FAW, you only need the "s" in the strike tags.

[+S+]+striked+[+/+s+]= striked

I didn't even realize they had a janitor. Would have pushed for a kill on day 1 a lot harder if I had known.

I'm really upset by this in all honesty. Like, incredibly upset. Ugh.

neat

I'm actually more surprised that it was noted down that PN was silenced. Usually we are not told that right up front. It makes it a bit easier on us I guess so I am more than fine with it :P

Good observation I didn't catch that. Since we know that pn is a confirmed passenger I think the doctor should protect him tonight and the watcher should wait until tomorrow to role claim. Idk though what do yall think?

Not necessarily. When I was the Silencer in a past game, I silenced myself to throw the town off. Of course, it backfired horribly and I was lynched that day. What I am saying is that being silenced doesn't automatically make PN innocent.

I hadn't considered that. In that case perhaps the watcher should reveal this round and have the doctor protecting him, since he's out only information role. For now, I'm going to vote for Xhin, because in the previous round he said...



After it became apparent that the Feral bandwagon was not going to go through, although there was no real reason to vote for me aside from the fact that Lady Flare also had a vote on me. He's also the only one who left his vote on me until the end of the round instead of switching to no kill.

I had expected The Bandit to be the first mafia kill, but he's still alive. Also, Xhin followed suit with The Bandit, helping him pull the votes off of himself by turning them instead against me, while The Bandit did not want to change his vote and risk being the one lynched.

So to spell this out with votes.

Bandit voted for Feral
Xhin voted for Feral
I voted for Bandit for voting for Feral
The Bandit admits he doesn't really want to kill Feral, but doesn't want to risk a lynch.
Xhin votes for me.
I vote for no kill, increasing the gap and making it more likely that I would be lynched.
Other people start voting for no kill.
When it's obvious that The Bandit is no longer at risk, he switches to no kill.
Xhin does not change his vote.

At the moment, I'm 50/50 with my suspicions against The Bandit, but about 80/20 against Xhin.

Another part of my reasoning is that in the past 5 games Xhin has not been mafia.

Statistically speaking, this gives him a 38.46% chance of being mafia, that's incredibly high considering that the average player has a statistical chance of being mafia at about a 7.69% chance of being mafia in any given game.

And if you're thinking I'm mafia, I'm not, but if you are thinking I am, the chance of that being the case at this point is about 3.85%, lower than average, this is accounting for the fact that I was mafia last game.

Oh, right.

Actually, scratch that, I'm pretty sure I was mafia the last two games, that knocks my percentage down to 1.92%

(????)

You know who else used math, probability, and numbers? Prohibition kingpins, AKA mafia.

Sorry, I've had a crazy few days. I would have rescinded my vote.

Something about white lancer's post yesterday strikes me as off.



I can't quite place it though.

Yeah, that analysis makes absolutely no sense Ghowilo. First off:

The Bandit admits he doesn't really want to kill Feral, but doesn't want to risk a lynch.

Nah, that's not what happened. I specifically said I had no problem doing a Day1 lynch (as I pretty much never do, except in very specific formats where the mafia is OP and losing one townie is too big of a dent to overcome). I said I didn't want to kill Feral because it was his first game back and that would be mean. I kept the vote on until the No Kill racked up to protect myself, which is not indicative of anything except that I like living.

Normally on Day1 I wouldn't have been so uneasy about a few votes. Most players don't like killing on Day1, and even if they do, Day1 is usually just people fucking around (i.e. wanting to kill me because my name is bandit). However, the mafia games have been pretty inactive lately. The last game demonstrated this very well. Castrael was mafia and got killed by two very half-hearted votes. Just two was all it took, and she wasn't even a townie. Her mafia team could have easily saved her with any kind of block. I had three votes this game, and I don't even have anyone that's going to come in and try to save me, so yeah. I was pretty nervous about dying.

As for your mathematical analysis, it's just a bunch of gambler's fallacy. Xhin is no more likely to be mafia this game than he was last game or the game before that. Just as you are not any less likely to be mafia because you've previously been mafia.

Now suppose that we have just tossed four heads in a row, so that if the next coin toss were also to come up heads, it would complete a run of five successive heads. Since the probability of a run of five successive heads is only 1?32 (one in thirty-two), a person subject to the gambler's fallacy might believe that this next flip was less likely to be heads than to be tails. However, this is not correct, and is a manifestation of the gambler's fallacy; the event of 5 heads in a row and the event of "first 4 heads, then a tails" are equally likely, each having probability 1?32. Given that the first four rolls turn up heads, the probability that the next toss is a head is in fact, 1/2.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
A single coin flip is 50/50 on every instance, regardless of what has happened in the past. Even if it has landed 99 heads in a row, the next flip is still a 50/50 chance, assuming that the coin is fair.

that the average player has a statistical chance of being mafia at about a 7.69% chance of being mafia in any given game.

No, that's wrong too. Mafia games are almost always roughly 66% town, 33% mafia. There is some variation depending on whether there are third party roles, or if we have a weird number of total entrants, but that 1/3 mafia is very standard. Take this game. 16 players. 10 townies, 5 mafia, 1 third party. 5/16 chances of being mafia. Definitely not 7%.

And if you're thinking I'm mafia, I'm not, but if you are thinking I am, the chance of that being the case at this point is about 3.85%, lower than average, this is accounting for the fact that I was mafia last game.

Yeah, I don't know what you're doing tbh. Even if it wasn't gambler's fallacy, the chances of being mafia two games in a row are a lot higher than 3.85. It's roughly 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9 = ~11%.

Xhin may be mafia, I don't know, but I'm not voting for him based on bad math.

Nice hyperlinks!!!!!

But shitty formatting errors. I'm pretty sure I didn't do that, so I'm wondering if the link fucked up my post. Here's everything after the link in better formatting:

A single coin flip is 50/50 on every instance, regardless of what has happened in the past. Even if it has landed 99 heads in a row, the next flip is still a 50/50 chance, assuming that the coin is fair. =that the average player has a statistical chance of being mafia at about a 7.69% chance of being mafia in any given game. No, that's wrong too. Mafia games are almost always roughly 66% town, 33% mafia. There is some variation depending on whether there are third party roles, or if we have a weird number of total entrants, but that 1/3 mafia is very standard. Take this game. 16 players. 10 townies, 5 mafia, 1 third party. 5/16 chances of being mafia. Definitely not 7%.

And if you're thinking I'm mafia, I'm not, but if you are thinking I am, the chance of that being the case at this point is about 3.85%, lower than average, this is accounting for the fact that I was mafia last game. Yeah, I don't know what you're doing tbh. Even if it wasn't gambler's fallacy, the chances of being mafia two games in a row are a lot higher than 3.85. It's roughly 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9 = ~11%. Xhin may be mafia, I don't know, but I'm not voting for him based on bad math.

goddamnit just FUCK IT ALL

Calm down, I think we get the point :P

For the moment, I don't think either one of you is mafia, but it may be a good idea to start pointing some fingers at some of the more inactive people since a good portion of the time, the mafia seems to like to sit back and watch the town tear themselves apart blaming each other.

Speaking of inactive players, we have yet to hear from the mystery novelist. I understand the watcher doesn't want to blow their cover, but the mystery novelist has no excuse, we should have heard some sort of report by now (sad)

I am a little leery of Ghowilo, to be quite honest, as there are several things he said that don't sit well with me.

First, he immediately went off of the assumption that PN is innocent, almost as if he knows it to be a fact. Of course I could be reading too much into this.

But other things aren't jiving with me either. We're only on Day 2 and he's pushing to get the watcher to reveal their identity, putting them at risk. I realize though that this could be a legitimate strategy as long as the doctor protects them (unless hez was the doctor... and the odds of that are slim).

And honestly I don't think a Day 1 joke vote is solid grounds for lynching Xhin.

So I guess I'm on the fence regarding Ghowilo because I could see him going either way, but I'm probably 55% in favor of voting for him at this point.

-the bandit

You basically added onto what I was saying, sorry I worded that poorly because I was mainly focusing on xhin, not you.

Also I'm not the doctor, I just thought that white lancers suggestion was a good one. I certainly don't want to put the watcher at risk, I want him to be protected.

And yeah, I see what you're saying about my math, I was incredibly tired and was doing a 1/13 chance instead of 5/13. Anyways....

I'll see why I commented on pn layer and try to defend whatever it waseems I said because I'm sure I had some reason or another. But I honestly don't remember and I don't know for certain it's just speculation and trying to make conversatio at this point.

Can you point out what I said about pn? I can't find it.

Well, this game is chugging right along.

We can't afford another no kill. Just throwing about a random vote of the three names on the block. I have no real suspicious of any of them, and will change if the majority decides to go another way.

Um, by the way, who is this "Duceus" person on the vote list? I must have missed a new player...

I hadn't considered the possibility of the mafia silencing itself until Feral pointed it out.

My thoughts from the these past two rounds:

Innocent - white lancer, chiefsonny (who may be silenced), and the bandit

Mafia: Feral Wolf.

We got just 6 hours left, guys.

Also, Chief can't be silenced, because PN is.

Not silenced. Just very very busy irl.

Post at top of page says 72 hours or 10 votes.
May be a typo.

Going back and read all the post before I decided what to do.

Day 1 was 48 hours, so either FAW's days are VERY erratic or shit goofed up.

12:34 a.m. was when this round started, it's currently 9:20 pm. S/he still has a while.

Don't you DARE question my hand-picked host. She was chosen for the role due to her knowledge of the game and eagerness to broaden the horizons. I oughta smack your ass inside out.

FUCK YOU FERAL

Guys, I am trying to keep my cool. I am begging you, PLEASE don't turn this into a flame-fest. This is EXACTLY what drove me out to begin with.

FAW, I was not questioning your rules. I just wanted to be sure I had them right. I certainly didn't intend to upset you.

you GOOFED!!!!!!!!

I was hoping the Mystery Writer would have a report by now...would at least give us something to discuss. I'm going to guess that it probably means that they didn't get anything too exciting, but they could just be busy/inactive.

The idea of the Watcher revealing I thought was a pretty good one when I put it out there last round. It's obviously a little riskier now that Hezy is dead and that he could have been the doctor. The Watcher is also a less powerful role than the Cop and could have some misleading and perhaps even harmful info (i.e. Exposing Town power roles to the Mafia). That's only going to get worse, and we may not be able to trust Watcher claims in the future anyway since they could already be dead, so I would say that it's now or never on the Watcher-protected-by-Doctor plan. So far it looks like they'd rather keep their role quiet, which is probably fine...it's definitely less of a lock than the Coptor combo usually is. I will say that if they know who silenced PN, they should speak up today (and we'll want to pay extra attention to people being silenced each night).

Question for FAW: are the Lovers shown as leaving their homes or visiting each other in the night?

Um...

Err...I'm not sure about that article. Hindenburg just seems like the obvious scapegoat for a Journalist who missed but is still hoping to get someone lynched. An okay target if we don't have much else going on, but I'm not putting too much stock into it.

I don't see the rationale for voting Feral--he hasn't seemed particularly suspicious to me.

There is also the possibility Hinden is a power role; Doctor, Watcher, etc. in which case it would be best to protect him (if he is the Watcher) I don't really want to take the chance at this moment in time to possibly lynch a power role. It would be nice to see what Hinden has to say.

Also yeah I'm a bit curious why Xhin is so dead set on getting Feral out.

Err...I'm not sure about that article. Hindenburg just seems like the obvious scapegoat for a Journalist who missed but is still hoping to get someone lynched. An okay target if we don't have much else going on, but I'm not putting too much stock into it.

Completely agree with this. I thought the same thing. Just seems odd for Hidenburg to ever be anyone's first pick for anything.

It is risky for the Journalist to lie on his very first report, but it has happened recently.

I'd rather just keep Hidenburg as a backup for now. If we get down to mislynch or lose and he's still alive, then we can kill him.

Guys, I am trying to keep my cool. I am begging you, PLEASE don't turn this into a flame-fest. This is EXACTLY what drove me out to begin with.

Didn't you tell someone very recently that Hidenburg is a troll and should just be ignored? Take your own advice man.

We've got 24 hours left. I think no killing would be a huge mistake. We're not getting as much info as normal because of the Lazy Janitor, and we may have a Journalist who has no problem lying to us, so we're in a bad way there too. Killing someone, even if it's a total blind shot, at least gives us information to work with so that our next kill isn't a blind shot.

-PN is obviously the safest at the moment, though Feral is correct in that he's not a confirmed innocent.

-I also disagree with Jo Nathan about Ghowilo. Although his analysis was not correct, the fact that he gave such a detailed post at all at this point in the game leads me to believe that he's more likely to be innocent. It just usually isn't in the mafia MO to make a post of that kind this early.

-Hidenburg I'm less likely to vote for because of the article. I'm not discounting him, but right now it just isn't adding up.

-Xhin is erratic right, but he actually played very similar to this last game (or maybe the game before, can't remember) and he was town sided then.

-Feral's first post pointing out that PN could still be mafia just feels like something a townie would say, especially given the way he plays.

I'm open to more suggestions, but I'm going with this. His post just doesn't sit right with me. He obviously didn't read the OP to realize PN is silenced, but suggesting that chief is silenced feels kind of like misdirection to me a bit? And then there's no explanation for why he finds Feral guilty. I don't know. I'm not even 50% on this guess tbh, but it's the only thing I really have that notable.

Mine is just suspicion, just like yours bandit ;)

What stuck out to me was the first round when feral was defending himself against votes. This seems a little necessary, as that early in the game votes shouldn't be taken so seriously. So unless he has something in stake, his defense seems unnecessary and raises suspicious.

Also, pointing out the silencer thing seems like something that's common knowledge that a mafia member could easily point out to try to gain the town's trust.

And as for the opening thread, I usually just skim through and see who died, I thought the discussion of who was silenced was about last round as I didn't read all of it, and at that point chief hadn't voted. That doesn't change how I feel about chief's innocence and feral's guiltiness, as they are not related.

What game are you playing, CtR? I blatantly DIDN'T defend myself last round as a show of good will. I don't know WHAT you are seeing, but it didn't happen.

Everybody knows I have a tendency to loose my cool when I feel trapped, and I am trying to show that since my departure from the GT staff, I have really tried to stop being so temperamental and over-sensitive.

As I said, my response was because I misinterpreted FAW's tone in her explanation of the longer day and thought I upset her. I knew Speed was joking and don't give a damn about Hindenburg's crap.

@SBP Why are round 1 votes not showing up in Vote Tallies by Round?

Also, I'm going to go back and reword the statistics stuff, but this time I'm going to pay more attention to detail and focus on the probability that you would be a townie five games in a row. Anyways, realizing that my statistics were wrong I'm willing to rescind my vote and place it on CTR because tbqh he's rubbing me the wrong way atm. Be aware that this is going to cause a 3 way tie so someone else needs to step in and vote for someone. If it's still a 3 way tie, or my work isn't damning to xhin in my eyes, by 9pm tonight, I'll switch back to Xhin.

goddamnit editing. Was trying to fix a typo.

... or my work isn't damning to xhin in my eyes, ...

Hey, no problem for me. I'd rather take out CtR then Xhin at this point.

Did you mean then or did you mean than?

Serious question.

Woah woah woah, let me get in on this action you bloodhorny kids!!!!!



My guess would be FAW deleted the votes after the first round, otherwise I have no idea. Awaiting a response from her.

Out of the options you fine folks have laid out before us on the dinner table, the only one I'd be moderately okay with is CtR but I'm not exactly sold on him either. Most of the discussion this day round has come from the same 5 or 6 people which means there are a lot of people diddling themselves.

Soooooo I'm gonna do THIS KYAH

Ghowilo - has big mathematical model to suggest due to his previous games as mafia it's unlikely for him to be mafia. Votes for a person that was mafia in the previous game

My only response is that killing me would be a waste and would cost you two passengers.

There is no way to prove my innocents this early in, so I'm not gonna start a big argument here.

This is the post i was refering. I believe this is an off-handed way of defending yourself.

My vote for you has nothing to do with the FAW thing.

Also, as it may not be obvious to everyone, I know that this is not cemently incriminating evidence. But, as it has been said we should lynch someone due to the janitor I believe Feral is the best choice.

So lynch me for wanting to lynch someone even though we were going to do that anyway...

refering to*

Did you miss the part where my math was wrong?

I'm not dead set on getting Feral out, I just wanted to tie up the votes for me. I'd rather *not* vote feral out actually, because it's his first game back...

Welp, everyone else seems to know best so...

Did you miss the part where my math was wrong?

I wasn't using your reasoning to say that I was innocent, I was just showing that if you believed that being in the mafia a previous game would lower your chances then you would not have voted for me.

I also find it interesting that you say you find xhin and the bandit suspicious, but because I vote for feral you jump along with the bandit's vote.

But until someone can convince me otherwise,

I said I was keeping my vote on xhin until something better came along, I didn't do it because bandit voted for you, I did it because the way you're talking is making me suspicious. If I'm being completely honest its that damn winking face you used defending yourself.

Also, I'm going to wait until next round to update my math, because if ctr does turn out innocent, it can have an effect on the results I'd be willing to use. I'll also be careful not to fall into the gambler's fallacy again lolololol

uh, you're laughing, you must be guilty

CtR Black changed his vote to Ghowilo

Okay, I just skimmed the thread, and let it be known that I am not a power role, as per the fucking dickfuck norm, so someone either raped me in my sleep or the journalist is trying to be a Jew.

also hopping on bandwagon DIE

@Feral did you mean then or than. I seriously want to know.

I like the way SBP thinks..

Also this feels too much like bandwagoning to me.

Than. Damned dyslexia.

Correcting a typo from 4 hours ago? What are you, mafia?

You know what bandit, you're off my innocent list! {>:(}

But honestly though let's take a look at the hindenburg thing.
- Hindenburg accused of leaving room by journalist.
- Immediately the journalist is seen as being a liar due to his choice of pick.

We've got 24 hours left. I think no killing would be a huge mistake.

So why not lynch Hindenburg and figure out if we can trust the journalist?


I'd rather just keep Hidenburg as a backup for now. If we get down to mislynch or lose and he's still alive, then we can kill him.

Oh that makes sense, if we can't trust the journalist now we should be able to trust him at the end of the game, in a pressure situation. Let's just ignore the journalist till then.

Why kill Hindenburg unnecessarily? Either he is innocent and is killed by the Mafia tonight or he is guilty and lynched by us tomorrow or he is innocent and killed tonight, and we know the Journalist can't be trusted.

Unless he, himself, is Mafia, the Mafia has nothing to lose by testing the Journalist's claim. At the least, they kill a Townie and prove the Journalist a liar. They would be pretty damned stupid not to take the chance meaning if Hindenburg is still alive tomorrow, he is likely Mafia.

Also, we are down to less then 6 hours. We started this round at 12:30 AM Wenesday morning. It will end 12:30 AM Saturday morning, as in after midnight tonight.

Or the mafia could kill him and hide his body and we still not know if we can trust the journalist.

Let's see if we can kill hindenburg before the round ends shall we {troll}

Well I finally got home, poured some wine and went back and read every post that has been made in the game. Twice.

One thing I noticed is post that had subtle little remarks that could be mistaken for a role claim. We don't need to help the Mafia by maybe giving them our power roles. I found 2 of these and I'm sure they were not intentional. But be careful.

At this point I don't think Lady Flare, Hindenburg or The Bandit are Mafia, but I do have some suspension about Feral, Ghowilo. And that's because they spend most of their time trying to convince us they are townie.

I will vote in a few minutes. There are 2-3 more post I want to read.
Also does anyone know what time zone FAW is using?

When I seen that CtR Black had 5 votes I wanted to go back and see if I missed something. I didn't see anything that would lead me to believe that he is Mafia.

But when I seen that he voted for himself a flag went up. Is he tired of playing or did he hit the wrong vote link?

As much as I hate doing this, with nothing more to go on I'm going to pass getting on this bandwagon.

You can call me Lucina, cause I'm about to challenge my fate {8D}

(kiss)(kiss)(kiss)(kiss)(kiss)(kiss)(kiss)

...and time is up.

With a vote of 4-2-2, CTR, you have been evicted from the Big Bro... er, Mafia game.