Mafia

Crap! That was pretty much the worst-case scenario, and it pretty much means we're going to have to get it right today. Zanic told me last night (after the day round ended) that he has a Candy of Invincibility, so if we choose to lynch him he'll survive the first attempt. That means that killing both Serpe and Zanic is no longer an option.

I'm leaning towards Serpe for my vote, but I'm going to wait to see if there are any X-Ray Candy results. I have to take off for now, but when I get back I'll try to look at Serpe and Zanic's past actions for anything suspicious.

On the plus side, I got my X-Ray results for Bandit and I can confirm that he is guilty.

Um, Bandit's dead. {:P}

I got nothing to report, unfortunately.

@lancer I was afraid that you'd say that after my comments from last round were misinterpreted. Now isn't the time to narrow the suspect pool down to 2. That you're playing aggressively again is rubbing me the wrong way. Usually that's the mark of a player with something to hide.

But that Zanic told you about his invincibility and the fact that chief conveniently dies after refusing to rule him out is making me reconsider my original declaration of innocence, especially with all the mixed signals Helius was giving.

White Thunder is still on the table as well. I don't know about you guys, but with hezekiah gone Jo is the only person I feel safe getting an X-Ray candy verdict from. Anybody else at this point, myself included, should be considered as operating with a bias if they claim an X-Ray. This lone Skeleton could easily fake a claim and lead us on a hunt for the wrong person.

Actually lancer, after rereading your comment, I'm REALLY getting a bad vibe from you. You said that you were going to look back at Zanic and myself for suspicious actions because you hadn't yet.

"killing both Serpe and Zanic is no longer an option"

That means that even without having evidence against us, you entered this round with a plan to turn the Town against the two of us, thinking that they would get it right eventually. Like I said before, 2 bad calls and 1 bad night will tie the numbers and cost us the game. And that's not counting the possbility of someone being poisoned. That kind of blind shooting really makes me wonder what your motives are.

Why the hell won't anyone kill me before the end of these games? I don't want to keep being one of the deciders. MY TRACK RECORD IS NOT GOOD.

At any rate, I think Serpe came into this round knowing there was a good chance that he'd be lynched and I think he's trying a bit too hard to off lancer, so I'm voting for Serpe.

@Jo Me? I'm just trying to make up for past inactivity. {:P}

And it's on the contrary. I'm not trying to have lancer killed. I'm trying to prevent the mistake of the opposite. I mentioned Thunder and Zanic as well to imply that nobody's a saint here.

If you want my suggestion, it would be to not vote or to vote for Zanic. If we voted for Zanic, he won't die due to his candy and we have a level playing field for the next day round. But if I'm killed and the last Skeleton roams free in the upcoming night, that's two dead Townies. Three if someone is poisoned. Those are odds I don't like. And even you said that I've helped narrow down the list of suspects too much to be a Skeleton (at least one with common sense).

As I said, my track record is less than stellar. I will retract my vote for now, but this round is going to be a crucial one for sure.

To be honest, you're still my prime suspect, but I am waiting to hear back from anyone who might have X-Ray results.

Definitely leaning towards Serpe. I guess we didn't get any X-Ray candies unless Zanic had one.

I'd like to think that after getting Bandit out yesterday you guys are more likely to think of me as innocent.

@Jo Fair enough. But truth be told, I'd just like to see the end of a round with my team. If votes go in my direction, the Town should lynch me for what I did, not what I might be doing. Just take a look at my voting record (sparse as it is). We're better off waiting than being trigger happy and shooting ourselves in the foot.

@Thunder Like I said, it's risky giving credence to X-Ray claims with 4 different suspects. And while you're not a prime suspect on lancer's or my list, he didn't rule you out because, like he said when Helius died, a Skeleton benefits from having nobody to tie with.

@Serpe: I explained my rationale for narrowing it down to the two of you last round. I would like to know why exactly narrowing the suspect pool to two is a bad thing. As I said before, Thunder's not guaranteed innocent, but him bringing down Bandit last round puts him enough in the clear in my mind that I'm not going to consider voting for him this round unless we get an X-Ray Candy result against him.

I don't know about you guys, but with hezekiah gone Jo is the only person I feel safe getting an X-Ray candy verdict from. Anybody else at this point, myself included, should be considered as operating with a bias if they claim an X-Ray. This lone Skeleton could easily fake a claim and lead us on a hunt for the wrong person.

To the contrary, we can trust any X-Ray Candy result we get, aside from maybe Zanic with a Guilty verdict. If anyone has an innocent verdict, then we can automatically rule the innocent player out as there is only one Skeleton left. If anyone comes up with a Guilty verdict, we can be sure they're not lying because it would be suicidal to come up with a wrong claim. The reason Zanic is an exception is because his Invincibility means that if he's a Skeleton, any miskill means that he wins.

And JN, you may think your track record is less than stellar, but I think you just might have hit the nail on the head with this one. It's not just me; Serpe was very careful to point out that there are plenty of targets (read: plenty of options to vote off instead of him). I'm almost ready to cast my vote for him, but since this is an important round I want to go back through and read his posts again first.

"I would like to know why exactly narrowing the suspect pool to two is a bad thing"

Because you've ruled out yourself, just like you did previously until chief called you out on it. When your first post for this round can be boiled down to "Now we can't kill two people I haven't fully finished researching," you'll have to forgive me when I see your aggressive play as alarming. Blind shooting harms us just as much as a Skeleton can, and the time being used to go after me could be used for planning that'll help us.

Your words on Day 5 were "Heck, with Helius it's even possible that he's throwing himself under the bus so that there's no possibility that the last Skeleton could tie the votes." Last round, you changed your tune and said "There's a distant chance of it being Thunder, but I doubt a Skeleton would throw another under the bus with the ratio being what it is right now..." Your own logic is why White Thunder is still on your list at all.

Your willingness to discount Thunder for voting for Bandit when I used a double vote I didn't have to for the exact same purpose confuses me. That I voted for CtR, backed off Helius, and helped lynch Bandit because I agreed with you all should make my stance clear.

At this point I wouldn't count any past motion to take out a skeleton as proof of innocence. In the last game I almost did it to every single one of my teammates and gosh darn it if it wouldn't have sealed the deal for me if I followed through with CtR.

I think that's fair to say. We've all had different motives for killing people.

white lancer, you summed it up best yourself. If Zanic were a Skeleton, a miskill is his victory. There's nothing stopping any of us from being that miskill, which is why I suggested we cool off for this round. My cautiousness shouldn't be interpreted as guilt. Since you're actively looking for reasons to kill me, look at my posts. I'm cautious for good reason, as this situation shows .

Why would I put myself on my own suspect list? I know I'm innocent, even if the rest of you (save one) don't. If you'll go back and read all my posts, you'll find that I've been nothing if not active in trying to figure out who the remaining Skeletons are. It's interesting to me that you bring up Bandit and CtR, because as I was reading back at your previous posts it jumped out at me that you were very reluctant to vote either of them (even with Thunder's Guilty result on Bandit) and you only cast your votes the way you did when they were pretty much doomed anyway.

The Helius thing was based mostly on Helius being Helius (he's a bit eccentric and plays with some unique strategies). I don't think Thunder is as likely to go down that route, especially since there's a big difference between throwing yourself under the bus to help your team and throwing someone else under the bus needlessly without their consent. Also, Thunder's posts in general have been less suspicious to me for some time now and he was already low on my suspect list (at the very least, lower than you and Zanic).

At this point I'm almost convinced Serpe is the last Skeleton. The only thing that's holding me back from voting for him is that it would be a little safer to vote Zanic and hope for an X-Ray Candy result on someone, to keep all of our voting options open. That would screw JN over, though, since he's almost guaranteed to die tonight, and if I'm right he'd survive the game if we voted Serpe.

I wouldn't consider asking "Are you sure about that?" to be "very" reluctant. Since I'm not the type for confirmation bias, you'll also notice that Jo wasn't 100% sure about CtR either, and that you've had it out for me for several rounds now for reasons ranging from inactivity to the way I said something. Again, caution isn't guilt.

You're claiming that you're "almost" certain I'm the one to go after, but that means you haven't ruled out Zanic. If you were so certain, you wouldn't feel the need to kill both of us. That's just being trigger happy. So why not take your own advice and have a round, wait for an X-Ray candy, and have a round where nobody has to die? We'll still have enough Townies to vote for the Skeleton.

*take your own advice, wait for an X-Ray candy, and have a round where nobody has to die?

Sorry I've been inactive. After reviewing all that's been said, I'm thinking it's Serpe. Thunder is on my list also. The only person I'm ruling out is JN. And yes, I have a candy of invincibility, but I highly suggest we take out Serpe.

The only problem is that if Zanic is the last Skeleton and we lynch a townie today the game is over.

Because I think we can probably end the game this round, that's why! Pretty much everything you've said this round just screams 'I'm trying to survive to the next round by whatever means necessary.' And I wasn't saying that reluctance to vote CtR (and you were reluctant--your voting post was as follows: "I guess it can't be helped...although CtR's going after Xhin gives him enough potential to be innocent in my mind, I'll go with the majority on this one.") was damning, as I wasn't 100% sure either, but you trying to use that as a point in your favor is what has me on edge about that. And you questioning Thunder's guilty verdict on Bandit is definitely suspicious to me.

And yeah, I've had you on my target list for several rounds now. You know who else was on my list for several rounds? CtR Black, and guess what happened with that. ;) That being said, it's very possible that I'm too convinced in my own mind to consider alternatives, so if I'm just being crazy and someone else isn't seeing what I'm seeing, please speak up. I'm in the opposite position to JN in that I don't think I've ever been alive long enough to be the 'decider,' and I don't want to screw it up.

I really wish Zanic didn't have that Invincibility Candy, because if he didn't my choice this round would be very clear. As it is, I'm torn between wanting to end this game now and wanting to play it a little safer.

The only problem is that if Zanic is the last Skeleton and we lynch a townie today the game is over.

Exactly my dilemma.

With Zanic, I just keep going back to the first round where he practically leaped at the chance to be checked with X-Ray Candy. That's why I've considered him more likely innocent than not for this entire game. Also, when he's been Mafia before I've thought he was pretty obvious, so if he's a Skeleton this time around I think he's doing a much better job at playing innocent. He also didn't need to volunteer to me that he had the Invincibility Candy, but that's not airtight proof since he didn't have any way to know that two people would die last night (and we would have had time to both break his Candy and vote someone else out if only one person had died). But, again, not voting him out now is a risk because if he is guilty, we're screwed unless one of his night targets has an invincibility candy.

I'm trying to survive to the end of the game, not just the round, to see the Trick-or-Treaters win. That's what we're all doing, save one. But suggestions like throwing Zanic and I into a boiling furnace are making that difficult to do. My voicing what both you and Jo had said about CtR prior to my entrance is an odd definition of "damning". And if you're using your pursuit of him as a point to support your instincts, then Jo should have been a dead Skeleton in Round 1. <_<

I'll make it clear again that I know where my stance lies, which is why I'm confident enough to continue listing myself as a suspect. If you're hellbent on having me lynched to make the game go more quickly, by all means do it during a round where the consequences of a miskill aren't so severe. Regardless of how you feel about my innocence, haste makes waste.

Is it possible that he lied to you about having the Invincibility Candy to stop us from voting for him?

Oh, I'm well aware I screwed up with Jo, which is partly why I'm second-guessing myself so much this round. I'm just pointing out that me having you on my hitlist for a couple of rounds is by no means a point in your favor. Note that I said that your voting for CtR WASN'T necessarily damning (I realize it's difficult to tell sometimes because my sentences are often overly complex and laced with unnecessary parentheticals), but your using it as support for your innocence is just strange.

I don't know why you're so fixated on the whole 'throwing you and Zanic into the fire' thing. My very first post this round was pointing out that that was no longer an option. I do think that would be my course of action if it were still a possibility, but it's not so it's moot--I'm going to have to decide between voting for you and voting for Zanic, when it comes down to it now.

The question for me is whether waiting one round will change anything. It won't narrow down the possibilities any, because unless Jo has an Invincibility Candy of his own he's going down. There is the chance of an X-Ray Candy surfacing, but I know I don't have one, and it will be harder to trust any Guilty results next time. I know I wouldn't trust either Zanic or Serpe's vetting of someone, and since any miskill next round would result in a Town loss even Thunder's check would be a little suspect (though I would probably go along with it anyway, since I've basically decided to trust Thunder over Serpe or Zanic at this point). That being said, any innocent check would still be trustworthy (so I would suggest investigating Zanic as the less suspicious of the two).

Bah, so conflicted. I really think that waiting one round wouldn't be all that beneficial for us, as at this point the only thing that would change my vote from Serpe is a Guilty verdict on someone else (or an Innocent verdict on him). There's still a chance that it would be, though, and since I think I've been playing fairly well so far (JN notwithstanding) I would hate to screw it up right here at the end. If we're going to kill Serpe over Zanic anyway it would be more beneficial to do it this round, because we'd still have time for one more kill (but not Zanic) the next round. I honestly don't think it would come to that, though.

Is it possible that he lied to you about having the Invincibility Candy to stop us from voting for him?

Anything's possible, but I doubt it. For one, that doesn't seem like a trick Zanic would pull, and for another, he seemed sincere when he said it. Plus there's only been one Invincibility Candy out there that we know of, so it seems very plausible that someone else has one. I know I don't.

Meant to add: if you're really concerned about Zanic having lied about that, we could test that this round. I'm just mostly convinced that he's telling the truth, about that at least.

Oh, I was agreeing with you about the statement not being damning. I probably should have emphasized it like "IS an odd definition". And I think there's been some miscommunication. I never said that my doubt of CtR was evidence of my innocence. I'm saying that my willingness to second-guess the popular vote isn't evidence of my guilt.

"I don't know why you're so fixated on the whole 'throwing you and Zanic into the fire' thing."

"I do think that would be my course of action if it were still a possibility"

I think that you answered your own question there. I'm not highlighting that for no reason. I'm doing it to say that, while you had good instincts concerning CtR, you're gut feeling isn't perfect. That you're conflicted at this point in the game is a reason for your judgment of me to be scrutinized. If your final plan really WAS to have both of us killed and hope for the best, then you'd have to extend the game an extra day round for that second kill regardless. So I'm not sure why you're opposed to waiting this round out.

Now's probably as good a time as any to go back to my original suggestion, which was to vote for Zanic this round.

Before you say that I'm using him for some ulterior motive, hear me out. Zanic essentially has two lives. white lancer, you just said that you're so convinced that I'm guilty that only an X-Ray verdict from people you don't even trust would change your mind. If I'm lynched only to have the game go on, by your logic Zanic takes precedence over White Thunder. By the time that act of God convinces you that I'm innocent, you could only chip away at one of Zanic's lives in the day round before he closes the game in the night round after next. Right now, you're considering bypassing that margin of error to go after me because I'm supposedly just that guilty (but if that was the case, why are you still considering Zanic at all?). And that's not the mark of a strategy that'll save the Town.

There's also the second scenario that White Thunder just brought up. If Zanic is lying about his candy, then he gets his just desserts by a vote this round. If he's telling the truth, then that's just evening out the playing field for you to vote for one of us with 100% certainty next round.

That I voted for CtR, backed off Helius, and helped lynch Bandit because I agreed with you all should make my stance clear.

That looks like an attempt to use your votes for CtR and Bandit as evidence in your favor to me. And I'm not seeing the connection between my plan to target you and Zanic and my admittedly less than perfect gut instincts. Also, you're misreading my plan. My plan was to kill you and rejoice as the game ended, and on the off chance that I was wrong kill the other most likely suspect (Zanic) next. I really didn't expect it to go past this round because I was about 75% convinced the last one was you. Now that number is pushing 90%. The reason I don't want to wait another round is because I'm not sure I've ever been so convinced about someone's guilt (other than when it's been explicitly confirmed) and because I don't think waiting another round will do much other than give you a chance to try to weasel your way out of this again. I'm second-guessing myself a lot, but only because it's a big vote; if hezy hadn't died or Zanic didn't have the Candy, I wouldn't even have hesitated this long.

Screw it, I'm voting for Serpe. Feel free to outvote me if you wish, but if Serpe really is innocent he's done a great job at making himself appear suspicious.

Oh, and if Zanic really is lying about the Invincibility Candy, we can vote him out just as easily next round as we could this round.

So, let me get this straight. You're basing your statistic of 90% guilt on circumstantial evidence not specific to me, doing a full reversal of the logic you applied to Helius's actions at the last minute as if you never said it, not seeing the irony of uncertain gut instincts, and expecting the vote of someone you openly admitted to wanting to kill if I didn't work out?

If we're going to kill Serpe over Zanic anyway it would be more beneficial to do it this round, because we'd still have time for one more kill (but not Zanic) the next round. I honestly don't think it would come to that, though.

Then it would just be me you and Zanic left and it would come down to Zanic voting for one of us to decide. Unless Zanic is the last skeleton at which point he could vote for either one of us and it wouldn't matter. I still think Serpe is Skeleton but I'm starting to think we should vote for Zanic today to be sure.

Serpe didn't trick or treat last night. Due to him pretty much being active lately this says to me that it was intentional. I feel like if he were innocent he'd risk being poisioned or something for a chance to get an X-Ray for the team, but as the last skeleton he would have no need for X-Ray but every need to avoid those poisions.

I pray I am not wrong, but here we go...

Then it would just be me you and Zanic left and it would come down to Zanic voting for one of us to decide. Unless Zanic is the last skeleton at which point he could vote for either one of us and it wouldn't matter. I still think Serpe is Skeleton but I'm starting to think we should vote for Zanic today to be sure.

The point that I was making was that even if we voted Zanic today, we'd still in all likelihood be facing the exact same choice tomorrow. As it is, I'm second-guessing myself enough to give me headaches, and I'd rather get the choice out of the way now for the sake of my mental health. With Zanic having that Invincibility, we can't vote both of them out, so there is no being sure anyway.

Anyway, the round is over. Hoping the game is over along with it.

In case Serpe is innocent and I die during the night, don't rule out lancer. Rethink everything that Serpe has said about him. I just really doubt it would be Zanic though so if Serpe is innocent I feel it would have to be between the two whities.

So it ends, I guess.

Just a note on that, Jo: if I were the last Skeleton, there were way easier ways for me to get past this round than shoving myself into the spotlight and picking a fight with Serpe. I could have simply voted against Zanic and left myself with two people in the next round who were more likely to get the votes than me, practically ensuring my survival and victory. Or I could have simply not revealed Zanic's Invincibility Candy and pushed to get rid of the two of them back-to-back anyway--I doubt Zanic would have noticed or cared.

Alright. Here we go.

Well look at that, it's official now - the banner at the top says "Game OVER" and I didn't die at the end. {:P}