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Mafia

Moderated by: Speed Bike Pro

night 4

Posted January 29, 2015 by Female Alpha Wolf

Papers littered the train cars. The passengers shifted through them, some of them read the passages aloud.

"This is awful!", yelled chiefsonny.

"Yes, absolutely dreadful.", agreed Jo Nathan.

The murmurs grew louder as everyone began to agree. They decided they were going to ask whoever was doing this to stop. But then they heard that oh so familiar scream. Rushing towards the sound, they noticed it was coming from Lightvayne's car. Upon entering, they found him slumped over his desk, pen and ink spilled onto it, dripping onto the carpet. As they moved his body, they noticed the cover of the book.

How To Get Away With Murder by The Eccentric Mystery Novelist


The Players Club:
1) Speed Bike Pro
2) hezekiah ?????
3) The Bandit
4) Ghowilo
5) EvilGuy0613
6) white lancer
7) Hindenburg
8) Lady Flare
9) Lightvayne Eccentric Mystery Novelist
10) CtR Black Passenger
11) Xhin
12) Pirate_Ninja Passenger
13) Jo Nathan
14) Kyon
15) Chaos Incarnate Butch Cassidy
16) Feral Wolf
17) chiefsonny

Ratio:
9: 4: 0

Roles:
Passengers x4, Watcher, Gambler, Doctor, Lovers
Jesse James, Bill Miner, Bandits x2



Round will end after 72 hours or after 7 votes for the same option.

There are 79 Replies

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At an eao meeting, math soon!

January 30, 2015
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Ghowilo

Absolutely dreadful!

January 30, 2015
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Jo Nathan

Okay so when we are speaking probabilty, we know that any one of us has a 5/13 chance of being mafia on average(I know the denominator varies but for simplicity sake). 5 chances to be on mafia every single game. If we were to consider any 5 games, we want to know, what is the chance that any person would be mafia at least once within this set of five games. To do this, we actually need to look at the chances of not being mafia every game, which is 8/13. We then must raise this number, 8/13, to the power of n, where n is the amount of games played, in this case 5. When we do this, we get 0.91 approximated to the nearest hundredth place. To find the probability that you would be mafia at least once in any given game you then multiply this number by 100.

The past four games Xhin played, he was not mafia. While yes, if we look only at this game he only had a 5/13 chance to be mafia, if we look at the previous set of 5 games including this one, he has a 91% chance of being mafia at least once which he hasn't yet.

January 30, 2015
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Ghowilo

...I just can't let logic like that slide
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

January 30, 2015
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Xhin
Sky's the limit

That's not gambler's fallacy, that's solid mathematics.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Set_theory

January 30, 2015
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Ghowilo

As soon as my phone gets a decent enough charge, I'll post my Probs and Stats notes on how this works.

January 30, 2015
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Ghowilo

Actually, sorry I did make a mistake explaining it, it's not that (5/13)^5 is .91, it's actually .0883. Where we get the .91 (and therefore 91%) from is actually because the equation to determine the probability is 1 - (p/q)^n

But still, the chance is 91%

January 30, 2015
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Ghowilo

Also, I'm not saying the chance was higher this game based on the last one, I'm saying the chance of you being town 5 games in a row is 9%

January 30, 2015
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Ghowilo

Or we could, like... not rely on irrelevant number mumbo jumbo to decide who we kill...

January 30, 2015
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Speed Bike Pro
 

9% is a number I'm not willing to ignore.

January 30, 2015
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Ghowilo

Yes, I know what set theory is.

However, whatever the hosts use to generate player roles isn't part of a larger set -- they are doing them at completely different times, probably using different random number generators if they're even using them at all, etc. The random outcomes of any one game have no correlation whatsoever to the random outcomes of any other game.

My chances of being mafia are entirely based on any player's chances of being mafia in whichever game we're playing. If I'm mafia five games in a row, my chance of being a mafia this game are still 5/17 (or whatever the ratio was. If I'm a townie five games in a row, my chances are still 5/17..

Now if the same RNG is being used for an entire set of numbers then the likelihood of any of the two numbers matching is going to be really low -- because RNG's are literally programmed to be "random". But that's not the case here.

If you flip a coin and get heads nine times in a row, your chances of getting heads again are 1/2, not 1/1024. If you flipped nine completely separate coins at nine completely separate parts of your life, then it would make sense for the tenth coin to have a 1/2 chance of getting tails because you know it's not causally connected to any other coin.

But if it's the same coin you think "ohhh well...."

January 30, 2015
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Xhin
Sky's the limit

I'm aware of the fact that the likelihood of anyone being mafia in any game is relatively the same. I just can't help but feel that is incredibly unlikely that you'd not be mafia this many times in a row. Idk I could possibly be wrong but I really think you're mafia and that's not going to change. People can either agree or disagree for whatever reason but my mind is set.

January 30, 2015
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Ghowilo

Who the Hell is 'Spear Big Throw"?

Come on, guys, that's just cheap playing!

January 30, 2015
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Feral Wolf
The Rogue Wolf

I think that is Speed in disguise.

January 30, 2015
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Lady Flare

That's not gambler's fallacy, that's solid mathematics.

No, it's definitely gambler's fallacy. Please never go to a casino.

Also, I'm not saying the chance was higher this game based on the last one, I'm saying the chance of you being town 5 games in a row is 9%

You can't go back though. That's when you get in trouble.

Right now you can say, "the chance of Xhin not being mafia at all in the next 5 games is blahblah." But once you go back and say, "hey, Xhin was townie the last 4 games, he's more likely to be mafia this game!!" that's gambler's fallacy.

I just can't help but feel that is incredibly unlikely that you'd not be mafia this many times in a row. Idk I could possibly be wrong but I really think you're mafia and that's not going to change. People can either agree or disagree for whatever reason but my mind is set.

I really, really hope Xhin isn't mafia so it doesn't "confirm" your thoughts on this. Even if he isn't, I haven't been mafia since game 26 and I'm a townie again. I did miss one or two games in between, but I've still gone like 6 or 7 townie games in a row.

We have a sample size of ~35. It's not surprising at all that some people have been townie or mafia way more often than they should have been. That's just the way these things work. As we play more and more games, the numbers will even out.

Done talking about this because it's silly.

The ratio right now is 8:4, by the way. Not 9:4. The Lovers are still out there however, so it can drop pretty fucking quick.

Honestly, I think I may want a Watcher reveal at this point? Chaos was more of a blind shot, and he never really said anything too significant that we can go back and examine to find more mafia, so I'm not sure where to go from here. The Watcher can help us narrow things down, and we still have our Doctor to keep him safe for a few more rounds.

January 30, 2015
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The Bandit

Unless I misread, I think the Lovers don't both die if one of them dies in this game? Correct me if I'm wrong. Although the ratio can still drop quickly if the avenging Lover uses his/her kill on an innocent.

I agree that we shouldn't lynch Xhin based solely on probability across multiple games. Ghowilo, do you have any other reason for suspecting Xhin at this point?

January 30, 2015
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Jo Nathan

Unless I misread, I think the Lovers don't both die if one of them dies in this game? Correct me if I'm wrong. Although the ratio can still drop quickly if the avenging Lover uses his/her kill on an innocent.

Well that's lame. Don't change the function of the roles and keep the names the same. : /

If that's the case, then we are much better off and I'm not as happy about a Watcher claim.

January 30, 2015
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The Bandit

Not anymore than I have of suspecting anyone else.

January 30, 2015
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Ghowilo

I think Ghowlio is legitimately insane.

January 30, 2015
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Kyon

Took you that long huh?

January 30, 2015
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Ghowilo

Ghowilo, white lancer, EvilGuy, and Xhin are mafia. I'll eat a shoe if I'm wrong.

January 30, 2015
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Speed Bike Pro
 

Guess you better prepare to eat a shoe.

January 30, 2015
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EvilGuy0613

1. You're an asshole for playing dirty like this, whoever you are. I would be shocked if you aren't Mafia. In fact, I am officially making an appeal regarding this issue.

2. Start eating leather, because I am 100% sure you are wrong on at least one of those names, and 75% on at least one other.

Now that we know that LightVayne was the Writer, we can examine his entries. The first blatantly states that he saw Hindy leave his room. It's the second one we need to examine closely, as he makes two claims for one night, only one of which is true. Either he watched Xhin and never saw him leave, or he watched Hindy a second time and saw him leave again. I am more inclined to think the first option, since it makes sense that the Writer would sooner get a potential innocent lynched rather then wait for a confirmed Mafia.

I do believe that Xhin never left his cabin, making him innocent. I do believe that there is a chance Hindy is Mafia, but I feel more likely that he is a bystander being used.

This is the second round in a row that the Silencer didn't act. Odd considering that everybody left alive is known to be active.

Lastly, looking at the bandwagon for Chaos last round, it seems very unlikely that Lancer were have started a bandwagon against his own teammate were he Mafia. Mafia bandwagoners tend to jump on toward or at the end. This leads me to look more closely at Jo, Chief, and Flare, but not all three. One or two of them are likely Mafia in my book.

Out of the others, I feel pretty good that Bandit, Xhin, and Ghow(despite his highly erratic playing) are innocent. Kyon I can't read one way or the other due to his eternal poker-face. I'm more inclined to look toward EvilGuy and Speed.

Nowhere near ready to cast a vote, though.

January 30, 2015
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Feral Wolf
The Rogue Wolf

I wasn't the one who changed my name if that's what you're talking about. An epic memer admin is at fault for that one, probably Xhin. I can't change it back though, it automatically filters "Speed Bike Pro" to "Spear Big Throw".

January 30, 2015
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Speed Bike Pro
 

My apologies. I'll go yell at Xhin, then.

January 30, 2015
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Feral Wolf
The Rogue Wolf

Hello!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Anyway, Ghowilo's bizarre insistence on buttfuck numbers may be a ploy to confuse the fuck out of everyone, therefore aiding the Mafia. Or maybe it's just me who is utterly dumbfounded by everything he says. Just food for thought.

January 30, 2015
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Hindenburg
Life's path is never straight.

it looks like we have nothing to go on this round. i certainly have done suspicions, but they're almost certainly wrong. so without further ado...

January 31, 2015
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Xhin
Sky's the limit

Well, this round just got quiet. Nothing personal, just doing this to spur much needed activity...

January 31, 2015
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Feral Wolf
The Rogue Wolf

Mafia bandwagoners tend to jump on toward or at the end. This leads me to look more closely at Jo, Chief, and Flare, but not all three


Well I find that interesting since you voted on the same day, Tuesday Jan. 27th.

January 31, 2015
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chiefsonny
 

How DARE YOU

January 31, 2015
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Speed Bike Pro
 

Ugh, I don't know who to vote for.

We have about 24 hours. I'm fine with Speed? But I think that's only because there's no one else that stands out to me. There just doesn't seem to be a lot to go on this game. : /

We're down to basically mislynch or lose tomorrow if we mislynch today (the only save would be if the Doctor blocks the kill either night). Maybe killing Hidenburg today is the better play? Or maybe the Watcher should come forward today.

What I'm worried about is, if we fuck up today, tomorrow it won't take much for the mafia to put us in a bad spot. If the mafia have killed the Watcher or kill the Watcher tonight and hide the body, we're fucked. That's all it will take to give them today. At least if we ask him to come forward today it's less likely that the mafia have killed him and hidden the body.

It doesn't even take that to put us in a bad spot tomorrow though. Say we're in mislynch or lose tomorrow, and we ask for a role reveal. One mafia can just claim Watcher, and now we're basically coin flipping for the game. Being 50/50 in that spot is a much better deal for the mafia, because if we pick bad we lose. If we pick good, they're still in the game and know who the Watcher is.

So yeah. I'm flip flopping again and asking the Watcher to come forward. Hopefully hezekiah wasn't the Doctor and he can protect you.

January 31, 2015
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The Bandit

That's all it will take to give them today.

*give them the game.

January 31, 2015
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The Bandit

They can't hide the body anymore.

January 31, 2015
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Ghowilo

I don't think it'd be a very good idea if I died...........

January 31, 2015
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Speed Bike Pro
 

Neither do I. I do however feel like xhin and Hiddenburg are good targets

January 31, 2015
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Ghowilo

They can't hide the body anymore.

Dumb role names : /

I still think the watcher should come forward.

February 1, 2015
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The Bandit

Well, somebody pick somebody.

Ghow, your targeting of Hindenburg has less the zero basis because you outright stated that you want him dead for lols.

February 1, 2015
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Feral Wolf
The Rogue Wolf

I actually agree with Bandit.. if the watcher comes forward (and maybe they're silenced or already dead) the doctor can protect them and we can have something to go off this game.

February 1, 2015
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Xhin
Sky's the limit

Or maybe the doctors dead aND you already know this and want to kill the watcher because you're mafia xhin

February 1, 2015
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Ghowilo

I should have just let you die day one Feral.

February 1, 2015
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Ghowilo

There's a 1 in 8 chance that hezekiah was the Doctor. I mean, those are generally pretty good odds, but they aren't as great as they usually are in this kind of situation.

It's no doubt a risk, but I think it's worth it in this particular situation. It's definitely better than killing Speed off a random vote, and I think marginally better than killing Hidenburg.

February 1, 2015
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The Bandit

1 in 8 chance that hezekiah was the Doctor

no, that's not right at all.

i think we all need to take a break from math this game.

February 1, 2015
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The Bandit

Well, I'm at least convinced that Ghowilo is innocent this game. No sane mafia player would play that aggressively..

February 1, 2015
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Xhin
Sky's the limit

Ghow isn't Mafia. He's just a sociopath.

I'll remove my vote, but I WANT to see some discussion going on.

February 1, 2015
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Feral Wolf
The Rogue Wolf

At first, I was dismissing Ghowilo as just being Ghowilo but I actually wouldn't be very surprised if he was putting on a massive shitshow while the rest of the mafia just creep from under the bleachers.

February 1, 2015
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Speed Bike Pro
 

Pretty confused by this point....but Speed Bike Pro does raise an interesting theory about Ghowilo.

February 1, 2015
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EvilGuy0613

Actually, no he doesn't if you'd been paying attention at ALL and went back and deciphered the code I was laying out for you all. Anyways, Xhin... DIE!

Toggle Shut Up Feral


February 1, 2015
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Ghowilo

I don't want to kill Speed at this time. My reason being, he was the second person to vote for Chaos. This doesn't mean he's innocent but I'm loath to vote for him. White lancer was first to vote for Chaos, so unless he was throwing a teammate under the bus, I think he's probably innocent as well. And we have Ghowilo as the third vote. I skimmed over all the math stuff. But I think he is honestly trying to narrow down the field. Btw, I thought he was the Journalist.

So, do we believe Lightvayne? Xhin, despite being a very busy man, was one of the first people to catch the little Lovers alteration. Is he one of the Lovers? I could see the Mafia carefully reading over the Role descriptions. But would they want to point out a slightly hidden Town killing Role? Although this Role could backfire on the Town as well. Food for thought.

And who knows about Hindenburg. Because of how he plays, he's an easy lynching target. Did Lightvayne really investigate him or did he check someone else who didn't leave their cabin and thought we would go along with Hindenburg.

Let me think on this a little more.

February 1, 2015
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Lady Flare

I originally said that I didn't see why anyone would check Hidenburg, especially on the first night, but it's actually not a bad check at all. Since Hidenburg plays pretty much the same way every game (i.e. not at all) then it makes sense to try and get a read on him early.

Was Lightvayne thinking on that level, or was he just trying to scapegoat Hidenburg? Idk, but I would rather vote for Hidenburg than Speed or Xhin, because at least we have some reason to vote for Hidenburg.

Still hoping the Watcher comes forward. Or, at the very least, that he's not coming forward because he has no interesting results.

February 1, 2015
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The Bandit

Even if the watcher has no interesting results, it would still be useful to know who he has checked. He should have checked 4 people by now. Granted if they are all dead it wouldn't be. But even if 1 or 2 are still alive, it would narrow down the field.

And I would be open to lynching Hindy if nothing else comes along today.

February 1, 2015
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Lady Flare

We've got under 5 hours left. Going to go ahead and cast a vote for Hindenburg and hope I was wrong about Lightvayne.

February 1, 2015
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The Bandit

Man missing out in the early rounds costs me some serious lack of intel.

February 1, 2015
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Kyon

Welp, time to jump on the bandwagon.

February 1, 2015
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Xhin
Sky's the limit

For the record, I hope that gets quoted by ghowilo next round :p

February 1, 2015
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Xhin
Sky's the limit

Hey hindenburg, DIIIIIIEEEEEE!!!!!!!!

February 1, 2015
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Ghowilo

Well before Feral accuses me of waiting to the last minute and jump on a bandwagon I better get my thought out.

I've went back and read the post so many times it has made my hair hurt so I'm not going to do that again.

For what it's worth my gut and all the reading I've done leads me to believe that 3 of the 4 remaing Mafia are:

Xhin
Feral
Ghowilo

I think Speed might have it right about Ghowilo. First he post all this Math crap.
The he makes a post about only wanting to play so he can kill Hindenburg

if you'd been paying attention at ALL and went back and deciphered the code


And now he wants us to believe he's been sending us code{fp}

And now he wants to kill Xhin

Xhin... DIE!


Is this just another attempt to take attention away from other mafia members.

Well if it is. I'm not buying it anymore.

February 1, 2015
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chiefsonny
 

And now he's jumped on the Hindenburg bandwagon. That was who he wanted dead in the first place.

If Hindenburg is Mafia and he may well be, I'm not sure. With him it's hard to tell. But next round we had better start looking at Ghowilo as something more than the Mad Hatter.

February 1, 2015
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chiefsonny
 

It's okay, I'm going to spell it out in the end game. I'm rather disappointed in your observation skills, especially since I thought lady flare figured it out but was very wrong. Le sigh, can we just get these damn fuckers off the train so we can get to Vegas like damn.

February 1, 2015
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Ghowilo

I don't want to kill Hindenburg, but it seems the choice is made, and is better then nothing.

February 1, 2015
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Feral Wolf
The Rogue Wolf

Why the Fuck have you simply made me out to be the mad hatter when I've given you all you need to figure me out.

February 1, 2015
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Ghowilo

Whoops...

February 1, 2015
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Feral Wolf
The Rogue Wolf

Two more votes to end early.

February 1, 2015
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Ghowilo

Sigh...

Doc, I suggest you protect Ghow. From his last reply there, he is obviously the Watcher, and has decided to lead us in circles and use "code" to give his results rather then come out and say it and ask the doc for protection.

Ghow, subtlety rarely works out well in this game. Just speak up or don't. Don't waste our time trying to play text charades. (sad)

February 1, 2015
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Feral Wolf
The Rogue Wolf

Nah you're wrong I'm not the watcher, so doc please protect someone else. I guess you missed the whole "I'm only useful to myself" thing.

February 1, 2015
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Ghowilo

H-Hindy....

February 1, 2015
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Speed Bike Pro
 

Why the Fuck have you simply made me out to be the mad hatter when I've given you all you need to figure me out.


OH, I figured out that my dropping little hints like this:

Le sigh, can we just get these damn fuckers off the train so we can get to Vegas like damn.

"I'm only useful to myself" thing.


And all the math crap that you want us to think you're the Gambler.

February 1, 2015
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chiefsonny
 

Feral post this round.

Mafia bandwagoners tend to jump on toward or at the end. This leads me to look more closely at Jo, Chief, and Flare, but not all three. One or two of them are likely Mafia in my book.



I don't want to kill Hindenburg, but it seems the choice is made, and is better then nothing.


People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.

February 1, 2015
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chiefsonny
 

Chief, if I was you I would certainly look closer at me. The only reason I don't suspect myself is because I know I'm not Mafia.

I really do believe we are killing an innocent.

February 1, 2015
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Feral Wolf
The Rogue Wolf

Finally, someone figured it out. Congrats chief, do you want a cookie?

That's also why I laughed so hard at the whole "Gambler's fallacy" thing.

February 1, 2015
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Ghowilo

if you're the gambler then why not just claim gambler. the mafia aren't going to waste a kill on you and it gives us a confirmed innocent.

February 1, 2015
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The Bandit

why the fuck would you waste all that time writing that shit wtf

February 1, 2015
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The Bandit

Because I didn't think y'all were idiots?

February 1, 2015
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Ghowilo

#cutforhindenburg

February 1, 2015
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Speed Bike Pro
 

Also, because I was hoping for points for staying in my role throughout the game.

February 1, 2015
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Ghowilo

Sorry Man I'm bad with hints, riddles and especially deciphering codes. D=

February 1, 2015
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EvilGuy0613

I'm bad at thinking people aren't dumb when they act dumb.

February 1, 2015
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The Bandit

If you are the Gambler, you sure took a lot away from us looking at other people by posting all that goofy shit instead of just role claiming.

Like The Bandit said. Why would the Mafia go after someone that had no powers.

Well if I was wrong about you then I may have to rethink my choices.

February 1, 2015
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chiefsonny
 

...and round over. Hindenburg has been voted off the train.

February 1, 2015
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Feral Wolf
The Rogue Wolf

Hindenburg had been sitting comfortably within his cabin. Eating his breakfast, he noticed a dusty picture upon the wall in front of him. Of course there would be some things that were dirty: it seemed as if all of the staff had disappeared within the first few hours of getting on the train. Standing up to wipe the picture with a handkerchief, suddenly he heard the loud bang of his door being forcefully opened.

Before he could say any witty remark, Hindenburg was stabbed by his fellow passengers. As he slowly bled to death, he shouted, “YOU TRAITORS!” When the life finally left from his eyes, the passengers gingerly reached into his pocket. They pulled out a slip of paper that read: WANTED: Jesse James.

The Players Club:
1) Speed Bike Pro 
2) hezekiah  ?????
3) The Bandit 
4) Ghowilo 
5) EvilGuy0613 
6) white lancer 
7) Hindenburg  Jesse James
8) Lady Flare 
9) Lightvayne Eccentric Mystery Novelist 
10) CtR Black  Passenger
11) Xhin 
12) Pirate_Ninja  Passenger
13) Jo Nathan 
14) Kyon 
15) Chaos Incarnate  Butch Cassidy
16) Feral Wolf 
17) chiefsonny

Ratio:
9:3: 0

Roles:
Passengers x4, Watcher, Gambler, Doctor, Lovers
Bill Miner, Bandits x2


Round will end after 24 hours or after all Night Actions are complete.

February 1, 2015
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Female Alpha Wolf

This thread is locked