One thing is now obvious, the mafia doesn't know what it's doing.

I tried responding to these yesterday and got cut off when the thread locked.



I'm sorry, but the logic for lynching an alleged power role simply because they're as good as dead anyway is just baffling.



I'm going to go out on a limb and say the sudden massive vote changing happened because I revealed my role.

The only reason I can imagine for why Subdivisions is so adamant that The Trees isn't the Security Guard is because HE is the Security Guard.

If that's the case, you need to just come forward now. If The Trees is Mafia, then they know who you are. They aren't stupid. They didn't keep you alive last night because you're fooling them by staying quiet, they kept you alive because killing you would instantly blow The Trees' cover.

If you're not the Security Guard (and if no one else is willing to claim it), then we're not killing The Trees. There's no logic to that move at all.

I'm sorry, but the logic for lynching an alleged power role simply because they're as good as dead anyway is just baffling.

When they're also potentially mafia? I think not.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the sudden massive vote changing happened because I revealed my role.

Of course but was it because some of the mafia knew that they could get away with jumping off the bandwagon and save you?

The only reason I can imagine for why Subdivisions is so adamant that The Trees isn't the Security Guard is because HE is the Security Guard.

If that's the case, you need to just come forward now. If The Trees is Mafia, then they know who you are. They aren't stupid. They didn't keep you alive last night because you're fooling them by staying quiet, they kept you alive because killing you would instantly blow The Trees' cover.

There is so much wrong in this statement that I don't even know where to begin. I simply see no reason for the security guard to reveal for the reasons that I mentioned in the last thread. Plus Trees is still alive. Sure, Trees could be innocent and the mafia let Trees live figuring that the town would lynch them but it's still just as likely that Trees is mafia and the real security guard is keeping quiet so that they can live to protect another day which is their whole purpose. Let me tell you though, if I was the security guard I wouldn't be telling you. It makes no sense to. Granted Trees might of wanted to just save their neck last round, but as a role it makes no sense for the security guard to reveal. Either way, my pushing may have saved Trees if it made the mafia think that we would just lynch him this round. I'm still leaning towards Trees being mafia though.

I simply see no reason for the security guard to reveal for the reasons that I mentioned in the last thread.

Because the Town was voting for Trees pretty heavily. We've been over this.

but it's still just as likely that Trees is mafia and the real security guard is keeping quiet so that they can live to protect another day which is their whole purpose.

No it isn't.

Let me tell you though, if I was the security guard I wouldn't be telling you. It makes no sense to.

Then you're screwing over the entire Town in order to selfishly keep yourself alive.

but as a role it makes no sense for the security guard to reveal.

Is this your first time playing or something? When a town power role is about to be lynched, it is *very common* for them to reveal themselves, because its almost always worth trading one Town life for one Mafia life. I don't know if you've noticed, but we outnumber the Mafia pretty heavily. If we trade 1 for 1 every night, we win.

There is also the fact that The Trees wasn't committing suicide by revealing. We have two doctors. Not to mention the fact that I'm pretty sure there's no mentioned restriction on the Security Guard saving himself. Given the Security Guard's coma inducing powers, it would be an insane idea for the mafia to try and kill him after revealing because he's SO LIKELY to save himself.

You cannot be any more wrong on this issue. There are countless positive reasons for The Trees to reveal himself last round and very few negative ones, given the circumstances he was in. Now, given the circumstances the Town are in, there are countless negative reasons for the "real" Security Guard to keep to himself and absolutely no positive ones.

I don't care what role you are, potentially letting a mafia member lurk for days among the Town is not worth your own life. Never, ever, ever is it worth your own life. This is a team game. Play like a teammate.

This is how the Town loses games. In fact, I've had this exact same argument before, way back in one of the Star Wars themed games. Roxas was mafia, almost got lynched, and then claimed to be Vigilante. The real Vigilante kept to himself (despite the fact that that role can't be night killed) because he thought revealing his role would hurt the Town. We trusted Roxas' claim implicitly because, logically, we saw no reason for the real Vigilante to keep to himself. He led us straight to losing.

This situation is no different. The SG can't really be night killed as long as we have two doctors, and revealing his role is absolutely worth taking out a singular mafia member.

Because the Town was voting for Trees pretty heavily. We've been over this.

You wouldn't know that it was just the town unless you are mafia.

No it isn't.

From your point of view.

Then you're screwing over the entire Town in order to selfishly keep yourself alive.

Screwing the entire town? How so? The security guard's role is to save people, and he can not do that if he's not in the game anymore. The security guard would be doing the OPPOSITE by keeping himself alive.

Is this your first time playing or something?

No.

When a town power role is about to be lynched, it is *very common* for them to reveal themselves,

It is, but it doesn't make much sense and we have some new and rarely playing.

I don't know if you've noticed, but we outnumber the Mafia pretty heavily. If we trade 1 for 1 every night, we win.

So? If Trees really is the security guard, if not for my persisting Trees would have probably been lynched by the mafia by now. So either way my strategy worked. However there is still the possibility that trees is mafia- and if they're not, they will probably be lynched by the mafia this night.

There is also the fact that The Trees wasn't committing suicide by revealing.

If the mafia knows that someone is a power role, they WILL want them out of the away right away. So yes, unless they THOUGHT that the town was going to lynch Trees next round, they would likely put Trees down. They have nothing to lose from it.

We have two doctors.

Fair point but who is to say that you can rely on them? Doctors have bumbled like that before in past games.

Not to mention the fact that I'm pretty sure there's no mentioned restriction on the Security Guard saving himself.

Technicality that I don't think Xhin actually meant to be allowed. He would probably clarify that they can't.

You cannot be any more wrong on this issue.

I would say this to you but you could be more wrong.

There are countless positive reasons for The Trees to reveal himself last round and very few negative ones, given the circumstances he was in. Now, given the circumstances the Town are in, there are countless negative reasons for the "real" Security Guard to keep to himself and absolutely no positive ones.

Or Trees is a mafia ensuring that the doctor and the shaman will save him no matter what.

I'll hold on on Trees for now however.

As of now, I believe Trees's claim. And that's about all I can figure out right now, y'all argue back and forth way too much.

I feel like it'd be easier to keep track of who's who in-game by using our account names jumbled up, as opposed to these "themed" names. Still preferable to our actual names, but there's still room for improvement. Good job Xhinnykins.

I don't see the flaw in Trees claim. He was a goner, any power role in that situation would have told the truth to save themself.

Regardless, if Trees isn't the guard it will come out possibly today or in the next couple of rounds.

Chaotic stupid strategy ho. So who should we lynch now? Or are we just going to go no kill again?

I would like to say one more thing and then I'll drop this issue because we need to talk about today. If you are the real SG (or if he's reading this) then it is *critical* that you role claim. We can lynch The Trees straight away and get one confirmed kill, you can save yourself tonight (especially true because no one has claimed to be beaten up) and/or trust the Doctor to do it for you, and then tomorrow we can examine who hesitated in voting for The Trees and probably discover more mafia. There are so many more benefits to revealing yourself than keeping quiet. We would instantly have somewhere significant to look for the rest of the game instead of being in the dark for who knows how long.

---

As far as voting, I think we have to kill someone. If someone had claimed to be beaten up, I'd actually be fine with no killing, because we'd potentially have a ton of info tomorrow, but it looks like the Enforcer wised up. Either he's stopped acting completely or he's targeted an inactive player.

The only place I can think to start is looking at the votes from the last round. I think The Trees is more likely to be innocent than not because we lack a counter claim, so I think the best place to start is who voted for The Trees. Those players are:




Xanadu is dead so scratch him off. YYZ has claimed Roommate and that he got beaten up, so scratch him as well. I'm also *okay* with scratching off Subdivisions, at least for right now. I find it hard to believe that a mafia would argue that hard to lynch a claimed power role, but who knows. That leaves:


Jacob's Ladder
La Villa Strangiato
2112
Farewell to Kings
Passage to Bangkok
By-Tor
Limelight

I think we should kill one of these guys. A few things jumped out to me:

1. Limelight voted for The Trees *after* The Trees claimed SG. He could have missed the claim, but he never changed his vote. There were still a lot of votes on The Trees, but not close enough to the 14 required to end, and it was still several hours before the round ended. It's notable, but I don't think it's enough to lynch him.

2. Passage to Bangkok and By-Tor took their vote off The Trees and changed it to Not Voting, and neither one of them changed it to anything else. I'm pretty sure Not Voting removes you from the voting pool. It's not the same as a No Kill. There were still several votes on The Trees, and even though they took their votes off The Trees, removing players from the voting pool does help push him closer to being lynched.

I'm not sure if I'm right on that though, or if it's something the hosts ever pay attention to. Please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

3. 2112 made the vote that switched the majority from The Trees to Tom Sawyer. He was also a somewhat late vote for the The Trees (like the 5th or 6th person to vote IIRC), so I think this is the most significant piece of info we have. If The Trees is the SG, then 2112 basically just confirmed that we would lynch an innocent last round. If The Trees is mafia, then he could have made a late vote for his teammate to avoid suspicion, then switched it later to save his buddy at the last minute.

From my point of view, 2112 is the best choice we have today. I'll be the first to admit that this is not rock solid at all, and I'm open to any other argument. However, voting for 2112 has some added benefits: if 2112 IS guilty, then we can take a closer look at The Trees without an SG counter claim. If he's innocent, then it makes The Trees look slightly more innocent as well.

Dang, I fucked my post up. Doesn't really matter as I didn't need two lists anyway. Just add Xanadu, YYZ, and Subdivisions to make the first list accurate.

HELLO THIS IS GROWLITHE/GHOWILO/YYZ! I wanted to jump in and let y'all know that I'm going to be a little bit distant for the next few days. I have to build a CD-ROM examiner by Tuesday and I'm stressing tfo. Anyways, I've read over the posts today. I agree that Subdivisions is probably innocent. For the time being, I don't mind jumping on to kill 2112.

I never liked the trinary number system anyways

I WILL CHECK BACK SOME TIME TOMORROW BEFORE 9PM AND ADJUST MY VOTE ACCORDING TO WHAT HAPPENS IN THIS THREAD. PLEASE DON'T CONSIDER MY PERMANENT VOTE

consider this* to* be* my permanent vote.

It does seem like the best and quickest course of action right now.

I'm traveling from new Orleans to Dallas today with an ETA of ~10pm sorry just wanted to let you guys know

Wait, what?


I checked in, read through the topic, and a bunch of votes had been thrown around between two players. With nothing further to go on, I made a choice between thw two options being discussed - and since The Trees hadn't said a word to explain himself yet, I mentioned that I was open to hearing his side. When I checked back later, he had roleclaimed security guard, so I did the sensible thing and took my vote off him. Either the new popular target (Tom Sawyer) or no kill would have done the job, but since people seemed to be in agreement on Tom I just went along with it. Like I said, I didn't bother trying to count the current votes at the time because it's a pain.

If The Trees is the SG, then I confirmed that we would lynch a Townie INSTEAD OF OUR SECURITY GUARD. How is that a bad thing? Lynching a mafia member would be preferable, of course, but we don't have solid proof of any. When either one could be mafia and the choice is between someone who isn't participating and someone who's claiming to be a critical power role, that seems like a really bad time to call his bluff.

It's actually not true either way, because I wasn't the last person to vote for Tom Sawyer and he would have had the most votes even if I hadn't changed.


This isn't what happened either, but at least I can follow the logic here. Straightforward mafia-blending-in sort of stuff.

I'd like to look back at the votes in a bit myself and see if anything strikes me, but I wanted to get this out there now because I'm not mafia and your vote doesn't seem like it makes sense.

Okay I am here finally.

With the lack of counterclaim, I think we can trust The Trees' reveal of being the SG. Unless we just have a hella stubborn SG... I also wouldn't be opposed to voting for 2112 but that's mostly because I don't want to No Kill and there's.... not really much else to go on which is just awful.

If The Trees is the SG, then I confirmed that we would lynch a Townie INSTEAD OF OUR SECURITY GUARD. How is that a bad thing?

Right, I'm looking at this as if you were a mafia member. From your perspective, you might have not cared who we lynched, as long as it wasn't a mafia member.

It's actually not true either way, because I wasn't the last person to vote for Tom Sawyer and he would have had the most votes even if I hadn't changed.

You wouldn't have known this at the time, though. If you were counting the votes, you would have known exactly what you were doing.

I'm more than happy to look at any other target. I'm not perfect and I can easily be making a mistake, but I did spend a lot of time looking over the last round and this is the only significant thing that stuck out to me. In the lack of a better lynch target (actually, we currently don't have *any* other suggestion), I'm going to stick with this.

I don't mind killing 2112, but my only problem with Spirit's argument is

2112 made the vote that switched the majority from The Trees to Tom Sawyer.

I'm (and presumably most everyone else) is still working under the assumption that Trees is the security guard. The tally at this point was dead even. I don't think a mafia would make the switch to kill an unknown townie when they were on the verge of killing someone who was claiming security guard.

I'll agree with Spirit that we need the guard to reveal sometime soon if Trees isn't guard, preferably in the next hours.

The security guard revealing himself is a bad idea anyway. If the BG reveals himself and gets whacked then we have no BG. Which role is tasked with protecting the protector in this game?

The 3 people who have voted so far have been

Subdivisions
Spirit of Radio
YYZ

...and their votes were all in quick succession (within 3 hours of eachother March 27th)

I find that remotely suspicious, by bandwagon standers, when nobody else has voted since.

If The Trees is whacked and is indeed a villie, we should hold those who elected him to the chopping block under a magnifying glass.

Of course, if I get offed because of that statement, it would cast suspicion on Sub, Spirit, and YYZ, and if they are innocent we would only be expending time investigating them.

I claimed to be beaten up and no one counter claimed. YYZ claimed Roommate AND that he got beaten up and no one counter claimed. Looking at either of us at this point is a waste of time.

Which role is tasked with protecting the protector in this game?

The Doctor.

I still strongly maintain that the real security guard coming forward is the best strategy by a lot.

Would you have any objection to being investigated Spirit?

I also noticed in the last 2 days that you were the first person to cast a vote against others.

Can you tell us how the SG coming forth would be the best strategy? Because the Doctor might not be convinced at such a claim this early in, and he may not jump to protect the first claimant.

I claimed to be beaten up and no one counter claimed. YYZ claimed Roommate AND that he got beaten up and no one counter claimed.

Well if that's the facts then that's the facts I guess.

So you start from the conclusion that I'm mafia and work back to the evidence that I would be fine saving the town power role that is the biggest threat to the mafia.

If you think lynching me is going to tell you something of value, so be it. I'd rather not die for the sake of an experiment.

Of course, if I get offed because of that statement, it would cast suspicion on Sub, Spirit, and YYZ, and if they are innocent we would only be expending time investigating them.

I'm pretty sure that's what would happen yes. considering I'm 100% sure two of us are innocent and 55% sure 3 of us are.

...I have no idea what to do...

Same...

Can you tell us how the SG coming forth would be the best strategy? Because the Doctor might not be convinced at such a claim this early in, and he may not jump to protect the first claimant.

I already have. Multiple times. But sure:

-It would give us a confirmed kill on The Trees.
-It would give us solid information on who next to kill by examining who didn't want to vote for The Trees last round.
-It would not seriously endanger the Town this round. No one has claimed to be beaten up, so the SG would have no need to protect anyone other than himself tonight. In future rounds, after we've killed The Trees and exposed him, the Doctor would have no reason to not believe the SG's claim and could safely protect him, leaving the SG to protect any beaten up victims.

There are nearly no downsides to the SG claiming as long as we have a Doctor alive. Even though I've explained the above already, I've yet to see anyone who disagrees with me offer a single negative to an SG claim.

Would you have any objection to being investigated Spirit?

I object to it because I know I'm innocent, so I know it would be a waste of an action. If the Cop/the rest of the Town thinks I'm guilty, I'd advise just lynching me and discovering that way (I'm a Townie and losing me won't hurt the Town much at all). If he's really unsure, then yeah, I guess go ahead and check me, but remember, I did claim to be beaten up. It's obviously possible that the Enforcer didn't act on the night I claimed and that I'm mafia lying, but of the three people who have claimed to be beaten up, we know two of them weren't lying. Xanadu was a Townie and YYZ is the most innocent looking person the Town has.

I also noticed in the last 2 days that you were the first person to cast a vote against others.

Yep. I like lynching. We actually can't win if we don't lynch, so lynching is generally preferable to not lynching. Mafia is a game of incomplete information. One of the best ways to gain information is by lynching.

But, besides the fact that I'm a homicidal maniac, look at who I decided to vote for and why. I think my logic yesterday was bullet proof. It wasn't my fault that Xhin chose to not enforce his own rules. It was entirely possible that Jacob's Ladder could have been innocent had Xhin been host killing, but, given the circumstances, he was the best target. Today, I decided to act because no one else was doing anything. If I had not posted, where would the Town be right now? No one's offered an alternative to lynching 2112. Are we just going to stand here and hope a mafia member kindly tells us that he's guilty, or are we going to "experiment" and try to find out who's guilty ourselves?

I've been busy so it's hard for me to keep up here.

I'm not entirely sure which way to sway, but considering there's only 3 hours left, I'll do my best to make a decision.

I agree with the idea of the SG straight up role claiming, because yes, it puts a high power role at risk, but also it will clear up the situation with Trees. I can't say for sure I believe the Trees' claim, but with a role claim for SG, that will at least help straighten that mess up.

I'm thinking about what was said before, when it was Trees against Jacob's Ladder. Any suggestions on that?


We *are* getting no where by not lynching, but I'll wait until 9 to make a decisive vote.

For now-

2112 hasn't really claimed to be anything (I figure a mafia would try to claim a power role, but then again they may not because it would seem fishy after Trees just did last round).

However, the cop who's supposedly to be able to check through the day round hasn't said anything either. So this leads me to believe that 2112 is either an insignificant role, or a mafia. Because the cop wouldn't want to expose himself just to save a townie, and they also wouldn't want to expose themselves to expose someone we already were leaning towards lynching anyway.

No one has really made any meaningful attempt to go against it except 2112, which means that if he is mafia, the other mafia members are sacrificing him to save themselves.

I think now that odds are slightly in favor of him being a townie but I'm not sure. I might try to tip the scales against him a little later.

Gut feeling.

Here goes nothing

I think I'm content with this decision over making it a tie.