Mafia

Me thinks it's time for us to kill the Vigilante before we let the Mafia win this game.

3 maybe 4 (if Cas was a townie) of us gone and only 1 of them.{:(}

HELLO!

Need I say anything?

By my count, our ratio is 6-3 (assuming something very strange didn't happen with Castrael). We have time for one more miskill before we're in a lynch-or-lose scenario.

What I find very interesting is that the Janitor didn't hide Roxas/Xhin's body. Either they just decided not to bother, or they were trying to do something fancy. It's possible that they were afraid the Vigilante would target one of their own and chose to hide them instead in the hopes of confusing us if we hit right. That would tend to point the finger toward either hezy or Trever. Alternatively, hezy and Trever are both innocent and they were hoping the Vig would strike one of them, maybe causing us to assume one of them were guilty. Either way, there would be a lot of confusion, and if hezy/Trever are innocent I'm inclined to be quite suspicious of MM9. He forced the tie last round and I wouldn't be surprised if it was for the exact reason of trying to pull the whole Vig/Janitor scheme off.

We should discuss whether it's a good time to roleclaim or not. We have at least three special roles still active (Vigilante/Doctor for sure) and if we vote someone off today we won't have a chance to check a Double-voter claim (since the next round will result in a lynch-or-lose scenario). On the other hand, waiting one more day means a chance that our surviving special roles will equal half or more of our remaining players (unless of course Castrael was a special role). I think it might be more beneficial to do that today, since we have only one role hidden and most of the people killed are confirmed vanilla Townies.

I am inclined to think this might be a good time. The odds of the Mafia taking out and hiding the Vigilante increase with each person that dies.

My reasoning for tying the vote was because I wasn't convinced of Trever's guilt, and I'm still not. In fact, I think it's more plausible now that he's the vigilante and killed Roxas. The vigilante either killed Xhin or Roxas, however Trever and hezekiah were the two big names mentioned in the day round, and seemed like obvious vigilante kill choices. Xhin made one post this game where he apologized for inactivity; I can't see any reason why the vigilante would target him. This means the vigilante is someone who didn't target hezekiah or Trever, but felt Roxas was suspicious enough to be killed. Trever openly voiced his suspicions of Roxas, and Roxas was the most aggressive toward Trever. This isn't proof the Trever is innocent, but I'd bet money on him being the vigilante.

I personally wouldn't consider trying to save Trever from being lynched suspicious on my part. Especially if he is the vigilante and innocent.

As for roleclaiming, I guess I wouldn't have any problems with it. If Trever or hezekiah are power roles it could definitely steer us in a better direction. I'm still inclined to vote for hezekiah though, but I want the day round to play out a bit before we go through with the lynching.

... Well.

I'm kind of inclined to believe that Trever is the vigilante and killed Roxas because he strongly believe that Roxas was Mafia, but then again I think its unlikely just because how picky Trever is with just voting. But.... bleh.

hey guys im innocent. more later

Ok good, that leaves us one less person to suspect. {:P}

Eh, I'm not sold on your innocence just yet, Majora, even if Trever IS the Vigilante. Mostly because some of the things you've said have set off alarm bells in my head, but I'm not quite sure enough of those to vote for you yet either. More on that later.

The more I think about it, the more I think roleclaiming at this point is the best move. The reason I was against a first-round roleclaim was that I hoped our special roles would survive until later in the game and that vanilla Townies would be the brunt of the casualties. That's pretty much exactly what's happened, and we've even gotten a bit of a boost since the Janitor has only hidden one body. We also know for sure that the Vigilante is alive, and both the Double-voter and the Governor roles are testable.

If Castrael was a special role, a roleclaim cuts our potential targets down to 6, giving us a 50-50 shot of hitting a Mafia member this round and (if we miss) a 60% shot of hitting one the next round, and that's without even relying on people's posts to give them away. If Castrael wasn't a special role, our list of potential Mafia members instantly goes down to 5, of whom we should have time to take down 4. Meaning we'd just have to correctly guess the innocence of one of the Townies and we'd win the game. Add on the fact that Feral won't be killed (a confirmed innocent will be there by the end of the game), and I like those odds.

So, yeah. I'll start the roleclaiming and say that I'm a vanilla Townie.

I'm Dr. Feral, PHD. Already confirmed.

Ah hell, it's not like I'm gonna try using my power again anyway after what happened. I'm the jackass that killed Roxas. I found him suspicious because of his reaction to what I thought was a very mild accusation by Trever, and I interpreted his request to the Vigilante as a bluff.

Roxas, I'm sorry for misreading you and even more sorry for killing you. (cry)

Seeing as the vigilante roleclaimed, I don't really have any reason to hide the fact that I'm a vanilla townie anymore.

I agree with white lancer's conclusion that once we narrow down who the townie claims are, we'll be in a great position where we only have to focus on a group of 5 or 6 people, depending on Castrael's role. I'm hoping the rest of the roleclaims can come in before the round ends. If not, my vote is going to hezekiah, as I've already explained in past rounds why I'm suspicious of him.

Well, Jo specifically asked me NOT to protect him after his reveal, so I guess he will be gone come morning.

Well we do know that the Vigilante's still alive, and the Doctor is too. Governor or Double-Voter might've been the mafia's kill the first night, be we'd have to put some effort into verifying a claim of one of those. We'll see what happens as more people claim. I'm a townie.

1. chiefsonny
2. Feral - Doctor
3. Castrael- ???
4. Female Alpha Wolf
5. Jo Nathan - Vigilante claim
6. MajorasMask9 - Townie claim
7. Black Yoshi- Townie
8. Helius- Godfather
9. Xhin- Townie
10. `Roxas`- Townie
11. hezekiah - Townie claim
12. CtR Black
13. white lancer - Townie claim
14. Trever Leingod

We're at 3 townie claims, 3 confirmed dead townies. One more claim and we'll know there's a mafia member among the group.

So because spmeone claims to be a townie, that makes them a townie. Yea, right.



And so how is that going to help us. Actually there are 3 mafia (2 if Castrael was mafia. So how do we decided who these 2 are.?

Congrats, you missed the point.

im a townie guys

Okay, now we can know that at least one from MajorasMask9, hezekiah, CtR Black and white lancer is mafia. As far as I can tell, chief, FAW and Trever haven't claimed any role yet. Due to the claims that have come in (and those that haven't), I'm voting this way until more information is shared.

Well if we're role claiming, I'm gonna go ahead and say I'm just a Townie, which was I excited about because I thought I could get winning points but now the tables seem to be turning :(

Okay, so either both chief and Trever are special roles, or one of them is a Townie and Castrael was the other special role. Hoping they'll both roleclaim soon so we have a chance to decide our votes.

I'm not planning on voting just yet (better to wait until the other two roleclaims come in IMO), but I do think we need to take someone out this round and I'm leaning towards either hezy or Majora. Also, if there's a Double-voter claim, we can kill two birds with one stone by intentionally tying the votes--if an equal number of players vote for the same option but the DV is on one side, it's an easy check of the claim.

Right now I'm still suspicious of hezekiah for all the same reasons I mentioned before, but I'm also suspicious of white lancer. Last round he mentioned how Roxas and I were "subtly and not so subtly" trying to get Trever and hezekiah killed. Roxas was innocent, and I too am innocent. Earlier in that round white lancer said that he didn't want to vote for hezekiah, but was going to vote for Trever at the end of the round if he didn't claim a power role. He never voted for Trever, though. Earlier this round white lancer raised suspicion about me tying the vote last round, but why didn't he stop it? I know some of you guys don't like using the online users feature, but I did see white lancer online well before the round ended. He definitely had the opportunity to stop the tie. Considering his talk about the Janitor earlier in this round, it definitely seems like he could be mafia and intentionally left the vote tied for that reason.

Now he's claimed Townie. I think if hezekiah is mafia (which I still believe), white lancer is also most likely a member of the mafia.

Putting my vote in after either Trever or chief roleclaom.

I am a Townie Special Role.

However, I don't see what purpose it serves by saying witch one at this point other then to put a target on my back.

Well, if you're the guvnah we could prove it by voting for you and you invoking your power to stop it. And at this point I potentially have the biggest target on my back as the Vigilante anyway. Or maybe not because I've proven to not be very good at it... >_<

*witch
Which

Role-claiming is obviously not going to be so effective if we don't get everyone involved. Personally I would suspect those who are remaining silent...

That was... unexpected.

Anyway, obviously I am not the Vigilante - so I'll assume Jo Nathan is in fact the real one. I'm a townie yet again - which I am tired of, since I have never had a single power role in any completed game so far.

It is unfortunate we had to expose the Vigilante, being the town's best chance at night. Oh well.

So far I still don't know who to vote for (fedup) MM9 and white lancer are the ones mostly taking a lead and/or pointing fingers in some sense, and hezekiah has some light cast on him due to getting Black Yoshi killed. But none of them are convincing Mafia... (sad)

If I were Mafia, I would have just painted my own team into a bit of a corner when I pushed for the roleclaiming strategy. Obviously not proof of my innocence by any means, but I should hope it's obvious I've been trying to figure the game out.

That being said, I'm almost positive Majora is Mafia now. I actually was having a little doubt about my suspicions until that last post of his, which looks way too much like a Mafia member trying to cover his tracks by attacking his accuser. Plus, Majora's logic is all over the place: he's supposedly innocent because he didn't allow Trever to be killed while I'm guilty because I didn't vote to kill Trever (which I didn't do because I was worried he was a special role and was giving him a chance to claim). It's also a red flag that his motivation seems to have changed overnight--yesterday he wanted a lynch and said that while he would rather kill hezekiah than Trever, he was okay with either of them dying, but today his move from yesterday was all about saving Trever. Lack of consistency in arguments from a player of Majora's caliber is a huge red flag, and at this point I'll be absolutely flabbergasted if he isn't Mafia.

Trever's claim of Townie guarantees chief's innocence and the fact that Castrael was a special role. JN and Feral are similarly innocent, leaving us with 6 possibles (myself, MM9, hezekiah, Trever, FAW, and CtR). As I said, I'm convinced MM9 is Mafia, and based on his responses I think CtR is likely Mafia as well. I'd have to take another look at FAW but from what I've seen she doesn't seem all that suspicious. And I would be surprised if neither hezy nor Trever are guilty, given Majora's actions last round, and I lean towards Trever since Majora saved him last round. Casting my vote for Majora now.

I believe trev's a safe vote. but i'm wrong 4/5 times. so :D

The roleclaims were going to come sooner or later, and starting it doesn't make you any more or less innocent. If anything, it could be viewed as an attempt to lure out the vigilante (the reason I was hesitant to reveal at first) which ended up working. There are many reasons why the mafia would want to start a role reveal.



You've voiced suspicions of me since Day 2; if I had ever said "I find white lancer suspicious," you could say I'm attacking my accuser. Day 2 was when we started to get any information, so you shouldn't expect me to have gone after you in Day 1. In Day 2, I was more suspicious of hezekiah than you. I don't see the logic in how you voicing your suspicions of me first makes my suspicions of you any less valid.

Well.

I reeeeeally don't like going with gut feelings but I feel optimistic with this choice...

If anything, it could be viewed as an attempt to lure out the vigilante (the reason I was hesitant to reveal at first) which ended up working. There are many reasons why the mafia would want to start a role reveal.

Like I said, it's not proof of my innocence by any means, but I still think the roleclaim helps the Town a good bit more than it hurts for the reasons I stated earlier (notably limiting the places for the Mafia to hide and giving us a good place to start figuring things out). At the very least it shows that I'm being proactive in this game, while I feel like you've been playing passively and hoping people will pick up on your suggestions (mostly of hezekiah).

You've voiced suspicions of me since Day 2; if I had ever said "I find white lancer suspicious," you could say I'm attacking my accuser. Day 2 was when we started to get any information, so you shouldn't expect me to have gone after you in Day 1. In Day 2, I was more suspicious of hezekiah than you. I don't see the logic in how you voicing your suspicions of me first makes my suspicions of you any less valid.

It's not that you've voiced suspicions of me, it's that you did so in a very deliberately constructed attack post based on flimsy evidence that even goes against what you said before re: Trever. To me, it comes off as an attempt to discredit me and turn my suspicions around rather than you really finding me suspicious.

I never said it confirmed my innocence, but that if Trever was the vigilante (a role that could be confirmed innocent), it would help my case than if he was mafia. And I wasn't saying that you not killing Trever pointed toward you being guilty, but rather, the fact that you used that as evidence against me when you could have easily changed the situation. If I hadn't tied the vote, Trever would have died. What would you have rather had the outcome be?

If I'm being honest, I wish I had voted Trever out, mostly because I found Trever more suspicious than Roxas. Unfortunately, I was giving him a chance to claim if he was a power role and while I did check in once or twice, I wasn't exactly sitting here refreshing the page and I missed the end of the round. There's a big difference between that and arguing that we should take someone out that round, then consciously forcing a tie and suggesting that the Vig break it (setting up the possible Janitor strategy, which didn't even occur to me as a possibility until I saw the Janitor didn't hide anyone last night). There's a chance you just felt that hezy was guilty and were hoping the Vig would break the tie in that direction, but that seems much more passive of a play than what I'm used to seeing from you.

Saving Trever, wanting hezekiah lynched, they meant the same thing when the votes were against Trever and for hezekiah. I've been consistent in that I've wanted hezekiah lynched; saving Trever was part of that.

That's not how you worded it last round, though, which is where the contradiction comes in. Yesterday you tied the vote and said you would take your vote off if no one voted with you to ensure that someone would get lynched. That doesn't sound like someone whose primary motive is saving Trever, but you pretty much try to take credit for just that today. Revisionist history here.

I would still rather vote out Majora than Trever, personally. I'm feeling confident that Majora is Mafia while I'm not so sure about Trever--I think it's possible that Majora really was trying to protect Trev last round and was trying to play it off like he wasn't, but his stuff about Trev being the Vigilante earlier this round is throwing me off a bit. I'm thinking that might have been MM9's goal, though, and I do think Trever is a better option than hezekiah and maybe FAW right now. I'll go for him unless people are willing to vote out Majora with me.

And I clearly changed my mind at the last minute, despite not publicly stating it, otherwise I would have lynched Trever. Strategies and ideas change, and if you really are innocent I'd expect you to be somewhat more understanding of that. It's not like it was an easy decision, or anything.

Keeping my vote.

Majora and I were Mafia together prior to the restart. I didn't end up as Mafia again and I've been considering the odds that Majora would be picked as Mafia twice in a row... It's totally possible, but I don't have a calculator on me right now.

$1 minutes left and I still don't know what I want to do.

I would like return the favor and vote for hezy because I think he is mafia. But that will cause a tie vote and I don't want that.

I could be wrong, but I don't think Trever is mafia so I'm not going to jump on that band wagon.

Wow, interesting back and forth here makes the next today and tomorrow easy. Trev dies tonight as a sacrificial lamb. If he is guilty, Majora is guilty. If he is innosent, Hezekiah and probably Lancer are guilty.

The third Mafia is either CtR or FAW, but we will cross that bridge when we get to it.

Feral changes his vote to Trever Liengod

Started Tuesday, Jan 15, 2013 -- 1:41pm

Should end at 1:41PM EST