH that's what I get for hitting the "post" button before thinking!

    February 26, 2015
    Edit
    Jo Nathan

    The current mafia ratio allows for Jo's reasoning to happen, I think.

    I think it's pretty well established that if the mafia doesn't target the person the doctor is covering, they are free game.

    So...

    Round 1: VIP claim
    Round 1.5: Mafia kill ( 3 )
    Night 1: Doctor targets VIP
    Night 1.5: Mafia doesn't target VIP
    Round 2: Mafia kill ( 2 )
    Night 2: Mafia target VIP
    Night 2.5: Martyr save
    Day 3: Mafia kill ( 1 )
    Night 3: Mafia target VIP
    Night 3.5: Doctor save
    Day 4: Win for town

    The only problems I see with this is that perhaps the VIP isn't willing. Doctor isn't willing. Or perhaps the martyr isn't willing. The mafia could do something like:

    Day 1: False claim VIP
    Day 1.5: Mafia Kill (cause sacrificing seems right)
    Night 1: Mafia Kill (trying to hit something)
    Etc. Etc.

    If there is a false claim, it's unlikely the VIP will come forward.

    February 26, 2015
    Edit
    Helius

    If there is a false claim, it's unlikely the VIP will come forward.

    Why not? The real VIP can prove themselves with the correct mafia names. It would be kinda stupid for the Mafia member to fake being the VIP

    February 26, 2015
    Edit
    Lightvayne

    Agh, sorry for the inactivity, guys--I moved this past week so I've been busy, and I kept forgetting about this game. I'll try to be more active going forward as inactivity is pretty frustrating for me when I'm active. I'll hopefully have more to add later when I'm off of work.

    I do think we're generally advantaged in a game where the Mafia don't share a thread and neither know each other or can plan together, so I'm not sure we need to be hasty in having the VIP roleclaim. It's also worth noting that this makes a Mafia false-claim of VIP more difficult since the rest of the Mafia wouldn't know whether they were telling the truth or not (I guess until we kill one of their suggestions, in which case we simply kill the false VIP the next day).

    February 26, 2015
    Edit
    white lancer

    Well say...

    VIP Claim Townie-sided
    Mafia VIP Claim

    We have one Mafia member who knows 2 other Mafia members (if I read what hez said correctly) to keep the chain alive. We have a VIP who knows all members.

    If VIP came forward and claimed X, Y, Z, and Q are all members of the Mafia, then the Mafia VIP Claim can say X, Y, T, and R are all members as well. We won't know the difference between the two because X and Y will be positive for Mafia. This throws the saving plan off for a bit.

    Round 1: Mafia claim VIP
    Round 1.1: VIP claim
    Round 1.5: Mafia Kill ( 3 )
    Night 1: Mafia try to kill VIP
    Night 1.5: Martyr dies protecting VIP
    Round 2: Mafia claims Y
    Round 2.1: VIP claims Y
    Round 2.5: Mafia Kill ( 2 )
    Night 3: Mafia don't try killing VIP
    Night 3.5: Doctor tries to save VIP (fails)
    Round 4: VIP Claim
    Round 4.1: Mafia Claim
    Round 4.5: Mafia/Townie Kill (depending on how it goes)
    Night 5: Mafia kills VIP
    Game Over

    That's my concern with this strategy. Of course, this depends on how the Doctor and Martyr interact in the Night Priority list... which I may have missed?

    February 26, 2015
    Edit
    Helius

    Martyr takes precedence over Doctor, so if both choose the mafia's target the Martyr will die. Additionally, the Doctor can't save the the Martyr from his sacrifice. If the Martyr himself is targeted by the mafia, then the Doctor can save his life.

    February 26, 2015
    Edit
    hezekiah

    Whomever knew chief was Mafia now knows that someone else (whomever chief knew as Mafia) is Mafia. So, Person X knew of chief who knew of Person Y; therefore, Person X now knows Person Y is Mafia.

    February 26, 2015
    Edit
    Black Yoshi

    You sure are well informed on how the mafia works and strategies they should use Yoshi...

    February 26, 2015
    Edit
    Ghowilo

    maybe you should read the thread ghowilo and then you can be informed too!!!

    February 26, 2015
    Edit
    The Bandit

    That's too easy, more fun to figure it out as you go.

    February 26, 2015
    Edit
    Ghowilo

    But I understand your sentiment, and I'd like to say I count you among my friends here, I'll go back and read the rules I guess.

    February 26, 2015
    Edit
    Ghowilo

    I don't have much to add at this time. I think the VIP should keep a low profile for now and hope for the best.

    February 27, 2015
    Edit
    Lady Flare

    It's a shame chiefsonny died having left us no clues because the only post he made was to vote for Feral.

    I'm trying to consider who might be the most apt to vote to kill him on the first round. Granted, some of us, if we were Mafia, would want him gone because he's been a real threat to the Mafia in previous games, but I can't help but think that someone like Hindenburg and/or Speed would be more apt to kill off chief specifically during the first round.

    Withholding my vote for now.

    February 27, 2015
    Edit
    Jo Nathan

    poo poo pee pee

    haha

    doo doo dingle dee

    hoohoo

    (nme)

    February 27, 2015
    Edit
    Hindenburg
    Life's path is never straight.

    why, my peenus weanus of course :)

    hahah! :D

    it's my weeeeeeenus peanus! :) hahah

    February 27, 2015
    Edit
    Speed Bike Pro
     

    Yall n***as is gay.

    February 27, 2015
    Edit
    Ghowilo

    (hello)

    February 28, 2015
    Edit
    Jo Nathan

    such convo
    much intelganc
    vry halp
    wow

    {fp}

    February 28, 2015
    Edit
    Lightvayne

    jh

    February 28, 2015
    Edit
    The Bandit

    mmm I kinda feel what JN is saying, since nothing about chief on Day 1 really screamed "death to mafia" imo. Not exactly a strange target, but it feels a hint more likely than average I guess?

    February 28, 2015
    Edit
    Pirate_Ninja

    Yeah guys I don't have any ideas

    February 28, 2015
    Edit
    CtR Black

    Crazy thought: Hindenburg is Mafia, Bandit is Mafia and knows that Hindenburg is Mafia which is why he's no-killing with the hopes that whoever knows that Bandit is Mafia will follow suit before the round ends.

    Crazy I know and probably wrong but I guess we'll just find out. {duck}

    February 28, 2015
    Edit
    Jo Nathan

    Crosses fingers that Hindenburg isn't the VIP.

    February 28, 2015
    Edit
    Lady Flare

    I feel that the vote for Hindenburg might end badly for us? I don't know. It just seems like we got nothing to go on so we're just throwing votes around and hoping to hit something.

    February 28, 2015
    Edit
    Helius

    Night 2

    Ghowilo had had enough. Thinking about behavior in past lives, he decided Hindenburg was too much of a loose cannon to be left alone. Any other time he could've just asked for Hindenburg's badge, but there's no police presence inside the park. Too bad, maybe they could've prevent the death of a Townie.


    1) Speed Bike Pro
    2) Chaos Incarnate
    3) Ghowilo
    4) Feral Wolf - Townie
    5) Jo Nathan
    6) EvilGuy0613
    7) Lightvayne
    8) Helius
    9) white lancer
    10) Lady Flare
    11) The Bandit
    12) Female Alpha Wolf
    13) Frustro
    14) Pirate_Ninja
    15) Xhin
    16) chiefsonny - Mafioso
    17) CtR Black
    18) Black Yoshi
    19) Hindenburg - Townie

    4-12
    Mafioso x4
    VIP
    Martyr
    Governor
    Distracted Doctor
    Townie x8

    Night 2 will last for 24 hours or until all night actions are in.

    February 28, 2015
    Edit
    hezekiah

    This thread is locked