I have a long day of classes today so I'll be back later with my thoughts. Just once again reiterating that we shouldn't let the vote be influenced by hezekiah at all. I'll post my analysis later this evening.

no surprises overnight, but EG was the townie claim I doubted least so I'm not too thrilled on that choice. It wasn't left-field nonsense, at least, so w/e.

also given that I've been surprised before in this game, I would greatly appreciate HELIUS INPUT PLEASE:

is the Admirer-turned-SK undetectable at night?

if the Granny were to be lynched to make the ratio 1-1, would the Journalist be counted as "surviving" when scores are given out?

(busy now mafaia later)

I do have a question though for when I get back later: If the Mafia Investigator put in a night action for investigation on the night that they were killed by the Serial Killer, would the mafia still have gotten their results?

I stand by my suspicions from last round that P_N is the Serial Admirer. Will post more and make a vote once I'm back on my computer.

Looking back at previous rounds, I came to the same conclusion as BY. P_N's level of activity seems to be the closest match to what we've seen the SK do. BY's been too active to miss a round, and AJ's been more inactive than I'd assume a power role would ever be.

Also, I'll point out that Ghowilo considered P_N to be the most likely SK before his death last night (see 1413654355 in Day 6).

Yeah yeah ok hezekiah don't exactly think you're qualified to contribute to this discussion seeing as you'd benefit if we mislynch based on your information........

(sorry ily i just want to emphasize that we REALLY shouldn't listen to hezekiah at all)

Still at school will post more thoughts later

I do have a lot to say and have been writing stuff out but I honestly don't think I have enough time to post all that I'd like to at the moment :(.

I just wanted to say that my two main suspects right now are Pirate_Ninja and Apollo. The tl;dr version of my arguments being:

PN seemed against EvilGuy dying, and wasn't against hezekiah dying (specifically stating this in the last round,) yet didn't vote to change the outcome of the last round in any way. I would think if he was against EvilGuy dying of all people, but didn't care if hezekiah died, that he would at the very least have put a vote in for hezekiah to take the vote lead off of EvilGuy. Instead, he waited it out it seems.

In an early thread (Day 4,) when PN was talking about the roles that are hindered by the granny remaining secret, he left out the Serial Killer. Could be used to argue he forgot about the Serial Killer (which he wouldn't if he was the Serial Killer) or that he left it off because it was his role. This one is a bit of a stretch.

On Day 3, Apollo voted for Castrael when there was, imo, no good reason to be voting for Castrael (there were just a few people bandwagoning Castael votes.) I remember this distinctively striking me as suspicious when it happened. I feel that as a town-sided player Apollo is usually more careful with her votes.

Lightvayne, when referring to the serial killer, used gender-specific pronouns when talking about the Serial Killer, referring to the SK as "him." While this isn't hard evidence (and could even be used to argue a case against it being Apollo,) I feel that it is much more typical and easier to avoid gender-specific pronouns unless you have the intent to mislead people as has been done in the past. The last paragraph of the post where Lightvayne talks about the SK almost seemed entirely irrelevant, as if he said it exclusively to draw attention to him calling the SK "him." It is entirely plausible that he knew Apollo was the Serial Killer but wanted to mislead the town for his own reasons (that is, if we lynched him and used the information he gave, we might end up not lynching Apollo because of what he said.)

Just some thoughts I wanted to bring up since I'm a little busy for a full-on analysis post like I intended (and will be until tomorrow evening :(.. ). Sorry if they're awkwardly-worded too. I tried to summarize them while not excluding key points.

And that is to say I haven't been particularly suspicious of Black Yoshi as of lately. Feel free to change my mind if you guys have any thoughts on the matter.

nonono I specifically mean the survival point bit. As I recall, when the mafia tie the ratio and win, the remaining town-sided players are typically given a point for surviving (even though the implication is that they have lost their majority and would be helpless to avoid dying in the "epilogue" of the game).

I was just trying to establish whether the Journalist would get one in that case, because that could sway his decision if the game did come down to 1-1-1. So, would you grant the survival point to the last non-Killer standing, or would you take the "wins the game as the last player standing" wording of the Serial Killer role in the role document to the letter?


bbs sharing my own thoughts and addressing the case against me

MM9:

I thought we were going to end up with either a tie (No Kill) or a Journalist lynch, and wasn't sure which I preferred so I ended up deferring to you guys (in retrospect actually voting NK and possibly changing later would've made more sense). If I had been around when you changed your vote I'd have said/done something...but I'd already gone to bed because my schedule and life are an erratic disaster lately.

that was the day the original Serial Killer died and the Admirer took over. Since there's only the one Serial Killer thread, I figured that meant that the new SK was able to see who their predecessor targeted. I intentionally left the Admirer/SK2 off that list because I figured they already knew who to avoid.

but later in Day 4, we were told that "All mafia members move at night regardless of inactivity or position" - something that I didn't expect (otherwise I wouldn't have specified Investigator when I said SDYoshi moving at night seemed more likely to color him mafia than Journalist). So I realized I had better make sure my Granny assumption was accurate before I did anything that relied on that. As a result, on Day 5 I asked Helius, who confirmed that the Admirer can see the original SK's posts. With that settled, I requested that the Granny roleclaim to avoid being lynched since the only anti-town role still alive already knew who had the role (you actually gave that same explanation when you claimed a little while later, so I thought you might've missed that part of my post).

---

BY:

I'll have more to say on the subject (particularly if you answer this), but why the change of heart (again)? You reined in your suspicions of me after nobody died Night 5, so I'm curious what would bring them back (assuming you're innocent and trying to lynch the Admirer).


(ok sorry I think I need to save the part about my suspicions until morning)

ok hi time for more rambling, now of BY and AJ:

the problem with Admirer-hunting is that we have less to work with than against a mafia team. The person we want is someone who would've wanted the mafia gone like any old Townie, but their real loyalty was to the Serial Killer, Jo Nathan. Unsurprisingly, I don't really see anything from either suspect that connects them to JN. So instead, we have the following to go on:

Night 4: Admirer kills Bubba (Investigator)
Night 5: Admirer doesn't kill
Night 6: Admirer kills Ghowilo (Apprentice Tracker)

N6 is pretty irrelevant, because "basically confirmed town power role" was by far the most sensible kill to make. N4 strikes me as a night where the Admirer either wanted to hurt the mafia or simply speed the game along by going for two deaths in the night. Kyon and Ghowilo had both claimed roles, so one of them was likely to be mafia-killed (and both were Journalist bait). Night 5, though, looks to be either a slip-up where the Admirer missed the round deadline, or an intentional effort to make it look like that happened.

Apollo seems more likely to be responsible in the first case, as BY has been more active. But her first post on Day 6 immediately called attention to her absence:

skipping a night kill and then highlighting your own inactivity seems a risky strategy (though not unthinkable).


now, on the other hand, on Day 6 Black Yoshi quickly reaffirmed he was active (the round started late, but he posted eleven minutes in). During the round, he claimed that he had been suspicious of me ("the Admirer is among the more active of us"), but that the deathless night made him second-guess that ("which leads me to believe that s/he was either a) busybusybusy, b) tiredtiredtired, or c) both") - depicting the lack of a kill as unintentional. This pushes suspicion away from the active Townie claims (he and I, relatively) and onto Apollo and EvilGuy. Now that one of them is gone, he has for some reason abandoned that line of thinking and come back after the person who seemed to be raising more suspicion - me. And the Admirer only needs one more mislynch to get in range of a "hey Journalist help me lynch the Granny it'll be badass" ending (strictly speaking, without help to lynch Majora the Admirer can't do any better than a stalemate). The nature of his posts lately leaves me with the impression that they could definitely be a conscious effort on his part to lead us down this path of misfortune.

of the two, I think Black Yoshi is more likely the Admirer - but I'll freely admit that I do seem to misread his actions in Mafia a lot and I wouldn't be incredibly shocked if it were Apollo.

sooooooooo with all that said, do we want to take a shot today?

if we mislynch to 2-1-1, a nightkill brings us to either 2-1 (Majora has to choose correctly or it's a stalemate) or 1-1-1 (hezekiah needs to side with the town or the town loses).

if we No Kill, a nightkill will put us at 3-1 (like today but without Journalist influence) or 2-1-1 (hezekiah needs to side with the town, which defies his best interest to draw out the game, or we get deadlocked to 1-1-1, at which point see above).

if we lynch the Journalist (sorry to bring this up again, hez - I have nothing against you, but just working under the assumption you're playing a truly neutral and self-serving game), a nightkill puts us at 2-1 (as in the first case).

Quite frankly, I say we have to take a shot today, and my only reason for second-guessing myself was the lack of a Night 5 Serial Kill, when the Admirer had been active the whole game through beforehand. As I said last round (minus the second-guessing part), if we assume that Majora and hezy are who they say they are (I'd be hesitant to believe otherwise since both have provided ample proof of their roles and neither has done anything to suggest guilt), and knowing that I'm a Townie, that leaves you and Apollo, and she's been busybusybusy the whole game, so that leaves...you. You're the only person amongst those of us still alive who's been active enough this whole game to be the Serial Admirer. Therefore...

I don't think putting votes in just yet is a good idea, since we haven't heard from Apollo at all (no point in rushing into a vote just yet.) ESPECIALLY WITH THE JOURNALIST ALIVE (seriously I would still be up for lynching him today. Hopefully now my concerns seem a lot less paranoid.)

While Apollo has been busy, nobody has been inactive enough to not be the admirer. The admirer has only been in play for a few day rounds and Apollo has been active for that time, as has PN, as have you, BY.

You know what...

Probably seems hypocritical to be putting a vote in for hezekiah after saying it's too early to be putting votes in but I'm honestly not too hopeful for that bandwagon to get kicked off too soon.

but why

I outlined the other possibilities, and as a whole they seem to me to offer better chances for the town - or at least good enough to be worthy of consideration beyond "no because I wanna lynch now." Insisting to the contrary makes me wary, because I think a rush to lynch a Townie claimant today is exactly the route the Admirer would want us to take.


active how? Unless you are the Admirer, you don't know how active the Admirer has been - "oh shit I forgot to kill someone" looks exactly the same as "lmbo watch this Helius I'ma kill nobody and see how confused they get, this is gonna be MAD JOKES XDDDD" from the outside. The Admirer is given the Serial Killer's identity and then does absolutely nothing of note until the Serial Killer dies. The Admirer gained an active role on Day 4, and has carried out the actions I outlined above - one interesting kill, one lack of a kill, and one obvious kill. Posting a name in a thread during a 24-hour period doesn't take a staggering amount of work. Hell, if Apollo is the Admirer, she could be checking in on this topic between classes and snickering while we're at each others' throats...and she doesn't need to do anything more than swoop in later to pick off the leftovers.

BTW, I wrote that article early yesterday afternoon.

I somehow missed PN's reply outlining the options for today's vote.

I don't think I'd feel comfortable with a no-kill unfortunately. Just because the serial killer has pretty much seen our hand as far as suspicions go and they'll likely know who to kill to make the nightkill not reveal anything that makes it any more clear who the killer is.

But I do think hezekiah is a good lynch.

And hezekiah's actions this round perfectly exemplify why I wanted him lynched last round. He's literally no help to us and is just going to get in the way.

Because lobbying nonstop to lynch someone you know not to be the SK is so likely to win you the game?

I've given reasons for why I'm voting the way I am, even citing a confirmed innocent from last round.

when said person (a third-party, non-town-aligned player) is pushing to lynch a Townie for no good reason, it's a step in the right direction.

no matter who you think the Admirer is, I see no reason for someone on the town's side to push the lynch of a Townie claimant today unless your chief concern is "I wanna win now in case I get killed and lose my survival point!!!" It's a selfish risk that could cost the town as a whole.


being a confirmed innocent is liable to get you killed, but it doesn't mean he had the right idea who was behind it:

his top suspect ended up being a Townie, and I'm telling you that his second choice is as well. Ghowilo's tracking served us well, but at this point we need to look beyond those words. If you want to follow the word of confirmed innocent Ghowilo, I'd instead go with this portion of the same reply:



and you know who else is essentially a confirmed innocent to listen to? The Granny.

A lot to read but still got some of it in.

So for the entire town, the Serial Killer is obviously narrowed down to 3 people. For PN, BY, and I, it's narrowed down to 2 or 1 (I know it's PN or BY, BY knows it's PN or me, PN knows it's BY or me) except for the fact that the Serial Killer knows they're Mafia and is just going to use the same exact strategy as the remaining two townies on the outside.

On that note PN and BY might be the 2 players I am historically worst at reading in Mafia so I have a hard time trusting my own judgment as it is. Just puts me in a sticky situation I guess.

Still don't think we should kill hezekiah, I'd rather do an NK than kill him since killing him doesn't really do anything for anyone as long as we don't bother listening to him.

Putting my vote in tomorrow because hopefully I'll come up with something in the meantime.

ugh

ugh

When/if it gets to a ratio of 1-1-1 it's not really going to matter whether or not we listen to him. Killing him now is a safer move than letting him live. Killing him yesterday would have been a safer move.

Also want to bring up the fact that a few rounds back Lightvayne made the implication that hezekiah was working with the mafia. Not sure how credible that was since OOG is not allowed, but it's something to keep in mind.

ALSO before I leave just to kind of support my view: The serial killer objectively benefits from the Journalist being alive. Hezekiah himself even said as much a few rounds back. Would like to get this out of the way.

also, if we No Kill and a Townie is killed tonight, the resulting 2-1-1 ratio means that the town can no longer lynch anyone without the help of the Journalist.

the good news, however, is that Apollo just posted without breaking the 2-2 tie in votes. If she were the Admirer, she could've just ended the round by voting for me, nightkilled Black Yoshi, and started Day 8 with "hezekiah, ol' buddy, how about you help me lynch Majora?" There'd be no reason for her not to take advantage of the opportunity, so I can reasonably assume she's innocent.

however, I acknowledge that this isn't really proof to you guys because it's based on the knowledge that I'm a Townie. I know I'm a Townie, but to the rest of the town that's not a given. In an effort to prove my claim, I come bearing one more bit of evidence:


on Day 3, I didn't post until the round was almost over. And although nobody seemed to be keeping track, the reason I posted was because I was one of only two players who hadn't said anything that round. With a Silencer in play (Day 3 was the day we lynched Roxas), that kind of information is sometimes useful - so I decided to speak up real quick and confirm who the silenced party was (assuming, of course, that the Silencer had used his power).

that man's name?



Jo Nathan was the Serial Killer, and the Admirer knew that from the beginning. If I were the Admirer, the number one thing I'd concern myself with would be to avoid associating myself with the Serial Killer out in the open. And if I were the Admirer, I sure as hell wouldn't be supporting a lynch of the only other player who'd ever vote to kill the Granny.


I am one of the two remaining Townies, and based on her non-vote last night I assume Apollo is the other. If you'd like to end the game today without any further casualties, vote to lynch the Admirer: Black Yoshi.

I didn't want to say anything until the next day round but I have been suspicious of Black Yoshi. I was hoping that by giving the impression that I wasn't suspicious of him at all (assuming he wasn't the serial killer) that the serial killer would kill him over PN/Apollo. But seeing as reasonable suspicions have been brought up against him there's no point in hiding that anymore.

My evidence against PN was kind of BS, but my points against Apollo were legitimate. I do think something was off about her vote for Castrael, and maybe it's confirmation bias, but I do think the Lightvayne observation has some merit to it (would you really say "I never would have thought ____ was _____" in a game like this, for any of the remaining players? I feel like it was intentional misdirection in more ways than one.)

But I'm also suspicious of BY and will post my reasons later (school now.)

HOWEVER I do still think voting for hezekiah is the best option atm,

All I have to say is that lynching me would only hurt the Town's chances of winning.

Are you going to consider changing your vote to hezekiah?

Directed to Apollo and Black Yoshi:

If you are a townie and you vote to lynch hezekiah, you will, in the next day round, be 100% certain who the serial killer is, since there will only be one Townie left. And we'll still have an opportunity to lynch someone.

Right now, if we lynch someone other than hezekiah, we're taking a 1/3 chance. Objectively speaking, we'll have a better chance to win as a whole if hezekiah is lynched today. Nobody should have a reason not to go along with this except the Serial Killer.

If you lynch me today, you'll be left with a 33% chance of winning, since the SK could (and should) opt not to kill and make you take a 1 in 3 shot at a lynch in Day 8 instead of 1 in 2. Killing P_N (or BY or AJ) today, at worst, gets the town the 33% of them being the SK plus whatever lynch opportunity is presented to the town in Day 8, for which there are numerous variables.

If the SK no-kills we can simply no-lynch until they do.

And then they'd just keep not killing... {fp}

Fortunately that would not continue forever. I like these odds better than keeping you alive.

Besides, you're assuming the Serial Killer wouldn't kill anyone. I think they likely would.

And the town could (and should) no-kill.

But again, I think the majority of players alive would avoid a stalemate for the sake of the game. Maybe I'm wrong.

I still think lynching you is the objectively best move right now, because it's setting us up for a better position, rather than if we take a 1/3 chance now and lose it.

the worst that could happen with a lynch of hezekiah is that we face the exact same decision tomorrow, only without the involvement of someone who

isn't town-sided

benefits from dragging out the game by lynching innocents

is openly giving strategic advice to the Admirer

outright said on Day 6 "hey SK, you better not kill me, cuz I'm you're only shot at victory"

Not lynching hezekiah today would basically leave the end of the game in his hands for voting, which would be stupid/boring since he would literally decide the winning side despite being a third-party. I'm fine with killing him even if just to avoid it coming to that.

Some game a few months back I remember being Mafia with BY and I can't go back and l

die journalist

lol mobile anticlimacticism

*I can't go back and look at that game because mobile but I suggest everyone go back to it and compare his behavior. I'll gladly do this if I'm still alive next round though, and I'll even dig some more because he's had quite a few run-ins as Mafia recently.

I haven't gotten a vibe from him so much believing PN is not guilty. I don't think he would be nearly this active if he were the SK. By logical exclusion that should leave BY as the SK but I still feel like I'm missing something so idk

Lynch Journalist, me PN or BY die, lynch SK

ok bye