Mafia

*crickets*

Still think it's Ninja. Black Yoshi voted #85 last round, so maybe PN is trying to get us to lynch #85. Other option is that it is #85 and he is laughing at us right now after surviving another round.
Either way, one of those two or Jo.

Really think Chief is innocent at this point. Igga is a given since White Lancer said he would host kill him, and I doubt he would do that to the mafia.

black mama luigi...tell bedtime story... D:


murdering the one person who kept me alive last round would be quite a risk, especially given that I'm away from home for a week (unrelated: lol @ the giant post-entry box that mobile gtx0 gives me). Be a peach and quit trying to lynch me, yeah? It won't get you anywhere but another step closer to a town loss.

I was curious whether the mafia would target one side of that little standoff or just off a fence-sitter and leave things in that precarious balance...what a tease~

I really wouldn't be surprised if it's any of you, but I still think #85 is our best bet. I wish I had cast my vote for him when I had the chance last round. {fp} Even if he turned out innocent, we'd be in a better position to narrow it down right now.

I plan on going back to the beginning of the game and reading every post, every response, every action and every lynching, all while telling myself that #85 is Mafia. Along the way, I will keep asking myself "how plausible is this?" When I finish, I'll repeat that process with each of the other remaining players.

This will take a while....

Ok, I'll do this in parts because it'll be waaaaay to much info for a single post.


Day 1

Some things I noticed about Bubba.

Apollo said this:


...And Bubba responded thusly:


His suggestion to go by LLight's statistics could be an indication of innocence.


LLight stated that it wouldn't be plausible for townies to refresh the Mafia page so frequently during Night rounds, and Bubba responded:



Could he be fishing for an answer to a concern of his because he's worried his teammates might be exposed?

---------------------------------

Ok, now onto #85.



This has already been discussed. Attempt at reverse psychology? Maybe he didn't imagine he would last this long into the game and didn't think this would come back to haunt him.


Then there's this:



Roxas:


#85:


Roxas:



Roxas posted some hard evidence against #85:




This was a valid point, and who knows Roxas may be rolling in his grave in the dead thread over the fact that we aren't being more vigilant at voting #85 off.


----------------------------------


Ok, chiefsonny time.



Indignant that someone is using a tool that could compromise his team's ability to function?


LLight:


chief:


Not sure what to think about this. You make of it what you will.


Majora:



chiefsonny in response:


COULD chief be trying to buy time for his teammates???


chiefsonny talking to weid man who turned out to be the Assassin:


Could be nothing. Maybe it's a slight indication of innocence? If chief were Mafia he could have just helped out weid in the Mafia thread. On the other hand, I know I've helped out fellow Mafia players in the main thread in the past before, just to give the appearance of just being part of the town........



chiefsonny:


If chief were Mafia, would he really put the spotlight on one of his teammates like that? I don't see why not. It would have been a zero-risk move since Feral had the conveniently legitimate excuse of being silenced.

One last thing. I voiced my protest against using out-of-game statistics to deduce who was guilty, and chief responded with:




More indigence caused by fear that his teammates might be screwed?




-----------------


Ok, let's take care of igga and Pirate now. Both have almost nothing from Day 1.

igga:

Ok, those three quotes below the igga section are only supposed to be two. That middle part is not supposed to be a quote.

Oh good lord, why didn't I proofread this before I posted? {fp}{fp}{fp}

Ok, I messed up something... I really shouldn't try to organize all these quotes using Notepad.

My first quote from Apollo is not what Bubba was responding to. My mistake.



....was actually in response to this quote from chief:



The reason I originally saved that quote is because it seems like chief and Apollo might have been joining forces to get a point across.

It's Day 2 as of 12:45 AM 7/1/

Neither you or #85 posted on Day 1, although you both were on the site. I stayed up until 1AM just to see if you and he would.

And if I recall, didn't you play the last game very close to the way you're playing this game.

Just saying

I posted several times on Day 1. You and I even exchanged words.

I've got Day 2 now, chief. I'd be curious to hear your thoughts on it! {;)}


Ok, to avoid a similar mistake to the one I made in my Day 1 analysis, this time I'll post things in chronological order instead of mixing things up.


Day 2


Kyon:


I know Kyon is already dead but I think it's just amusing to look at this reaction to LLight's death.

But wait! Bubba and Castrael post immediately afterwards! Is this a mere Mafia sandwich with a dash of innocent player in the middle, or is this sandwich just rotten all the way through?



Ok, here's this:



Black Yoshi responds:



Followed by this response from Castrael:



Interesting.... We know how hard she fought to try to save their Assassin. Could she be trying to persuade others to not go after #85?


Kyon says:


Why you plagiaristic little.... I had already used that pun during Day 1!



Ok, this one actually bothered me back when it was first posted, and I just want to point it out. Bubba says:



It bothers me because nobody, including White Thunder, had posted anything that suggested the extra kill was from the Vigilante and not the Assassin. It's like Bubba automatically knew it was the Vigilante. I might just be reading too much into this one, though. I guess it makes sense. There's little risk for the Vigilante to pick a target at the beginning of the game and huge risk for the Assassin to do so.


Here's something I feel could be noteworthy-

Black Yoshi:


Castrael:


Cas seemed to be fixated on the fact that Roxas really wanted #85 dead. Now why could that be?


Bubba:


That plan sounds fair enough. We know the Mafia killed the Doctor that very same night, not three rounds later.


Here's another Apollo quote:


This quote doesn't really help #85's case, if you ask me.


This next quote from Majora, on the other hand...



I don't remember reading that one. Geez, this game has lasted so long I almost forgot I was traveling during the first few rounds and missed some things.

It makes my post later in the round look stupid. :/


Bubba, talking to Roxas:


Roxas did turn out to be innocent, but Roxas was acting a bit funny at that time so I can't fault anyone for suspecting him.

But what about this, also from Bubba:


I always find it a bit suspicious when people are trying to suggest another player is the cop. It makes me feel like the Mafia are fishing for signs that the accused person really is the cop.


But then Cas comes around and gives me yet another reason to think maybe she's defending #85:





More from Bubba, this one actually addressing my previous concern:


After what we've witnessed during the rest of the game, I'm pretty sure the Mafia were afraid of LLight. :P


Roxas:


Castrael:


Interesting. Cas seems to speak up mostly when one of her teammates comes under question. Haven't we seen her doing this with someone else? :P


Here's a quote from Pirate_Ninja:


Hmmmmm.... urging the cop to reveal sooner than later? And again we know that the Mafia killed the Doctor immediately after Yeano revealed.


Another possible example of guilt by association, here's a quote from Trever:



I'm wondering if this quote from chief is an attempt to throw us off:



Interesting observation about Apollo: she was very spot-on this round, clearly doing everything she could to appear innocent. She pointed out players who hadn't posted during the round yet, two of whom were Mafia. She also said she found it "odd" that Feral (who was Mafia) would role-claim so early. Then she said she wasn't suspicious of me or Roxas. And she was one of the leaders in Feral's lynching. Throwing teammates under the bus and defending innocent players? I can't wait to review the next round and see if she continued this pattern with any of you guys. :P

After re-reading my Day 2 analysis, I'm reminded that Apollo did defend #85 a bit. Not sure if that makes him guilty by association, or if she was following the pattern I noticed later on in the round and defending an innocent player...

Now about igga. He was on the site Sunday 6/30 for just a couple minutes. He did not post anywhere that I can find.

Now if White Thunder does host kill him and he's a townie, which I'm sure he is because I doubt White Thunder would kill the last Mafia member and end the game.

So I would suggest one of two things.

1. Don't host kill igga.
It's apparent he cares less about the game and killing him could hurt the town big time. We could possibly lose 3 townies after the next Night round.
1. If we pick wrong and lynch a townie.
2. Host kill
3. mafia Night kill

or

2. We don't lynch and let Whiter Thunder Host kill.

I think we should do #1 and do a lynch and not Host kill igga. The town may need the numbers before this is over.

I apologize. I miss read it and thought you were talking about Day 1 of Day 11.

@Jo As you can see Majora pretty much debunked Roxas's "evidence" against me but that didn't stop the accusation from sticking around.

You also mentioned Apollo defended me? Great. I ended up lynching her {:D}

I don't think no-killing is the way to go. We are just being slow killed. We have 2 chances to end the game, we should take it.

My presence causes too much suspicion, fine, I will put myself up. Even though I am a townie, at least the town side has 1 more chance to get it right. So if you want to take 1 of your 2 shots left go ahead. If not, I say we go with Pirate Ninja.

I really don't have any idea who is mafia anyway. Imo all of you could easily be mafia.

I'll try to abridge this so it's not as tedious as my analyses of the first two rounds. Let me know if there are any mistakes. I'm trying to limit it to just stuff that could be important.

Day 3


#85 states the Mafia probably sacrificed Feral, which turned out to be true.

#85 also states he's not convinced Yeano is the cop. Fair enough, as a lot of us were questioning it.

#85 is the third person to vote for Apollo but changes to "not voting" shortly after.

chief grumbles about OoG talking and shows irritation that two crucial town power roles were lost in one night.

And yes, this one thing that I still haven't forgotten about, from chief:



and



and




What really gave me reason to suspect chief here is that chief really is a team player when he's Mafia, and he does stick his neck out if his teammates might be in danger.

After Yeano gave his investigation result and revealed Apollo was guilty, igga came forward and revealed a bunch of IM chat with Apollo that suggested Apollo tried making Majora look guilty.

Bubba voiced agreement with chief and said "this Apollo thing is escalating very fast". But then after reading Yeano's post, he changed his mind and voted for Apollo.

Cas finally votes for Apollo only because Yeano came out and said she was guilty.

Yeano suggests going after inactive players, and Cas agrees and specifically suggests "Dooku, Hezy and some others I can't think of that top of my head."

#85 then casts his final vote for Apollo with the following quote:



Then Cas comes back and says:



#85 says:


Chief votes for Apollo, although with much visible reluctance.

He also proceeds to post this, as if to save Apollo one last time:




And that's what I gleaned from Day 3.

Day 4

Chief says:


The list of players in his reply is a mixed bag of innocent and guilty. Not sure what to make of it. But the text I enlarged doesn't sit well with me.

Chief:


Could that be because several Mafia members were mostly inactive?

Another chief quote:


I'm pretty certain the Mafia were really hoping for us to lynch Yeano for them, and this post by chief could have been an attempt to steer the ship in that direction.

Jo Nathan:


Wow, that guy doesn't know what he's talking about. Redack and Yoshi were certainly not guilty. Should we listen to him regarding chief? {fp}

Castrael:


^^^ Oh hay, look at this here!

Jo Nathan:


God damn it, Jon, stop saying stupid stuff. srsly


Chief responds to Cas' question as to why I thought chief was Mafia:


Trying to discredit what I said, but not actually addressing what I said? Hmmm....

#85 says:


Roxas expresses that he's absolutely not convinced Yeano is the cop. Shortly after, Cas and chief make back-to-back posts saying they agree with Roxas, and chief also questions why the Mafia would let him live.

Then #85 says he thinks chief is acting suspicious.

Yeano reveals that Shadow is guilty so we all start voting for him.

#85 continues to voice suspicion toward Yeano.

Chief changes his mind and says if Shadow turns out guilty, he'll start believing Yeano then. Sadly (conveniently?), Yeano dies in the next night round....

I can keep going, but I feel like my mind is already made up for my vote this round.

Me too.

Kudos to Jo, I do plan on reading that in a bit and giving an analysis.


As for Igga, has anyone tried contacting him? Seems like the no brainer before he is host killed.

Take notes. He's giving a test tomorrow

YES, SO YOU BETTER TAEK NOTES.

Oh gawd, Day 5 is really long too.... sorry.

Day 5

One thing I had been overlooking is hez's constant insistance that we lynch Bubba. Why was he hellbent on lynching Bubba?

Cas says: "I'm more curious about Trever. Because he hasn't said one thing so far. And usually he helps out, but he seems to be making excuses." Pointing out a teammate who had otherwise been evading detection? Bold move, indeed. Or perhaps she thought it would make him seem innocent in case she got lynched?

One thing's certain: the Mafia were all about throwing each other under the bus this game, like hardcore. Wouldn't surprise me if one of them planned on throwing all other 7 under the bus... oh wait.

igga has been mostly inactive, but then shows up to post about the events that had passed. Nothing overly suspicious, and he does also suggest following LLight's hit list.

Ok, since chief is usually a super team player when he's non-town, this would go against his usual style if he really is Mafia:



Trever then makes a lengthy post. Too bad it had nothing incriminating against any of the remaining players. He just reaffirmed that he thinks two players are innocent (which they turned out to be) and then saying maybe Cas is guilty or maybe she's innocent. He really played it safe with that post, for sure. Should have been a clue, in hindsight.

weid man then makes a rare appearance and asks everyone to interrogate him.

Bubba questions whether we really should go with LLight's list (which contradicts his stance earlier in the round).

Chief says in response to weid man's post: "Well that certainly was enlightening." I'm only making a note of this because it make me snicker. :P

A few posts down, after I've voted again for chief, he comes back and states that I'm Mafia and am getting revenge for a vague past event. He later said he was just trying to rile me up.

In response to chief saying that I'm Mafia, Cas says: "I like your thinking, Chief." Then she immediately follows that up with: "
Okay, I'll be serious, for now." Possible agreement with a teammate and subsequent damage control? That's what I had previously speculated... Of course she profusely denied it and said it was just a joke.

Cas questions why Kyon is so quiet and expresses willingness to lynch him. More teammate bus throwing.

Then I come up with a ridiculous theory that Cas and Redack are working together and Redack is just throwing her under the bus to make himself look innocent.... But I also suggested she was on the same side as chief.

Cas was... somewhat vehement toward my suggestion that she and chief were on the same side. Oddly enough - and this part only occurred to me just now - she mentioned nothing of what I said about her and Redack. Why would she make a spectacle over the fact that I accused her and chief of being Mafia, but not Redack???

And then chief responds with this:



That wasn't the piece of evidence I was using against him. But besides that, at this stage in the game we've seen just how trigger-happy the Mafia have been to throw each other under the bus this game, so I would by no means use that as evidence of innocence.

I also am troubled by the fact that both Cas and chief used embarrassment tactics to try to make me feel foolish for suggesting they were a team. And it kinda worked at the time... because then I stopped pursuing that theory.

#85 votes for Redack. I can't really fault him completely for that since I suspected Redack too. Bubba shortly after says that he thinks Redack is innocent.

Bandit casts a vote for weid man. igga then argues that, even if he is Mafia, we should go after someone who poses a bigger threat.

Well then we got more players voting for weid man, and this is when Cas stepped in and tried to save him.

Aside from me, chief was the first one to respond after this happened, and he said he believed weid man and Cas were Mafia power roles.

I asked Cas if she thought we should lynch chief instead, and she said yes. After seeing everything that happened this game, I can't really use that as evidence for either side. It might as well have not even happened, as far as I'm concerned. :/

#85 then comes out with this, which seems a little bit shady: "I think we should be worried about trying to take out the Assassin, so we stop loosing two. Weid seems to have been inactive, and the assassin seems to have been very active."

And the rest of the round is just a bunch of fluff. Nothing noteworthy.

Upon reviewing this post, I removed a few things that were only relevant to dead players to shorten it up. Suffice it to say there are a lot of examples where Mafia were throwing each other under the bus, especially Cas.

Day 6

[Relatively] short round. Only things I feel are worth noting:

Cas called igga out on being quiet, but igga then posted.

Cas said she didn't find Bubba suspicious at all.

Chief made it a point to tell us that Cas was on the list he posted.



Day 7

Another [somewhat] shorter round.

Chief says his top three suspects are Kyon, Pirate, and hindy and igga tied for third.

Bubba gives us some food for thought:


The problem is, we now know that Trever was among their group, and he's a pretty good player.

Bubba then gives us more food for thought... oh, that's funny, he literally says "food for thought". I didn't notice that until just now. {:P} But yeah, this time he's saying he thinks we shouldn't be quick to vote off Kyon because of how persistent Cas was at throwing accusations at him.

Pirate then also expresses that he is hesitant to go after Kyon because of his concern that the Mafia are trying to take advantage of LLight's stats to get an easy kill.

Trever then decides that his top three suspects are Hindy, Kyon, and Bubba. We know that Hindy was innocent and Kyon was guilty.... could Bubba also be innocent in order to make this a Mafia sandwich with innocence bread? (Don't look at me like that... sandwiches kick ass.)


Ok guys, I'm sorry for my massive walls of text. I'm done for tonight. (I need to get a life.... (fedup))

I sort of forgot this existed, my bad. But I was informed that I was about to be host killed, and figured there's no point in the town losing another player for no reason.

Anyway, I'm fairly sure the #85 is innocent, and I'm beginning to feel the same way toward Jo Nathan with all the effort he went through this round. From all the info above, chief seems to be the most guilty, and I have no idea about Bubba. And there's not really a whole lot on P+N it appears other than the fact that he's been pretty quiet. So I guess I'll just go ahead and throw my vote out there.

Thanks for dropping in, Igga. Pretty sure you just pissed off whoever the mafia is.

Reading Jo's breakdown,

Cheif looks more guilty. I had originally had him pinned as innocent. (The Yeano/Shadow comment comes off as most damning)

#85 looks really hit or miss. Looks mafia-ish at times, other times he does seem devoted into going after the mafia.

Replying to my name,

Bubba questions whether we really should go with LLight's list (which contradicts his stance earlier in the round).

Wasn't a contradicton, since I still said Kyon should be our lynch.

That's fair enough.


Day 8

Ah yes, this is when #85 suggested a role claim, and Trever agrees. Team effort to get a role claim going, or unfortunate circumstances for #85?

Bubba questions whether #85 would be Mafia because he was the first one to vote for Kyon. A couple posts later, Yoshi says they definitely would for the sake of making themselves look innocent.

#85 says: "I've voted Mafia everytime and I think I will again" and proceeds to vote for Black Yoshi.

One interesting paragraph from Trever - trying to divert attention away from a teammate, or trying to get on #85's good side? Let's see:


And there's a moderately lengthy post from chief, arguing that he doubts the Mafia would throw each other under the bus 4-5 times in a game. He also points out that Pirate, Trever and igga are the only players who haven't voted for Mafia 4 or 5 times, and in fact have voted very few times.

Chief's points might be an attempt to deceive us... but at the same time, they sound like they could be valid.

Pirate explains his voting behavior (I won't paste it all here - it's a few posts up from the bottom of the Round 8 thread) and then says he'd "sooner cast suspicion on Trever than igga".

Chief then says he has to go with his gut, and votes for Pirate.

Zanic says he's suspected Black Yoshi the whole game, and chief says he has too but he has to rethink things after Black Yoshi voted for Kyon.

In protest to the votes for him, Pirate votes for #85.

Chief then says:


Round ended with a tie.

Day 9

Zanic confirmed as Lazarus, exposes Trever.

A couple interesting things also happened this round.

Black Yoshi said he's putting more thought into what I said about chief earlier in the game. He also points out how #85 and Trever both suggested a role claim.

I then expressed that I lost interest in pursuing chief, and I even considered that Black Yoshi might have been been Mafia trying to exploit my previous suspicion.

Zanic then says his main suspect is now #85 and says "I think them going at each other's throats in the beginning of this game was just a ploy to throw us off of their trail." Wait, who's "them"? I can only think this applied to #85 and Roxas, but Roxas was innocent, and dead at this point.

Chief says "good job" to Zanic and adds: "Let's hope the last Mafia member will be one that's inactive and you get through the night." Trying to plant a seed in our minds, perhaps?

#85 then gives us this:


and



Sorry, #85, but this is one of the main reasons I have you pegged as a top suspect. It almost seems like you went out of your way to justify why you had been acting shady and point out again that you were just a townie.

Day 10

This happened not too long ago so I don't really need to summarize it. However, I'll point out a couple things that stuck out.

#85 posted three times in a row, almost as if in a panic, and votes for Pirate. To be fair, I know firsthand that panicking doesn't automatically mean you're guilty. {:?} On the other hand, I only panic when my death will end the game. Is that what was happening to #85?

Bubba made a good point:


Black Yoshi seemed 100% sure that it's got to be #85, and he's dead now. But I'd like to point out that Black Yoshi also was suspecting chief, who Black Yoshi would certainly have pursued if we lynched #85 and found he was innocent.

I feel bad saying it, but even if #85 were innocent, I think we'd have been better off if he had been lynched so that we weren't still deliberating over him.



Ok, so the ratio is now 5-1. If we mislynch twice, we're done.

I'd just like to point out that if we had not tied in the last round, it would have taken us three mis-lynches to lose.

You were the one who was going after me the most, Jo, I would have taken you out if I was Mafia.

I am going to cast my vote due to a combination of saving myself and having this suspicion for a while anyway.

Things are certainly getting close. Only four votes to die, and chief has two.

LOL

You had every intention of changing your vote

I put myself up, and you guys didn't seal the fate.

In the event the round ends and I'm not on line and I get killed tonight, I just want to leave you with a few thoughts.

With no disrespect to any of the other players, imo there are only 3 remaining players that could pull this off.

By that I mean taking out your own team members to make it look like you're a townie. Come to think of it, it's a good strategy in a way. Because the only thing your team mates that you threw under the bus have to lose is 1 point for not being alive. They would still get the points for being on the winning team.

Th 3 that could pull it off are Jo Nathan, #85 and me.

This is only the 2nd game PN has played in, And he hasn't been that active and I doubt he would put that much effort into it.{:P}

Igga is a new player that only shows up every 15 day or so, so he wouldn't have had the time to pull it off.

Bubba has only played a few games and I don't think would have had the experience to pull it off.

Now back to the 3 that could do it and in JN and my case have done it in past games. JN did something along these lines in the last game if I remember right.

So my message to the remaining townies. If I'm take out tonight, either JN or #85 are the Godfather.

Good luck

And let me add this. I think Pirate_Ninja is smart enough and cunning enough to do it. I just don't think he would spend the time it would take to make it work.

oops, I forgot;

If we go by sheer amount of evidence, chief, I have to say you look the most guilty, followed by #85.

But there's something about Pirate. He just strikes me as very... cunning... (shifty)

This is why I wish we had three shots and not two. I blew it by missing the end of the last round. {fp}

This will hopefully prevent us from having another tie. And chief, if you are innocent.... please forgive this foolish young chap.

Time will tell. What bothers me the most, is I think the town has blown it again(sad)

I still stand by what I said in a early round (Thanks to Jo for reminding me {:P}) I believe it's a veteran player.

I've been mentioning Pirate_Ninja for the last 2 rounds, and I still have a hunch he is mafia. But if not him, it is definitely either #85 or Chief. So the game will not tie, I'm voting for Cheif.

Whoever dies tonight will be telling.

Et tu, Brute?