Nice and simple- nothing but our intuition here, boys and girls. This ought to be interesting.

DAY 1 NO KILL OR NAH???

That could go either way honestly. Either we shoot the enemy thanks to luck or shoot ourselves in the leg and have to lie to our platoon leader and say it was the enemy...

I'm gonna think out loud here...

Day 1 mis-lynch would put the ratio at 8:3
Night 1 kill = 7:3
Day 2 mis-lynch = 6:3
Night 2 kill = 5:3 and we no longer have a buffer - one more mis-lynch and we lose
Day 3 mis-lynch = 4:3
Night 3 kill = 3:3 and Mafia win


If we do a Day 1 no-kill, it would look like this:

Day 1 no-kill keeps ratio at 9:3
Night 1 kill = 8:3
Day 2 mis-lynch = 7:3
Night 2 kill = 6:3
Day 3 mis-lynch = 5:3
Night 3 kill = 4:3
Day 4 mis-lynch = 3:3 and Mafia win


Well. Since we would have to mis-lynch three times in a row to game-over either way, I would be in favor of a Day 1 no-kill if only to reduce the roster by 1 and increase our odds of hitting a Mafia.

Almost forgot

Good morning scumbags!

Have we ever done anything but a D1NK?

Jo, the current ratio is 6-3. Meaning we only need one mislynch if we D1NK for them to win.

And a mislynch combined with a Mafia night kill and we would be in deep do-do.

OOPS, I got my numbers mixed up......

D1NK is a terrible idea, IMO.

The usual strategy behind D1NK is that we don't have enough information to kill someone. And, in a typical game, we run the risk of accidentally outing or killing a town-aligned power role. A no kill allows the cop/watcher/whatever to at least gather some results for the next day.

But in this game we don't have any power roles. We quite literally gain nothing with a no kill, and we let the Mafia pick one of us off prematurely. We will have just as much information next round as we do this round.

I suggest we lynch someone via random vote.

Sound reasoning.

I feel Dooku is right. I see no benefit to wasting this round as we are not going to gain any info from any power roles. Unless Jo wants to take another shot to show his math prowess. It should be noted that, for now anyway, odds are in the mafia's favor.

Oh, hi!

I don't see what a random vote gets us really. With having no power roles, the entire point is to deduce who the Mafia is. It would be better to talk this out.

A random vote is no better than a mislynch in all honesty because there is no proof that the person is guilty. Its a shot in the dark. I'm against the d1nk and random vote at this time. At least playing it safe allows us to have an extra day like Jo Nathan pointed out (and no, I didn't do the math... I'm taking it at face value).

Given that the random vote generator seems to have it in for me, I'm opposed to listening to its advice!

Anyway, Thunder's got the math correct, so lynching someone today and tomorrow gives us the best chance of actually hitting a Mafia member. With a Traitor involved, there's a slight chance that the Mafia could accidentally hit one of their own, but we shouldn't bank on that happening. It's still more likely that we hit a Townie than a Mafia member if it's a completely random shot in the dark, but at least this way we get two shots in the dark rather than just one.

I'd rather the vote not be completely random, however. It's way too easy for the Mafia to blend in with a random vote, whereas if we vote based on intuition and an attempt to 'read' people, at least that'll give some amount of information on the people voting. Obviously it's never going to be as simple as 'this person voted for an innocent player, therefore they're Mafia,' but it's better than just random-voting twice.

I don't see what a random vote gets us really.

It's definitely a shot in the dark, but I'd rather trust RNG than go the "Jo Nathan started his first post this game with an N just like he did in Game 7 back in 2013 when he was Mafia" absurd suspicion approach. People aren't very talkative in these games lately and I don't think we're going to get any slip ups, particularly when neither side has a power role.

Given that the random vote generator seems to have it in for me, I'm opposed to listening to its advice!

You're kind of a pain in the ass when you're Mafia though... Might be worth the risk (catholic)

Revisiting Jo Nathan's math, I guess there might be some logic to seeing who dies Night 1 and trying to draw some conclusions.

Lets see what the RNG says first.

Oh, Nathan's math was wrong. Hmm.

If the traitor isn't officially with the Mafia does the game end at ratio? I'd assume they'd need to be in cahoots to coordinate the purge.

Well I have my doubts that the 2 Mafia members would support a Random Vote because they know who each other are.

Holy shit! This started yesterday?!? Okay, I'm back in Auburn now so I should be able to check this semi-frequently.

Hope this works out OK.

Well seems like it is what it is

Well not going to do that

Hrm

@Helius: I am kind of torn. On one hand we do not have that good of a chance to hit one of the mafia at this point. But if we do nothing, we are going to be in the same spot tomorrow with no new information and one of us in the ground. A shot in the dark is really all we have. I feel like this game is favored to the mafia because we have nothing to go off of. Although our odds will increase as the game goes on, I suppose.



Why wouldn't they? The chances of one of the two (really three, I think) getting majority of the votes are slim.

Yeah, I definitely think D1NK is a bad idea, although I'm also not a fan of the random vote. I mean, 33% odds are not great. And we might as well not use RNG because I can guess randomly on my own based on just a hunch and that should up my odds of guessing right by at least 1%. In this game every bit counts.

So I'm gonna do just that.

I'm just going to go ahead and say I'm suspicious of FAW, but I'm going to be putting my faith in RNGesus today.

Believe the round is over.